某医药公司产品组合优化(内部资料).pptx
合集下载
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性，平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益，请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间：9:00-18:30)。
Question: How many alternative approaches should the firm pursue at each NPD stage?
June 4-8, 2004
4
Optimizing New Drug Pipeline
Model Output For each phase in development, we derived the expected reward, variance, and likelihood of having a successful drug candidate. For example, for Phase III, they are, respectively,
Hypertension
130 3078 2036 655 6773
94 1484 5174
Lead firm
BMS MonsanLeabharlann Baiduo
Merck Eli Lilly
actual pipeline
21? 222 2 2 1 111
pipeline structure recommended by
E[1(n1)] [1 (1 p1)n1 ]E[0 (s1 0)] n1c1
V[1 (n1 )] (1 p1 ) n1 [1 (1 p1 ) n1 ]E[0 (s1 0)]2
L1 (n1 ) 1 (1 p1 ) n1
We solve for the optimal number of approaches to be supported at each phase in development
Therapeutical Classes
Also known as therapeutical areas, groups, or categories
• e.g., Anti-infective products
Each class has many different indications We use the term “portfolio” to represent the NPD structure for many different indications, within or across different therapeutical classes. A portfolio has many different pipelines (or projects).
From Pipelines To Portfolios
Min Ding Jehoshua Eliashberg
Pennsylvania State University University of Pennsylvania
Choice Symposium June 4-8, 2004
Outline
Some theoretical insights An empirical demonstration -- GlaxoSmithKline
June 4-8, 2004
2
Terms Used in Presentation
Indications
Also known as disease Each indication is considered as one business opportunity
Optimizing New Drug Pipeline – one business opportunity
Ding and Eliashberg, 2002, Management Science
From Pipelines to Portfolios – many business opportunities
Indication
E ($ m)
Infectious
AIDS
NSAID
Arthritis
Depression
Neuropharmacolo gical Class
Migraine
Alzheimer’s Disease
Arrhythmia
Cardiovascular Class
High Cholesterol
• e.g., AIDS
We use the terms “pipeline or project” to represent the NPD structure for a given indication We use “approach” to represent a specific way (e.g., a compound, a biological molecule) of drug development tailored for a given indication.
June 4-8, 2004
3
Optimizing New Drug Pipeline
An Example
Bristol-Myers Squibb wants to develop a preventive HIV vaccine ...
Pre-clinical trial
NPD in Pharmaceutical Industry
June 4-8, 2004
5
Optimizing New Drug Pipeline
One Key Insight - A Pattern of Underspending? (Ding and Eliashberg, Management Science, 2002)
Therapeutical Class
Clinical Phase I
Clinical Phase II
Clinical
1
launch
Phase III
Alternative approaches: subunit vaccine, recombinant vector vaccine,
peptide vaccine, virus-like particle vaccine, plasmid DNA vaccine, “naked DNA”vaccine, wholeinactivated virus vaccine, live-attenuated virus, etc.
June 4-8, 2004
4
Optimizing New Drug Pipeline
Model Output For each phase in development, we derived the expected reward, variance, and likelihood of having a successful drug candidate. For example, for Phase III, they are, respectively,
Hypertension
130 3078 2036 655 6773
94 1484 5174
Lead firm
BMS MonsanLeabharlann Baiduo
Merck Eli Lilly
actual pipeline
21? 222 2 2 1 111
pipeline structure recommended by
E[1(n1)] [1 (1 p1)n1 ]E[0 (s1 0)] n1c1
V[1 (n1 )] (1 p1 ) n1 [1 (1 p1 ) n1 ]E[0 (s1 0)]2
L1 (n1 ) 1 (1 p1 ) n1
We solve for the optimal number of approaches to be supported at each phase in development
Therapeutical Classes
Also known as therapeutical areas, groups, or categories
• e.g., Anti-infective products
Each class has many different indications We use the term “portfolio” to represent the NPD structure for many different indications, within or across different therapeutical classes. A portfolio has many different pipelines (or projects).
From Pipelines To Portfolios
Min Ding Jehoshua Eliashberg
Pennsylvania State University University of Pennsylvania
Choice Symposium June 4-8, 2004
Outline
Some theoretical insights An empirical demonstration -- GlaxoSmithKline
June 4-8, 2004
2
Terms Used in Presentation
Indications
Also known as disease Each indication is considered as one business opportunity
Optimizing New Drug Pipeline – one business opportunity
Ding and Eliashberg, 2002, Management Science
From Pipelines to Portfolios – many business opportunities
Indication
E ($ m)
Infectious
AIDS
NSAID
Arthritis
Depression
Neuropharmacolo gical Class
Migraine
Alzheimer’s Disease
Arrhythmia
Cardiovascular Class
High Cholesterol
• e.g., AIDS
We use the terms “pipeline or project” to represent the NPD structure for a given indication We use “approach” to represent a specific way (e.g., a compound, a biological molecule) of drug development tailored for a given indication.
June 4-8, 2004
3
Optimizing New Drug Pipeline
An Example
Bristol-Myers Squibb wants to develop a preventive HIV vaccine ...
Pre-clinical trial
NPD in Pharmaceutical Industry
June 4-8, 2004
5
Optimizing New Drug Pipeline
One Key Insight - A Pattern of Underspending? (Ding and Eliashberg, Management Science, 2002)
Therapeutical Class
Clinical Phase I
Clinical Phase II
Clinical
1
launch
Phase III
Alternative approaches: subunit vaccine, recombinant vector vaccine,
peptide vaccine, virus-like particle vaccine, plasmid DNA vaccine, “naked DNA”vaccine, wholeinactivated virus vaccine, live-attenuated virus, etc.