人口老龄化本科毕业论文

本科毕业论文

（2009届）

题目浙江省人口老龄化趋势的预测与对策

学院理学院

专业数学与应用数学

班级

学号

学生姓名

指导教师

完成日期2014年5月11日

摘要

近年来，随着我国人口老龄化程度的不断加深，对经济和社会发展产生了很大影响。

本文选取从浙江省统计局获取的浙江省1979-2013年户籍人口数据，以及2006-2013年60岁以上人口数据，采取趋势预测法, 先运用灰色预测法建立GM(1,11)模型，并根据模型检验结果对模型的维数进行选择，再运用等维递补动态预测法对模型进行改进，对未来十年浙江省户籍人口总数和老年人口数做了预测。

根据分析结果得出结论：浙江省未来十年户籍人口将继续呈线性增长趋势，保持年均0.6195%的低速增长趋势，2018年浙江省户籍人口数量将达到4952.3万人, 2023年将达到5105.1万人，人口峰值还不会到来。未来十年老年人口数量也将保持线性增长趋势，年平均增长率为4.0308%，远远大于户籍总人口的年平均增长率。2018年老年人口将达到1047.9万，2023年将达到1276.6万，户籍老年人口峰值也不会在短期内到达。老年人口比例从2013年的17.9%不断攀升，到2018年达到21.16%，2023年将达到25%，老龄化形势相当严峻。

最后，根据研究结果，我们提出一些合理的建议来应对日益严峻的老龄化问题。

关键词：灰色预测；等维灰数递补动态模型；人口老龄化

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the population aging degree of deepening has a great influence on the economic and social development.

This article selects the data of domicilefrom population of zhejiang province in 1979-2013 from zhejiang municipal Burea of Statistics. First we use the method of grey forecasting model GM (1, 11).According to the model test results ,we select the dimensions of the model, Then develop the dynamic model with recursive compensation by grey number of identical dimension. Using this model,we predict the aging population in 2014-2023.

Finally, we come to the conclusion：according to the results of the analysis of zhejiang province in the next decade the household registration population will continue to be a linear growth trend, keep low annual average of 0.6195% growth trend, census register population will reach 49.523 million people in zhejiang province in 2018, will reach 51.051 million in 2023, the population peak also won't come. Over the next 10 years older population will keep linear growth trend, the average annual growth rate of 4.0308%, far outweigh the average annual growth rate of census register population. Aging population will reach 10.479 million in 2018,and will reach

12.766 million in 2023, the census register peak aging population will not arrive in the short term. Elderly population proportion rising from 17.9% in 2013, to 21.16% by 2018, will reach 25% in 2023, the aging population situation is quite serious.

Finally, according to the results, we put forward some reasonable Suggestions to cope with the increasingly serious aging problem.

Keywords:aging of population; grey prediction; dynamic model with recursive compensation by grey number of identical dimension

1.引言 (1)

1.1研究背景和意义 (1)

1.2文献综述 (3)

1.3 研究方法选取 (4)

2．灰色预测模型 (4)

2.1灰色系统模型 (4)

2.2灰色系统预测模型 (5)

2.3．GM(1,1)方法概述及其预测过程 (6)

2.4 GM(1,1)方法的模型检验 (8)

2.5不同维GM(1.1)模型的优选 (9)

2.6基于等维灰数递补动态预测模型的模型改进 (10)

3．浙江省人口老龄化预测 (12)

3.1数据整理和描述性分析 (12)

3.2 一些假设 (15)

3.3浙江省总人口变化趋势预测 (15)

3.4老年人口变化趋势预测 (17)

3.5结果整理与分析 (18)

4．结论 (19)

5.老龄化的影响及应对建议 (20)

5.1 影响 (20)

5.2 建议 (21)

6致谢 (24)

7.参考文献 (24)