公司财务预测和价值评估案例一

公司名称：
（单位：万元)
1、从EBIT计算FCF
会计年度截止日：12/312004
EBIT205,414所得税税率15%
EBIT*(1-所得税税率)174,602折旧与摊销83,058营运资金的净变动(8,649)资本性投资(220,000)坏帐准备773
FCF29,784 2、从EBITDA计算FCF
会计年度截止日：12/312004 EBITDA288,472所得税税率15.0%
EBITDA*(1-所得税税率)245,201折旧与摊销*所得税税率12,459营运资金的净变动(8,649)资本性投资(220,000)坏帐准备773
FCF29,784 3、从税后利润计算FCF
会计年度截止日：12/312004利息费用11,047
利息收入1,379所得税税率15%
税后利润170,094 (利息费用－利息收入)*(1-所得税税率）8,218非经常性损益*（1-所得税率）(3,825)折旧与摊销83,058营运资金的净变动(8,649)资本性投资(220,000)坏帐准备773
FCF29,669
FCF*（包括少数股东权益）29,784
4、从现金流量表计算FCF
会计年度截止日：12/312004
经营活动产生的现金流量245299
投资活动产生的现金流量（不含短期投资的变动）-220000
(利息费用－利息收入)*(1-所得税税率）8218
非经常性损益*（1-所得税率）-3825
FCF29692
少数股东权益*对少数股东的派现比例92
FCF*（包括少数股东权益）29784
5、FCFE
会计年度截止日：12/312004
FCF29784
(利息费用－利息收入)*(1-所得税税率)-8218
长期贷款的增加/(减少)5000
循环贷款的增加(减少)10903
FCFE37469
6、ITS
会计年度截止日：12/312004
利息费用*所得税税率1657
7、AE
会计年度截止日：12/312004
税后利润170094期初净资产713116 Ke0.00%
AE170094
20052006200720082009
240,306275,836298,549318,025351,553 15%15%15%15%15%
204,260234,460253,767270,321298,820 92,80898,558103,808110,058115,058 (4,141)(3,817)(2,691)(2,468)(3,786) (170,000)(60,000)(150,000)(100,000)(100,000) 558549421417454
123,486269,751205,306278,329310,546
20052006200720082009 333,115374,394402,358428,084466,611
15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%
283,148318,235342,004363,871396,620 13,92114,78415,57116,50917,259 (4,141)(3,817)(2,691)(2,468)(3,786) (170,000)(60,000)(150,000)(100,000)(100,000) 558549421417454
123,486269,751205,306278,329310,546
20052006200720082009 11,05310,49710,48110,78111,081
1,0501,9403,2584,3885,886
15%15%15%15%15%
199,448230,855251,282268,530298,027 8,5027,2746,1405,4354,416 (3,825)(3,825)(3,825)(3,825)(3,825) 92,80898,558103,808110,058115,058 (4,141)(3,817)(2,691)(2,468)(3,786) (170,000)(60,000)(150,000)(100,000)(100,000) 558549421417454
123,352269,595205,136278,147310,345
123,486269,751205,306278,329310,546
20052006200720082009 288701326177352854376574409794
-170000-60000-150000-100000-100000 85027274614054354416
-3825-3825-3825-3825-3825 127204273451208995282008314210 108125136145161 127311273576209131282154314371
20052006200720082009 123486269751205306278329310546
-8502-7274-6140-5435-4416 50005000500050005000
-23977-14040000 96007253437204165277894311130
20052006200720082009
16581575157216171662
20052006200720082009 199448230855251282268530298027 79816389788799022910907421171301 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
199448230855251282268530298027
2010201120122013388,548
424,541
458,556
489,392
15%15%15%15%330,266360,860389,772415,984120,058124,808129,308133,808(4,055)(3,954)(3,781)(3,534)(100,000)
(90,000)
(90,000)
(90,000)
495480453416346,764
392,194
425,754
456,674
2010201120122013508,606549,350587,864623,20115.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%432,315466,947499,685529,72118,00918,72119,39620,071(4,055)(3,954)(3,781)(3,534)(100,000)
(90,000)
(90,000)
(90,000)
495480453416346,764
392,194
425,754
456,674
201020112012201311,381
11,681
11,981
12,281
Earnings
7,5889,31011,02312,893
15%15%15%15%
330,643362,424392,517420,044
3,2252,016815(520) (3,825)(3,825)(3,825)(3,825) 120,058124,808129,308133,808 (4,055)(3,954)(3,781)(3,534) (100,000)(90,000)(90,000)(90,000) 495480453416
346,541391,949425,488456,390
346,764392,194425,754456,674
2010201120122013 447186483808518552550792
-100000-90000-90000-90000 32252016815-520
-3825-3825-3825-3825 350410395823429367460272 179196212227 350589396019429579460499
2010201120122013 346764392194425754456674
-3225-2016-815520 5000500050005000
0000 348539395179429939462194
2010201120122013
1707175217971842
2010201120122013 330643362424392517420044 1260709135990214323861510890 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
330643362424392517420044。