曼昆《宏观经济学(第七版)》课件-第九章
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Chapter Nine 8
Classical macroeconomic theory applies to the long run but not to the short run–WHY? The short run and long run differ in terms of the treatment of prices. In the long run, prices are flexible and can respond to changes in supply or demand. In the short run, many prices are “sticky” at some predetermined level. Because prices behave differently in the short run than in the long run, economic policies have different effects over different time horizons. Let’s see this in action.
Chapter Nine
3
GDP is the first place to start when analyzing the business cycle, since it is the largest gauge of economic conditions.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official determiner of whether the economy is suffering from a recession. A recession is usually defined by a period in which there are two consecutive declines in real GDP.
Chapter Nine
6
1) Average workweek of production workers in manufacturing 2) Average initial weekly claims for unemployment insurance 3) New orders for consumer goods and materials adjusted for inflation 4) New orders, nondefense capital goods 5) Vendor performance 6) New building permits issued 7) Index of stock prices 8) Money-supply (M2) adjusted for inflation 9) Interest rate spread: the yield spread between 10-year Treasury notes and 3-month treasury bills 10) Index of consumer expectations
Chapter Nine 9
Recall from Chapter 4, the theoretical separation of real and nominal variables is called…
Economists call the separation of the determinants of real and nominal variables the classical dichotomy. A simplification of economic theory, it suggests that changes in the money supply do not influence real variables.
In recessions, both consumption and investment decline; however, investment (business equipment, structures, new housing and inventories) is even more susceptible to decline.
A recent recession began in late 2007
From the 4th quarter of 2007 to the 3rd quarter of 2008, the economy’s production of goods and services expanded by a paltry .7%-- well below the normal rate of growth. In the 4th quarter of 2008, real GDP fell at an annualized rate of 3.8 percent. The unemployment rate rose from 4.7 percent in November 2007 to 7.6 percent in January 2009. In early 2009, as this book was going to press, the end of the recession was not yet in sight, and many feared that the downturn would get significantly worse before getting better. As the book was going to press, the end of the recession was not in sight. Not surprisingly, the recession dominated the economic news of the time and the problem was high on the agenda of the newly elected president, Barack Obama.
Chapter Nine 5
Many economists in business and government have the role of forecasting short-run fluctuations in the economy. One way that economists arrive at forecasts is through looking at leading indicators. Each month, the Conference Board, a private economics Research announces the index of leading economic indicators, which consists of 10 data series.
Chapter Nine 2
Short-run fluctuations in output and employment are called the business cycle. In previous chapters, we developed theories to explain how the economy behaves in the long run; now we’ll seek to understand how the economy behaves in the short run.
Chapter Nine B.A. in Economics with Distinction, Duke University 1 M.P.A., Harvard University Kennedy School of Government M.B.A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management
Chapter Nine
7
The Crystal Ball of Economic Indicators
How has the crystal ball done lately? Here is what the Conference Board announced in 2007 press release: The leading index decreased sharply for the second consecutive month in November, and it has been down in four of the last six months. Most of the leading indicators contributed negatively to the index in November, led by large declines in stock prices, initial claims for unemployment insurance, index of consumer expectations, and the real money supply (M2)…The leading index fell 1.2 percent (a decline of 2.3 percent annual rate) from May to November, the largest six-month decrease in the index in six years. As predicted, the economy in 2008 and 2009 headed into a recession.
Chapter Nine 4
In recessions, unemployment rises. This negative (when one rises, the other falls) relationship between unemployment and GDP is called Okun’s Law, after Arthur Okun, the economist who first studied it. In short, it is defined as: Percentage Change in Real GDP = 3.5% - 2 the Change in the Unemployment Rate If the unemployment rate remains the same, real GDP grows by about 3.5 percent. For every percentage point the unemployment rate rises, real GDP growth typically falls by 2 percent. Hence, if the unemployment rate rises from 5 to 8 percent, then real GDP growth would be: Percentage Change in Real GDP = 3.5% - 2 (8% - 5%) = - 2.5% In this case, GDP would fall by 2.5%, indicating that the economy is in a recession.
®
CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
A PowerPointTutorial
To Accompany
MACROECONOMICS, 7th. Edition Biblioteka Baidu. Gregory Mankiw
Tutorial written by:
Mannig J. Simidian
Classical macroeconomic theory applies to the long run but not to the short run–WHY? The short run and long run differ in terms of the treatment of prices. In the long run, prices are flexible and can respond to changes in supply or demand. In the short run, many prices are “sticky” at some predetermined level. Because prices behave differently in the short run than in the long run, economic policies have different effects over different time horizons. Let’s see this in action.
Chapter Nine
3
GDP is the first place to start when analyzing the business cycle, since it is the largest gauge of economic conditions.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official determiner of whether the economy is suffering from a recession. A recession is usually defined by a period in which there are two consecutive declines in real GDP.
Chapter Nine
6
1) Average workweek of production workers in manufacturing 2) Average initial weekly claims for unemployment insurance 3) New orders for consumer goods and materials adjusted for inflation 4) New orders, nondefense capital goods 5) Vendor performance 6) New building permits issued 7) Index of stock prices 8) Money-supply (M2) adjusted for inflation 9) Interest rate spread: the yield spread between 10-year Treasury notes and 3-month treasury bills 10) Index of consumer expectations
Chapter Nine 9
Recall from Chapter 4, the theoretical separation of real and nominal variables is called…
Economists call the separation of the determinants of real and nominal variables the classical dichotomy. A simplification of economic theory, it suggests that changes in the money supply do not influence real variables.
In recessions, both consumption and investment decline; however, investment (business equipment, structures, new housing and inventories) is even more susceptible to decline.
A recent recession began in late 2007
From the 4th quarter of 2007 to the 3rd quarter of 2008, the economy’s production of goods and services expanded by a paltry .7%-- well below the normal rate of growth. In the 4th quarter of 2008, real GDP fell at an annualized rate of 3.8 percent. The unemployment rate rose from 4.7 percent in November 2007 to 7.6 percent in January 2009. In early 2009, as this book was going to press, the end of the recession was not yet in sight, and many feared that the downturn would get significantly worse before getting better. As the book was going to press, the end of the recession was not in sight. Not surprisingly, the recession dominated the economic news of the time and the problem was high on the agenda of the newly elected president, Barack Obama.
Chapter Nine 5
Many economists in business and government have the role of forecasting short-run fluctuations in the economy. One way that economists arrive at forecasts is through looking at leading indicators. Each month, the Conference Board, a private economics Research announces the index of leading economic indicators, which consists of 10 data series.
Chapter Nine 2
Short-run fluctuations in output and employment are called the business cycle. In previous chapters, we developed theories to explain how the economy behaves in the long run; now we’ll seek to understand how the economy behaves in the short run.
Chapter Nine B.A. in Economics with Distinction, Duke University 1 M.P.A., Harvard University Kennedy School of Government M.B.A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management
Chapter Nine
7
The Crystal Ball of Economic Indicators
How has the crystal ball done lately? Here is what the Conference Board announced in 2007 press release: The leading index decreased sharply for the second consecutive month in November, and it has been down in four of the last six months. Most of the leading indicators contributed negatively to the index in November, led by large declines in stock prices, initial claims for unemployment insurance, index of consumer expectations, and the real money supply (M2)…The leading index fell 1.2 percent (a decline of 2.3 percent annual rate) from May to November, the largest six-month decrease in the index in six years. As predicted, the economy in 2008 and 2009 headed into a recession.
Chapter Nine 4
In recessions, unemployment rises. This negative (when one rises, the other falls) relationship between unemployment and GDP is called Okun’s Law, after Arthur Okun, the economist who first studied it. In short, it is defined as: Percentage Change in Real GDP = 3.5% - 2 the Change in the Unemployment Rate If the unemployment rate remains the same, real GDP grows by about 3.5 percent. For every percentage point the unemployment rate rises, real GDP growth typically falls by 2 percent. Hence, if the unemployment rate rises from 5 to 8 percent, then real GDP growth would be: Percentage Change in Real GDP = 3.5% - 2 (8% - 5%) = - 2.5% In this case, GDP would fall by 2.5%, indicating that the economy is in a recession.
®
CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
A PowerPointTutorial
To Accompany
MACROECONOMICS, 7th. Edition Biblioteka Baidu. Gregory Mankiw
Tutorial written by:
Mannig J. Simidian