黄金价格影响因素的理论与实证分析

黄金价格影响因素的理论与实证分析

摘要

“布雷顿森林体系”崩溃之后，美元与黄金脱钩，各国政府纷纷放松对黄金的管制，金价逐渐市场化。这使得影响黄金价格的因素变得更加复杂，金价的波动也更加剧烈。近年来，随着金价一路走高，影响其价格走势的因素成为人们热议的话题。国内外相关研究成果表明，影响黄金价格的主要因素有：黄金的供需情况、宏观经济因素（如：原油价格、道琼斯工业指数、美元走势、通货膨胀等）和其他相关因素（如：地缘政治）。本文先从理论方面分析了各影响因素的作用途径和作用大小；然后利用计量经济学的方法实证分析了宏观经济因素（原油价格、道琼斯工业指数、美元走势和通货膨胀）对现货黄金价格的影响。结果显示美元指数和道琼斯工业指数对金价有正向拉动作用，原油价格和美国CPI对金价有反向抑制作用；最后对全文进行总结，并提出了几点关于黄金投资的建议。

关键词：黄金价格；影响因素；实证分析

The theoretical and empirical study analysis of the

effects of the gold price

Abstract

After the collapse of "Bretton Woods System", the relationship between dollar and gold was decoupling. Governments have relaxed controls on gold and gold prices have been deregulated. This makes the factors that influence the price of gold has become more complex, the fluctuation of gold price is also more intense. In recent years, with the price of gold increasing higher and higher, the factors affecting the price movements become a hot topic. The domestic and foreign relevant research results indicate that the main factors that affect the gold price are: gold supply and demand situation, the macroeconomic factors (such as oil prices, the Dow Jones industrial average, the trends of dollar, inflation, etc) and other related factors (such as geopolitical). This paper analyzes the effects and significance of each affecting factor from theoretical aspects at first. Then uses econometric methods to empirical analyze the influence of macroeconomic factors (oil prices, the Dow Jones industrial average, the trends of dollar, inflation) on the spot gold price . Results showed that the dollar index and the Dow Jones industrial average index have a positive role in boosting of gold price, crude oil prices and the U.S. CPI can inhibit gold price. Finally, to summarize the whole essay, puts forward some recommendations on gold investment. Keyword:The price of gold; Factors; Analysis

目录

摘要 ................................................................................................................................................... I Abstract .............................................................................................................................................II 第一章引言 . (1)

1.1研究背景 (1)

1.2研究意义 (1)

1.3文献综述 (1)

1.4研究方法 (2)

1.5 基本框架 (2)

第二章黄金的主要用途及其投资优势 (4)

2.1黄金的主要用途 (4)

2.1.1工业与高新技术产业 (4)

2.1.2储备资产 (4)

2.1.3珠宝装饰行业 (5)

2.2黄金的投资优势 (5)

第三章黄金价格的影响因素 (7)

3.1供求关系对黄金价格的影响 (7)

3.1.1黄金的供给 (7)

3.1.2黄金的需求 (8)

3.2宏观经济因素对黄金价格的影响 (10)

3.2.1原油价格 (10)

3.2.2道琼斯工业指数 (12)

3.2.3美元指数 (13)

3.2.4通货膨胀 (15)

3.3其他因素对黄金价格的影响 (17)

第四章宏观经济因素对黄金价格影响的实证研究 (18)

4.1数据收集 (18)

4.2变量相关关系分析 (19)

4.3平稳性检验 (20)

4.4协整检验 (21)

4.4.1V AR模型 (21)

4.4.2 Johansen协整检验 (22)

4.5格兰杰因果检验 (23)

4.6建立多元回归模型 (23)

第五章结论和展望 (26)

5.1结论 (26)

5.2投资政策建议 (26)

5.3展望 (27)

参考文献 (28)

致谢 (29)