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txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
ACCELERATING INNOVATION IN ENERGY
Energy is Key . . . Now
October 22, 2002
This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion.
Source: McKinsey analysis; McKinsey corporate performance database
20
25
8
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
SURVIVORS UNDERPERFORM BECAUSE THEY FAIL TO CREATE, INNOVATE, AND EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGH
Source: McKinsey performance database 5
. . . IN FACT, MANY INDUSTRIES
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
RARELY OR NEVER OUTPERFORM
7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders: Select industries vs. economy
Economy normal range
Airlines
400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
Paper
400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
TRS relative to industry average 15%
10%
Attacker’s advantage
..becomes…
Survivor’s curse
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
1
5
10
15
Years in sample
* Three year rolling average 1962-95
1935
1955
1975
1995
2005E
• The S&P 500 is a
brutal, unemotional yardstick of performance
• The pace of
change is accelerating
Note: Number of exits averaged over twenty year period Source: McKinsey analysis
• Companies were removed only when they merged, got
acquired or went bankrupt
* Currently 2000 data has been updated only for high tech companies
Source: McKinsey’s long-term performance database
Telecom 400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
Toiletries 400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
1969 1971 1973 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1969 1971 1973 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Source: McKinsey performance database 6
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
IF YOU’RE A SURVIVOR, YOU’VE PROBABLY UNDERPERFORMED THE MARKET
7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders: Long-term survivors vs. economy
Financial data (60 items) for 1,067 companies in 16 industries for the period 1962-2000*
Selection criteria
Industry Airlines Commodity Chemicals Specialty Chemicals Defense Medical Supplies Software Paper Pharmaceuticals Soap Telecommunications Transportation Semiconductors Computer hardware
industries vs. economy
Pharmaceuticals 400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
Defence 400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
1969 1971 1973 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1969 1971 1973 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Economy return Economy normal range (90% confidence band) Economy survivors*
* Companies that were on the first S&P 500 list in 1957 and remained on the list through 1995 Source: McKinsey analysis, McKinsey corporate performance database
7
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
OUTPERFORMANCE COMES FROM
ATTACKERS
Total return to shareholders relative to industry of “new entrants” into top 80% by market cap*
Sales Rationality
Denial Inability to innovate
Creation and innovation
Focus on operations
Vision, ideas, passion
Survivors suffer from cultural lock-in
• The survivor’s mental
model focuses on protecting the core business
• Survivors are paralyzed
by fear of – Product cannibalization – Customer conflict – Dilutive acquisition
3
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN ANALYZED USING THE
McKINSEY LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE DATABASE (PDB)
PDB overview
Energy sectors
4
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
ACROSS ALL MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS,
NONE HAS EXHIBITED SUSTAINED
OUTPERFORMANCE ..
Economy normal range
7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders: Select
TODAY’S DISCUSSION
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
• Capital markets: ruthless driver of
innovation
• Creative destruction in the Energy Industry
• What can Houston do to lead innovation in
Commodity Chemicals
400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
Specialty Chemicals
400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
(“pure-play”)
• Had a market cap within the top 80% of all market cap values • Companies that IPOed in last 4 years met both market cap and
pure play criteria for the last 2 years
2
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
MARKETS WIN IN THE LONG TERM
Overall performance of S&P 500 would have been about 20% less per year…
… if it were made up of those companies on the list in 1957
of sales in the relevant SIC category
Companies
• U.S.-based • Belonged to a predetermined SIC code • Obtained at least 50% of their sales from specified SIC code
Energy?
1
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
LONG-TERM SURVIVAL IS DIFFICULT,
AND GETTING MORE SO
Implied lifetime in S&P 500 based on company exits in years
90
45 30 22 15
Network
Utilities Oil
Energy subtotal
Total
Number of companies
23 36 47 28 66 171 47 101 24 55 25 55 73
42
104 170
274
1,067
Industries
• Interesting dynamics to analyze • More than 10 players with 50%
ACCELERATING INNOVATION IN ENERGY
Energy is Key . . . Now
October 22, 2002
This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion.
Source: McKinsey analysis; McKinsey corporate performance database
20
25
8
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
SURVIVORS UNDERPERFORM BECAUSE THEY FAIL TO CREATE, INNOVATE, AND EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGH
Source: McKinsey performance database 5
. . . IN FACT, MANY INDUSTRIES
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
RARELY OR NEVER OUTPERFORM
7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders: Select industries vs. economy
Economy normal range
Airlines
400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
Paper
400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
TRS relative to industry average 15%
10%
Attacker’s advantage
..becomes…
Survivor’s curse
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
1
5
10
15
Years in sample
* Three year rolling average 1962-95
1935
1955
1975
1995
2005E
• The S&P 500 is a
brutal, unemotional yardstick of performance
• The pace of
change is accelerating
Note: Number of exits averaged over twenty year period Source: McKinsey analysis
• Companies were removed only when they merged, got
acquired or went bankrupt
* Currently 2000 data has been updated only for high tech companies
Source: McKinsey’s long-term performance database
Telecom 400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
Toiletries 400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
1969 1971 1973 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1969 1971 1973 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Source: McKinsey performance database 6
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
IF YOU’RE A SURVIVOR, YOU’VE PROBABLY UNDERPERFORMED THE MARKET
7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders: Long-term survivors vs. economy
Financial data (60 items) for 1,067 companies in 16 industries for the period 1962-2000*
Selection criteria
Industry Airlines Commodity Chemicals Specialty Chemicals Defense Medical Supplies Software Paper Pharmaceuticals Soap Telecommunications Transportation Semiconductors Computer hardware
industries vs. economy
Pharmaceuticals 400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
Defence 400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
1969 1971 1973 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1969 1971 1973 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Economy return Economy normal range (90% confidence band) Economy survivors*
* Companies that were on the first S&P 500 list in 1957 and remained on the list through 1995 Source: McKinsey analysis, McKinsey corporate performance database
7
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
OUTPERFORMANCE COMES FROM
ATTACKERS
Total return to shareholders relative to industry of “new entrants” into top 80% by market cap*
Sales Rationality
Denial Inability to innovate
Creation and innovation
Focus on operations
Vision, ideas, passion
Survivors suffer from cultural lock-in
• The survivor’s mental
model focuses on protecting the core business
• Survivors are paralyzed
by fear of – Product cannibalization – Customer conflict – Dilutive acquisition
3
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN ANALYZED USING THE
McKINSEY LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE DATABASE (PDB)
PDB overview
Energy sectors
4
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
ACROSS ALL MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS,
NONE HAS EXHIBITED SUSTAINED
OUTPERFORMANCE ..
Economy normal range
7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders: Select
TODAY’S DISCUSSION
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
• Capital markets: ruthless driver of
innovation
• Creative destruction in the Energy Industry
• What can Houston do to lead innovation in
Commodity Chemicals
400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
Specialty Chemicals
400% 300% 200% 100%
0% -100% -200%
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
(“pure-play”)
• Had a market cap within the top 80% of all market cap values • Companies that IPOed in last 4 years met both market cap and
pure play criteria for the last 2 years
2
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
MARKETS WIN IN THE LONG TERM
Overall performance of S&P 500 would have been about 20% less per year…
… if it were made up of those companies on the list in 1957
of sales in the relevant SIC category
Companies
• U.S.-based • Belonged to a predetermined SIC code • Obtained at least 50% of their sales from specified SIC code
Energy?
1
txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
LONG-TERM SURVIVAL IS DIFFICULT,
AND GETTING MORE SO
Implied lifetime in S&P 500 based on company exits in years
90
45 30 22 15
Network
Utilities Oil
Energy subtotal
Total
Number of companies
23 36 47 28 66 171 47 101 24 55 25 55 73
42
104 170
274
1,067
Industries
• Interesting dynamics to analyze • More than 10 players with 50%