2005-2016年中国玉米种植密度变化分析
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Abstract: 【Objective】Enhancing the maize plant population has undergone a constant evolution over the years, with the purpose of increasing the crop yield. However, the rational density range was determined by environmental condition, varieties and
收稿日期：2017-03-01；接受日期：2017-05-02 基金项目：国家重点研发计划（2016YFD0300101）、国家玉米产业技术体系项目（CARS-02-25）、中国农业科学院农业科技创新工程 联系方式：明博，E-mail：mingbo@caas.cn。通信作者李少昆，Tel：010-82108891；E-mail：lishaokun@caas.cn
中国农业科学 2017,50(11):1960-1972 Scientia Agricultura Sinica
doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2017.11.002
2005—2016 年中国玉米种植密度变化分析
明博，谢瑞芝，侯鹏，李璐璐，王克如，李少昆
（中国农业科学院作物科学研究所/农业部作物生理生态重点实验室，北京 100081）
11 期
明博等：2005—2016 年中国玉米种植密度变化分析
1961
management. The objective of this work was to reveal the approach of enhancing maize yield in the future by analyzing the change trend of planting density and its influencing factors in major producing regions. 【Method】 The research data have been obtained over the Project of Sending Agricultural Technology into Farmers’ Homes and National Maize Industrial Technology System from 2005 to 2016, including 23 provinces, more than 267 counties. From this investigation, 117 960 farmer production investigation data samples were obtained from the Northern China spring maize planting region (NM), the Northwest China maize planting region (NWM), the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain summer maize planting region (HPM), the Southwest China maize planting region(SM) and the Southern China sweet-waxy maize planting region (SWM). The number of harvested plants surveyed in nationwide investigation was used to analyze the planting density of maize main producing region and different ecological regions. The sample data were verified and complemented by averaging the values of 5 neighboring points. According to the regional environmental condition and planting patterns, the main maize producing regions have divided into 25 typical ecological regions. Boxplot analysis and Tukey’s honestly significant difference (HSD) test method were used to compare the planting density difference and its significance in different regions. Evolutionary trends of county-scale planting density in different ecological regions were subjected to the fitting linear model to analyze inter-annual trend of planting density and its significance.【Result】The results showed that there were significant differences of planting densities in different regions. At present (2014-2016), the planting density of the main producing region respectively were 6.77×104, 6.19×104, 5.91×104, 5.13×104 and 4.80×104 plants/hm2 in NWM, HPM, NM, SWM and SM. The planting density in NWM was significantly higher (P＜0.01) than other regions. Furthermore, planting density in SWM and SM was significantly lower (P＜0.01) than that in NWM, HPM and NM. From 2005 to 2016, the inter-annual variability of planting density showed a significant increase in NM. In NWM and SM, the planting density kept it steady between 2009 and 2016. The planting density in HPM increased obviously from 2005 to 2009 and remained stable after 2009. Planting density in SWM showed a significant decreasing trend.【Conclusion】Dense planting cultivation is commonly acknowledged by both the government and the academic researchers. However, the planting density evolution in the main production regions and different ecological regions is not uniform. Regional environmental condition is the key factor for determining the planting density, and reasonable cultivation techniques and appropriate density-resistant varieties are effective approaches to overcome environmental constraints and increase planting density. Consequently, further analysis of the promotion and restriction increase planting density factors, including environmental condition, varieties and management, will provide a theoretical foundation for establishing regional dense planting management mode.
摘要：【目的】合理增加种植密度是国内外玉米增产的重要途径，但合理的密植范围受资源条件、品种和种 植技术共同影响。研究旨在分析中国玉米种植密度的现状及其在不同区域、不同年份的变化，辨析玉米产量提 升途径，为明确未来技术发展方向和应对措施提供依据。【方法】研究整理了 2005—2016 年间全国农业科技入 户示范工程和国家玉米产业技术体系示范县测产调研数据，包括北方春玉米区、黄淮海夏玉米区、西北玉米区、 西南玉米区以及南方甜、糯玉米区共 5 大玉米产区，累计调研 23 个省（区）、267 个县（市），共 117 960 份调 查数据，以测产调研的收获株数分析中国玉米种植密度的变化情况。经过数据审核订正，各县市逐年农户数据 平均代表该县（市）逐年种植密度，缺失数据利用 5 点平滑插值法插值补缺。根据区域环境资源条件及种植模 式，将玉米主要产区细分为 25 个典型生态区域，以县（市）为单位分析玉米主要产区及其生态区域的种植密度 和变化规律。研究运用箱形分析法和 Tukey’s HSD 法比较各区域种植密度差异及其显著性；将各区域种植密度 与年代进行回归，分析种植密度年际变化趋势及其显著性。【结果】分析表明，目前（2014—2016 年），5 大玉 米产区和 25 个生态区域种植密度存在明显差异。种植密度由高到低依次为西北玉米区（6.77 万株/hm2）＞黄淮海夏 玉米区（6.19 万株/hm2）＞北方春玉米区（5.91 万株/hm2）＞南方甜糯玉米区（5.13 万株/hm2）＞西南玉米区（4.80 万株/hm2），西北玉米区种植密度极显著高于其他主产区，而南方甜糯玉米区与西南玉米区种植密度极显著低于 其他主产区。各主要产区种植密度变化情况存在明显差异。北方春玉米区种植密度 2005—2016 期间呈极显著增 长，12 年间上升了 1.5 万株/hm2；黄淮海夏玉米区 2005—2009 年种植密度明显上升，2009 年后种植密度稳定 在 6.2 万株/hm2 左右；西北玉米区自 2009 年以来始终是种植密度最高的产区，2013 年达到阶段性顶峰，近年 没有继续突破。西南玉米区 2009—2016 年种植密度维持在 4.80 万株/hm2 左右，与其他主产区种植密度差距在 不断加大；南方甜、糯玉米区的种植密度自 2009 年以来下降趋势明显。【结论】中国玉米种植密度在主产区之 间、主产区内不同生态区域之间的现状和发展趋势并不均衡，整体上呈现北高南低的态势，虽然区域环境条件 是决定种植密度的关键因素，但合理的耕作栽培技术和适宜的耐密品种是克服资源限制、提高种植密度的途径。 进一步辨析促进和限制区域种植密度发展的资源环境、品种与栽培技术因素，能够为各区域构建密植增产技术 模式提供理论支持。
关键词：玉米；主要产区；种植密度；变化趋势
Changes of Maiwenku.baidu.come Planting Density in China
MING Bo, XIE RuiZhi, HOU Peng, LI LuLu, WANG KeRu, LI ShaoKun
(Institute of Crop Science, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081)
收稿日期：2017-03-01；接受日期：2017-05-02 基金项目：国家重点研发计划（2016YFD0300101）、国家玉米产业技术体系项目（CARS-02-25）、中国农业科学院农业科技创新工程 联系方式：明博，E-mail：mingbo@caas.cn。通信作者李少昆，Tel：010-82108891；E-mail：lishaokun@caas.cn
中国农业科学 2017,50(11):1960-1972 Scientia Agricultura Sinica
doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2017.11.002
2005—2016 年中国玉米种植密度变化分析
明博，谢瑞芝，侯鹏，李璐璐，王克如，李少昆
（中国农业科学院作物科学研究所/农业部作物生理生态重点实验室，北京 100081）
11 期
明博等：2005—2016 年中国玉米种植密度变化分析
1961
management. The objective of this work was to reveal the approach of enhancing maize yield in the future by analyzing the change trend of planting density and its influencing factors in major producing regions. 【Method】 The research data have been obtained over the Project of Sending Agricultural Technology into Farmers’ Homes and National Maize Industrial Technology System from 2005 to 2016, including 23 provinces, more than 267 counties. From this investigation, 117 960 farmer production investigation data samples were obtained from the Northern China spring maize planting region (NM), the Northwest China maize planting region (NWM), the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain summer maize planting region (HPM), the Southwest China maize planting region(SM) and the Southern China sweet-waxy maize planting region (SWM). The number of harvested plants surveyed in nationwide investigation was used to analyze the planting density of maize main producing region and different ecological regions. The sample data were verified and complemented by averaging the values of 5 neighboring points. According to the regional environmental condition and planting patterns, the main maize producing regions have divided into 25 typical ecological regions. Boxplot analysis and Tukey’s honestly significant difference (HSD) test method were used to compare the planting density difference and its significance in different regions. Evolutionary trends of county-scale planting density in different ecological regions were subjected to the fitting linear model to analyze inter-annual trend of planting density and its significance.【Result】The results showed that there were significant differences of planting densities in different regions. At present (2014-2016), the planting density of the main producing region respectively were 6.77×104, 6.19×104, 5.91×104, 5.13×104 and 4.80×104 plants/hm2 in NWM, HPM, NM, SWM and SM. The planting density in NWM was significantly higher (P＜0.01) than other regions. Furthermore, planting density in SWM and SM was significantly lower (P＜0.01) than that in NWM, HPM and NM. From 2005 to 2016, the inter-annual variability of planting density showed a significant increase in NM. In NWM and SM, the planting density kept it steady between 2009 and 2016. The planting density in HPM increased obviously from 2005 to 2009 and remained stable after 2009. Planting density in SWM showed a significant decreasing trend.【Conclusion】Dense planting cultivation is commonly acknowledged by both the government and the academic researchers. However, the planting density evolution in the main production regions and different ecological regions is not uniform. Regional environmental condition is the key factor for determining the planting density, and reasonable cultivation techniques and appropriate density-resistant varieties are effective approaches to overcome environmental constraints and increase planting density. Consequently, further analysis of the promotion and restriction increase planting density factors, including environmental condition, varieties and management, will provide a theoretical foundation for establishing regional dense planting management mode.
摘要：【目的】合理增加种植密度是国内外玉米增产的重要途径，但合理的密植范围受资源条件、品种和种 植技术共同影响。研究旨在分析中国玉米种植密度的现状及其在不同区域、不同年份的变化，辨析玉米产量提 升途径，为明确未来技术发展方向和应对措施提供依据。【方法】研究整理了 2005—2016 年间全国农业科技入 户示范工程和国家玉米产业技术体系示范县测产调研数据，包括北方春玉米区、黄淮海夏玉米区、西北玉米区、 西南玉米区以及南方甜、糯玉米区共 5 大玉米产区，累计调研 23 个省（区）、267 个县（市），共 117 960 份调 查数据，以测产调研的收获株数分析中国玉米种植密度的变化情况。经过数据审核订正，各县市逐年农户数据 平均代表该县（市）逐年种植密度，缺失数据利用 5 点平滑插值法插值补缺。根据区域环境资源条件及种植模 式，将玉米主要产区细分为 25 个典型生态区域，以县（市）为单位分析玉米主要产区及其生态区域的种植密度 和变化规律。研究运用箱形分析法和 Tukey’s HSD 法比较各区域种植密度差异及其显著性；将各区域种植密度 与年代进行回归，分析种植密度年际变化趋势及其显著性。【结果】分析表明，目前（2014—2016 年），5 大玉 米产区和 25 个生态区域种植密度存在明显差异。种植密度由高到低依次为西北玉米区（6.77 万株/hm2）＞黄淮海夏 玉米区（6.19 万株/hm2）＞北方春玉米区（5.91 万株/hm2）＞南方甜糯玉米区（5.13 万株/hm2）＞西南玉米区（4.80 万株/hm2），西北玉米区种植密度极显著高于其他主产区，而南方甜糯玉米区与西南玉米区种植密度极显著低于 其他主产区。各主要产区种植密度变化情况存在明显差异。北方春玉米区种植密度 2005—2016 期间呈极显著增 长，12 年间上升了 1.5 万株/hm2；黄淮海夏玉米区 2005—2009 年种植密度明显上升，2009 年后种植密度稳定 在 6.2 万株/hm2 左右；西北玉米区自 2009 年以来始终是种植密度最高的产区，2013 年达到阶段性顶峰，近年 没有继续突破。西南玉米区 2009—2016 年种植密度维持在 4.80 万株/hm2 左右，与其他主产区种植密度差距在 不断加大；南方甜、糯玉米区的种植密度自 2009 年以来下降趋势明显。【结论】中国玉米种植密度在主产区之 间、主产区内不同生态区域之间的现状和发展趋势并不均衡，整体上呈现北高南低的态势，虽然区域环境条件 是决定种植密度的关键因素，但合理的耕作栽培技术和适宜的耐密品种是克服资源限制、提高种植密度的途径。 进一步辨析促进和限制区域种植密度发展的资源环境、品种与栽培技术因素，能够为各区域构建密植增产技术 模式提供理论支持。
关键词：玉米；主要产区；种植密度；变化趋势
Changes of Maiwenku.baidu.come Planting Density in China
MING Bo, XIE RuiZhi, HOU Peng, LI LuLu, WANG KeRu, LI ShaoKun
(Institute of Crop Science, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081)