看见的和看不见(巴师夏,英汉对照)

看见的与看不见的

巴师夏

In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen;we are fortunate if we foresee them.

在经济领域中，一次行动、一个习惯、一项制度和法律，不仅仅产生一个后果，而是一系列后果。这些后果中，首先是最直接的后果，与其原因同时出

现，是看见的后果；其他后果则晚一些时候出现，是看不见的，预见到它们是我们的福气。

There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.

糟糕的经济学家和优秀的经济学家之间只有一个区别：糟糕的经济学家只

考虑到可见的后果；优秀的经济学家既考虑到可见的后果，又考虑到必须预见到的后果。

Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil.

这个差别是十分巨大。这是因为，常常发生的事情是，直接后果是有利的，而随后出现的后果却是灾难性的。反之亦然。由此，糟糕的经济学家追求的是眼前的小善，随之而来的却是大恶；优秀的经济学家则涉险眼前的小恶，追求后来的大善。

The same thing, of course, is true of health and morals. Often, the sweeter the first fruit of a habit, the more bitter are its later fruits: for example, debauchery, sloth, prodigality. When a man is impressed by the effect that is seen and has not yet learned to discern the effects that are not seen,he indulges in deplorable habits, not only through natural inclination, but deliberately.

当然，同样的说法也适用于健康和道德。一种习惯，最初的结果越是美好，后来的结果越是痛苦，比如，放荡、怠

惰和挥霍。当一个人强烈地受到看见的后果影响，尚未学会洞悉看不见的后果

时，出于天性，甚或故意，他沉湎于可叹的习惯。

This explains man's necessarily painful evolution. Ignorance surrounds him at his cradle; therefore, he regulates his acts according to their first consequences, the only ones that, in his infancy, he can see. It is only

这说明，人类的进化必然是痛苦的。当他在摇篮之中时，无知包围着他，他依照环境的直接后果来调节自己的行为，这些是婴儿期的他能够看到后果。

after a long time that he learns to take account of the others.**2Two very different masters teach him this lesson: experience and foresight. Experience teaches efficaciously but brutally. It instructs us in all the effects of an act by making us feel them, and we cannot fail to learn eventually, from having been burned ourselves, that fire burns. I should prefer, in so far as possible, to replace this rude teacher with one more gentle: foresight. For that reason I shall investigate the consequences of several economic phenomena, contrasting those that are seen with those that are not seen.在很长时间之后，他学会了把其他后果也考虑进去。两个老师给他上这一课：经验和远见。经验有效且残酷地教训他。经验让我们感受行为的所有后果，从而教训我们。被火烧伤之后，我们不能不学会，火会烧伤我们。我希望，在可能的范围内，这个粗鲁的老师被一个温和的老师取代，而这个温和的老师正是远见。出于这个理由，我将研究若干经济

现象的后果，使那些看见的后果和看不见的后果形成对照。

1.The Broken Window

Have you ever been witness to the fury of that solid citizen, James Good fellow,*1when his incorrigible son has happened to break a pane of glass? If you have been present at this spectacle, certainly you must also have observed that the onlookers, even if there are as many as thirty of them, seem with one accord to offer the unfortunate owner the selfsame consolation: "It's an ill wind that blows nobody some good. Such accidents keep industry going. Everybody has to make a living. What would become of the glaziers if no one ever broke a window?"

1. 打破的窗户

有一次，好人詹姆斯那无药可救的儿子不小心打碎了一块窗格玻璃，他为此大发雷霆。你当时是否在场？如果你在场的话，那么，你肯定也看到了三十位旁观者异口同声地安慰不幸的主人说：“世上没有纯粹的坏事。这样的意外事故反而会带来工业繁荣。大家都要谋生嘛。如果没有被打破的玻璃窗，装玻璃窗的工人怎么维持生计呢？”

Now, this formula of condolence contains a whole theory that it is a good idea for us to expose, flagrante delicto, in this very simple case, since it is exactly the same as that which, unfortunately, underlies most of our economic institutions.

在这个例子中，这些客套话中包含着值得我们揭露的一整套理论。不幸的是，这种思想恰恰是我们大多数经济制度的基础。

Suppose that it will cost six francs to repair the damage. If you mean that the accident gives six francs' worth of encouragement to the aforesaid industry, I agree. I do not contest it in any way; your reasoning is correct. The glazier will come, do his job, receive six francs, congratulate himself, and bless in his heart the careless child. That is what is seen.

假设修好破损的窗户要花费六法郎。如果你是说这次事故使装玻璃的行业得到了价值六法郎的鼓励，那么，我完全同意。我不做任何争辩，你的推理完全正确。装玻璃的工人将会到来，做他的工作，收到六法郎，为自己庆贺，同时也打心眼儿里感谢那个粗心的孩

子。这是看见的后果。

But if, by way of deduction, you conclude, as happens only too often, that it is good to break windows, that it helps to circulate money, that it results in encouraging industry in general, I am obliged to cry out: That will

但是，照此推论，你会得出结论，正如时常发生的那样，窗户玻璃被打破成了一件好事，因为它有助于货币周转，鼓励一般工业的发展。啊！我要大声疾