Systems Approaches for EOR Screening(提高采收率方法筛选)
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Imprecision of definition E.g. are we talking about low permeability, 10mD, 10.07mD, a high permeability streak in a low permeability matrix?
Conflict
Equivocation, ambiguity, anomaly or inconsistency in the data or evidence. E.g. a major difference in the log and core derived permeability
Incompห้องสมุดไป่ตู้eteness That which we do not know, know we do not know, do not know
Relevance
Reservoir Management Systems
Measurement and Monitoring Uncertainty Data and Information Uncertainty
we do not know E.g. we are unable to define all the possible alternatives, an effect left out of our model. Issues and information that may or may not impact on the proposition addressed. E.g. data becomes evidence when it is relevant to one or more of the hypotheses being considered.
Outcomes Surprise
EOR Decisions Risk
Reservoir Operating Plan and Execution Vulnerability
Geological and Engineering Models Uncertainty
Operating Environment Reservoir Simulation or Models for Prediction Uncertainty Hazards
Evidence Against – Past Failures 2
• Chemicals in the field different from laboratory studies; • Lack of monitoring in the field – and clear definition of success • Loss of chemicals due to thermal, chemical, shear or biological degradation • Loss of injectivity or lack of control of in situ advance • Too late in application in field life • No recoverable oil in chosen location
The Nature of Uncertainty
Randomness
Vagueness
Lack of a specific pattern in the data or evidence. E.g. noise in oil production figures – detecting oil uplift
Systems Approaches for EOR Screening
Alistair Fletcher Parr Systems Pty. Ltd Curtin University of Technology Perth, Australia
Representing Uncertainty
Evidence that A is successful
The likelihood of an uncertain event or behavior, and its consequences for our intended purpose or objectives, set in a context that needs to be understood Vulnerability Susceptibility to disproportionate damage from an event or behaviour Hazard Surprise A set of incubating preconditions for failure An unexpected event – an unrecognised risk
Uncertainty
Evidence that A is not successful
0
1
Systems Concepts
Uncertainty Risk A property of information – randomness, fuzziness, conflict, incompleteness and relevance
Evidence Against – Past Failures 1
• Inappropriate / unscaled laboratory data; • Lack of reservoir description and lack of EOR process understanding – particularly up-scaling; • Inappropriate or irrelevant numerical simulations; • Inappropriate or lack of economic analysis; • Insufficient geological understanding (permeability, heterogeneity, Sorw, faults and fractures)
Conflict
Equivocation, ambiguity, anomaly or inconsistency in the data or evidence. E.g. a major difference in the log and core derived permeability
Incompห้องสมุดไป่ตู้eteness That which we do not know, know we do not know, do not know
Relevance
Reservoir Management Systems
Measurement and Monitoring Uncertainty Data and Information Uncertainty
we do not know E.g. we are unable to define all the possible alternatives, an effect left out of our model. Issues and information that may or may not impact on the proposition addressed. E.g. data becomes evidence when it is relevant to one or more of the hypotheses being considered.
Outcomes Surprise
EOR Decisions Risk
Reservoir Operating Plan and Execution Vulnerability
Geological and Engineering Models Uncertainty
Operating Environment Reservoir Simulation or Models for Prediction Uncertainty Hazards
Evidence Against – Past Failures 2
• Chemicals in the field different from laboratory studies; • Lack of monitoring in the field – and clear definition of success • Loss of chemicals due to thermal, chemical, shear or biological degradation • Loss of injectivity or lack of control of in situ advance • Too late in application in field life • No recoverable oil in chosen location
The Nature of Uncertainty
Randomness
Vagueness
Lack of a specific pattern in the data or evidence. E.g. noise in oil production figures – detecting oil uplift
Systems Approaches for EOR Screening
Alistair Fletcher Parr Systems Pty. Ltd Curtin University of Technology Perth, Australia
Representing Uncertainty
Evidence that A is successful
The likelihood of an uncertain event or behavior, and its consequences for our intended purpose or objectives, set in a context that needs to be understood Vulnerability Susceptibility to disproportionate damage from an event or behaviour Hazard Surprise A set of incubating preconditions for failure An unexpected event – an unrecognised risk
Uncertainty
Evidence that A is not successful
0
1
Systems Concepts
Uncertainty Risk A property of information – randomness, fuzziness, conflict, incompleteness and relevance
Evidence Against – Past Failures 1
• Inappropriate / unscaled laboratory data; • Lack of reservoir description and lack of EOR process understanding – particularly up-scaling; • Inappropriate or irrelevant numerical simulations; • Inappropriate or lack of economic analysis; • Insufficient geological understanding (permeability, heterogeneity, Sorw, faults and fractures)