QGDW552-2010电网短期超短期负荷预测技术规范
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4. 1 预测范围········································································································································································· 2 4. 2 数据管理········································································································································································· 2 4. 3 负荷分析········································································································································································· 3 4. 4 短期负荷预测 ································································································································································· 3 4. 5 超短期负荷预测 ····························································································································································· 3
2010-12-27 发布
2010-12-27 实施
国家电网公司 Biblioteka 布Q/GDW ５５２ — ２０１０
目次
前言 ··································································································································································· II 1 范围 ····························································································································································· 1 2 规范性引用文件·········································································································································· 1 3 术语和定义·················································································································································· 1 4 技术要求······················································································································································ 2
1
Q/GDW ５５２ — ２０１０
３． ８ 正常日 Normal Days 指一般工作日、休息日（周六、周日），但不包括节假日。
３． ９ 同类型日 Days with The Same Type 正常日预测中，与被预测日星期类型相同的负荷日（如同为星期一），称为被预测日的同类型日。节假
日预测中，同类型日为已发生的往年同一节假日（如被预测日为本年度除夕，其同类型日为上年度除夕）。 ３． １０
5. 1 评估点负荷预测偏差率·················································································································································· 4 5. 2 日平均负荷预测准确率·················································································································································· 4 5. 3 月平均日负荷预测准确率·············································································································································· 4 5. 4 日最高（低）负荷预测准确率 ······································································································································ 4 5. 5 月平均日最高（低）负荷预测准确率··························································································································· 5
相似度 Similarity Degree 描述两个负荷日由于星期类型、气象信息（温度、湿度、降雨、风速等）等因素的相似而表现出来 的接近程度。 ３． １１ 相似日 Similar Days 历史样本负荷日中与被预测日相似度较高的若干历史负荷日。 ３． １２ 实感温度（有效温度） Effective Temperature 人体在不同气温、湿度和风速条件下，所产生的热感觉指标。 ３． １３ 新息算法 New Information Method 以当前最新负荷的时刻作为基准点，利用最新的负荷信息开展负荷预测的方法。 ３． １４ 综合模型预测 Multiple Model Forecasting 对多种单一算法预测结果进行组合优化的预测方法。 ３． １５ 近大远小 The Longer Time, The Lower Reference Value 距离被预测日时间越长，对被预测日的参考价值越小。
I
Q/GDW ５５２ — ２０１０
前言
电网短期及超短期负荷预测是电网调度、运行控制等工作的重要基础，是制定电力系统运行方式的 重要依据，是电力系统安全、经济运行的前提和保障。为规范电网短期及超短期负荷预测应用技术，特 制定本标准。
本标准主要内容包括范围、规范性引用文件、术语及定义、技术要求、预测结果评估。 本标准制订时参考了相关国家标准、行业标准和国家电网公司企业标准。制订过程中多次召集科研、 生产单位的有经验的专家共同讨论，广泛征求意见。 本标准的附录 A、附录 B、附录 C 为资料性附录。本标准由国家电力调度通信中心提出并负责解释。 本标准由国家电网公司科技部归口。 本标准主要起草单位：华东电网有限公司、北京清软创新科技有限公司。本标准参加起草单位：福 建省电力有限公司、江苏省电力公司、华北电网有限公司、华中电网有限公司、河北省电力公司、中国 电力科学研究院、国网电力科学研究院。 本标准主要起草人：陈刚、王强、陆建宇、王亮、张晓园、刘有飞、程鑫、陈文浩、张涛、李锴、 张勇、罗欣、刘梅、郎燕生、丁恰。
附录 A（资料性附录） 数据处理典型算法简介 ··························································································· 6 附录 B（资料性附录） 短期负荷预测典型算法简介···················································································· 7 附录 C（资料性附录） 超短期负荷预测典型法简介·················································································· 10 编制说明 ··························································································································································11
II
Q/GDW ５５２ — ２０１０
电网短期超短期负荷预测技术规范
１ 范围
本规范规定了电力系统短期负荷预测及超短期负荷预测应遵循的基本技术要求和基本原则。 本规范适用于电网短期及超短期负荷预测工作。
２ 规范性引用文件
下列文件对于本文件的应用是必不可少的。凡是注日期的引用文件，仅注日期的版本适用于本文件。 凡是不注日期的引用文件，其最新版本（包括所有的修改单）适用于本文件。
ICS ２９．２４０29. ××× ×××
Q/GDW ５５２ — ２０１０
Q/GDW
国家电网公司企业标准
Q / GDW 552 — 2010
电网短期超短期负荷预测 技术规范
Technical specification for power system short-term and ultra-short term load forecasting
DL/T 1040—2007 电网运行准则 ３ 术语和定义
下列术语和定义适用于本规范。 ３． １
负荷 Power Load 本规范中负荷指某时刻本系统发、受电力（不含抽水负荷）的代数和。 ３． ２ 短期负荷预测 Short-Term Load Forecasting 短期负荷预测指次日到第八日的负荷预测，每日按照 96 点编制。被预测日的最高负荷和最低负荷 是指 96 点负荷预测结果中的最大值和最小值。 ３． ３ 超短期负荷预测 Ultra-Short Term Load Forecasting 超短期负荷预测指预测自当前时刻开始整五分钟、十分钟或十五分钟时刻点的未来若干时段的负 荷。 ３． ４ 历史控制负荷 Historical Load Control 历史控制负荷指通过需求侧管理、拉限电等措施限制的负荷。 ３． ５ 预测算法库 Forecast Algorithm Library 用某种数学模型来描述预测对象的发展变化规律的方法，称为预测算法。多种在技术路线上有明显 区别的负荷预测算法的集合，构成预测算法库。 ３． ６ 虚拟预测 Virtual Forecasting 对历史日负荷进行假定的负荷预测的过程。 ３． ７ 节假日 Festivals and Holidays 国家法定的重大节日或假日，包括农历节假日（春节、清明节、端午节、中秋节）和公历节假日（国 庆、元旦、五一节）等。
5 预测结果评估·············································································································································· 4
2010-12-27 发布
2010-12-27 实施
国家电网公司 Biblioteka 布Q/GDW ５５２ — ２０１０
目次
前言 ··································································································································································· II 1 范围 ····························································································································································· 1 2 规范性引用文件·········································································································································· 1 3 术语和定义·················································································································································· 1 4 技术要求······················································································································································ 2
1
Q/GDW ５５２ — ２０１０
３． ８ 正常日 Normal Days 指一般工作日、休息日（周六、周日），但不包括节假日。
３． ９ 同类型日 Days with The Same Type 正常日预测中，与被预测日星期类型相同的负荷日（如同为星期一），称为被预测日的同类型日。节假
日预测中，同类型日为已发生的往年同一节假日（如被预测日为本年度除夕，其同类型日为上年度除夕）。 ３． １０
5. 1 评估点负荷预测偏差率·················································································································································· 4 5. 2 日平均负荷预测准确率·················································································································································· 4 5. 3 月平均日负荷预测准确率·············································································································································· 4 5. 4 日最高（低）负荷预测准确率 ······································································································································ 4 5. 5 月平均日最高（低）负荷预测准确率··························································································································· 5
相似度 Similarity Degree 描述两个负荷日由于星期类型、气象信息（温度、湿度、降雨、风速等）等因素的相似而表现出来 的接近程度。 ３． １１ 相似日 Similar Days 历史样本负荷日中与被预测日相似度较高的若干历史负荷日。 ３． １２ 实感温度（有效温度） Effective Temperature 人体在不同气温、湿度和风速条件下，所产生的热感觉指标。 ３． １３ 新息算法 New Information Method 以当前最新负荷的时刻作为基准点，利用最新的负荷信息开展负荷预测的方法。 ３． １４ 综合模型预测 Multiple Model Forecasting 对多种单一算法预测结果进行组合优化的预测方法。 ３． １５ 近大远小 The Longer Time, The Lower Reference Value 距离被预测日时间越长，对被预测日的参考价值越小。
I
Q/GDW ５５２ — ２０１０
前言
电网短期及超短期负荷预测是电网调度、运行控制等工作的重要基础，是制定电力系统运行方式的 重要依据，是电力系统安全、经济运行的前提和保障。为规范电网短期及超短期负荷预测应用技术，特 制定本标准。
本标准主要内容包括范围、规范性引用文件、术语及定义、技术要求、预测结果评估。 本标准制订时参考了相关国家标准、行业标准和国家电网公司企业标准。制订过程中多次召集科研、 生产单位的有经验的专家共同讨论，广泛征求意见。 本标准的附录 A、附录 B、附录 C 为资料性附录。本标准由国家电力调度通信中心提出并负责解释。 本标准由国家电网公司科技部归口。 本标准主要起草单位：华东电网有限公司、北京清软创新科技有限公司。本标准参加起草单位：福 建省电力有限公司、江苏省电力公司、华北电网有限公司、华中电网有限公司、河北省电力公司、中国 电力科学研究院、国网电力科学研究院。 本标准主要起草人：陈刚、王强、陆建宇、王亮、张晓园、刘有飞、程鑫、陈文浩、张涛、李锴、 张勇、罗欣、刘梅、郎燕生、丁恰。
附录 A（资料性附录） 数据处理典型算法简介 ··························································································· 6 附录 B（资料性附录） 短期负荷预测典型算法简介···················································································· 7 附录 C（资料性附录） 超短期负荷预测典型法简介·················································································· 10 编制说明 ··························································································································································11
II
Q/GDW ５５２ — ２０１０
电网短期超短期负荷预测技术规范
１ 范围
本规范规定了电力系统短期负荷预测及超短期负荷预测应遵循的基本技术要求和基本原则。 本规范适用于电网短期及超短期负荷预测工作。
２ 规范性引用文件
下列文件对于本文件的应用是必不可少的。凡是注日期的引用文件，仅注日期的版本适用于本文件。 凡是不注日期的引用文件，其最新版本（包括所有的修改单）适用于本文件。
ICS ２９．２４０29. ××× ×××
Q/GDW ５５２ — ２０１０
Q/GDW
国家电网公司企业标准
Q / GDW 552 — 2010
电网短期超短期负荷预测 技术规范
Technical specification for power system short-term and ultra-short term load forecasting
DL/T 1040—2007 电网运行准则 ３ 术语和定义
下列术语和定义适用于本规范。 ３． １
负荷 Power Load 本规范中负荷指某时刻本系统发、受电力（不含抽水负荷）的代数和。 ３． ２ 短期负荷预测 Short-Term Load Forecasting 短期负荷预测指次日到第八日的负荷预测，每日按照 96 点编制。被预测日的最高负荷和最低负荷 是指 96 点负荷预测结果中的最大值和最小值。 ３． ３ 超短期负荷预测 Ultra-Short Term Load Forecasting 超短期负荷预测指预测自当前时刻开始整五分钟、十分钟或十五分钟时刻点的未来若干时段的负 荷。 ３． ４ 历史控制负荷 Historical Load Control 历史控制负荷指通过需求侧管理、拉限电等措施限制的负荷。 ３． ５ 预测算法库 Forecast Algorithm Library 用某种数学模型来描述预测对象的发展变化规律的方法，称为预测算法。多种在技术路线上有明显 区别的负荷预测算法的集合，构成预测算法库。 ３． ６ 虚拟预测 Virtual Forecasting 对历史日负荷进行假定的负荷预测的过程。 ３． ７ 节假日 Festivals and Holidays 国家法定的重大节日或假日，包括农历节假日（春节、清明节、端午节、中秋节）和公历节假日（国 庆、元旦、五一节）等。
5 预测结果评估·············································································································································· 4