北京市交通拥堵特征分析

摘要

摘要

伴随着人口的增长，经济的高速发展以及城市化水平的提高，城市机动车保有量急剧增长，城市交通拥堵状况也随之日益严峻。交通拥堵给居民的生产和生活带来了诸多不便，严重制约城市的可持续发展。拥堵问题始终是诸多学者和专家关注的焦点。而交通拥堵问题主要由交通供给和交通需求不均衡导致的。北京现阶段交通需求的特点：一是出行需求总量巨大超过了现阶段的道路供给水平；二是出行方式结构不合理，私家车占比过高，公共交通占比有待提高。本文以北京市为实证研究对象，阐述北京的交通拥堵特征，为北京交通拥堵治理和城市交通规划提出建议，也为其它特大城市乃至全国的交通规划提供参考和借鉴。

本文以交通供需理论、城市交通发展理论、需求管理理论作为理论基础，在总结相关理论和文献的基础上，首先对交通需求特征、交通供给特征进行分析，从宏观层面介绍北京市交通供需现状。然后依据抓取的数据对北京市道路拥堵特征进行了定性分析和描述性统计分析，分析了北京市交通拥堵的时间特征和拥堵的空间特征以及其他一些拥堵特征。最后采用多元对数回归模型，以线上抓取和实地调查的数据为基础，对道路拥堵与车辆数的关系以及道路交通拥堵的影响因素进行模型实证分析。

通过实证分析得出如下结论：一是在道路很通畅的情况下，车辆数的增加对拥堵几乎没有影响；之后伴随着车辆数的增加，拥堵呈现边际递增；在达到一定的车辆数之后，拥堵随着车辆数的增加呈现边际递减，并逐渐达到饱和。二是道路沿线是否有地铁对道路拥堵程度的影响不显著，公交站密度和公交专用道加重了高峰期的道路拥堵状况，人均GDP和常住人口对道路影响是显著的，这部分决定了出行需求总量。最后针对实证结论，本文提出应对交通拥堵的关键在于控制交通需求总量，优化出行结构，减少小汽车出行数量和比例，为了削减道路上行驶的车辆数，可以考虑征收拥堵费，利用经济杠杆，从总体上消减小汽车出行数量，限制特定时间特定路段的交通流量，调节交通流量的时空分布，达到缓解交通拥堵的作用。征收拥堵费的同时，需要相应的配套保障措施，提升公共交通的服务水平是必须的。

关键词：交通拥堵拥堵特征影响因素治理对策

ABSTRACT

With the growth of population, the rapid development of economy and the advancement of urbanization, the quantity of motor vehicles is increasing rapidly, and the traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious. Traffic congestion has brought a lot of inconvenience to urban residents' work and life, which has seriously restricted the sustainable development of the city. Traffic congestion has been the focus of attention of many scholars and experts. Urban traffic congestion is mainly caused by the imbalance of traffic supply and traffic demand. The characteristics of traffic demand in Beijing : firstly, huge amount of travel demand exceeds supply road level ; secondly, residents travel structure is not reasonable, the proportion of car trip is too high and the proportion of public transport needs to be improved. This paper takes Beijing city as the research object, describes the characteristics of traffic congestion in Beijing City, put forward the proposal for the Beijing city traffic congestion management and traffic planning and provide reference for other large city and even the country's transportation planning-center.

Based on the theory of traffic supply and demand, urban traffic development theory, demand management theory. based on summarizing the relevant theory and literature. Firstly, this article analyzes characteristics of traffic demand and traffic supply and introduces the status quo of traffic supply and demand in Beijing city from the macro level. Secondly,this article carries on the qualitative analysis and descriptive statistical analysis of the road traffic congestion in Beijing City; also the time characteristics of traffic congestion and the spatial characteristics of congestion in Beijing are analyzed. Thirdly, based on the data of the online grab and field survey, this article uses the polynomial regression model and the multiple regression model to analyze the relationship between the traffic congestion and the number of vehicles and the factors influencing the traffic congestion in Beijing city.

Through the analysis of the sample data, this article drawn the following conclusions: Firstly, in the frist stage, the increase of the number of vehicles on the road is very smooth, it has no effect on the number of vehicles; in the second stage, with the increase of the number of vehicles, the traffic congestion is increasing; in the third stage, after reaching a certain number of vehicles, the traffic congestion is decreasing and gradually reach saturation. Secondly whether there is a subway line along the road has no significant effect on road congestion degree; bus station and bus lane density