劳动力转移的影响因素实证分析定稿

实证项目的计量经济研究

——课程论文分析

课程名称农村劳动力转移的影响因素实证分析学院经济管理学院

专业班级

组员

目录

摘要----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3关键词-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3

一、引言----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4

二、文献综述----------------------------------------------------------------------------------5

三、数据及研究方法-------------------------------------------------------------------------6

（一）、数据来源----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6 （二）、模型建立----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------7

四、实证检验-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------8

（一）、单位根检验--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 （二）、协整检验-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 （三）、回归模型----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------10 （四）、多重共线性-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------10 （五）、逐步回归分析----------------------------------------------------------------------------------11 （六）、异方差检验-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------13 （七）、自相关检验-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------14 （八）、最终模型估计结果----------------------------------------------------------------------------15

五、结论和政策建议---------------------------------------------------------------------------15

六、不足与展望--------------------------------------------------------------------------------16

七、参考文献------------------------------------------------------------------------------------16

八、附录：原始数据---------------------------------------------------18

农村劳动力转移的影响因素的实证分析

摘要：本文对影响农村劳动力转移的三个因素：城乡收入差距、城镇失业率、城乡消费支出进行实证研究。研究结果表明：城乡收入差距是造成农村劳动力转移的主要诱因，城乡收入差距扩大造成了大量的农村劳动力向城镇转移，而城镇失业率则是潜在的就业风险成本因素，只有消除这些潜在的就业风险成本因素农村劳动力转移才具有持久性。以此提出相关政策建议来促进社会的和谐发展。

关键词：农村劳动力转移；城乡收入差距；城镇失业率；城乡消费支出；实证分析

Abstract:in this paper, three factors of rural labor transfer: the income gap between urban and rural areas, the unemployment rate in cities and towns, urban and rural consumption expenditure of empirical research. The results show that: the income gap between urban and rural areas is the main cause of the transfer of rural labor force in urban and rural income gap, causing a large number of rural labor transfer to cities and towns, the unemployment rate is the employment cost of risk potential factors, only the elimination of rural labor force of these potential employment cost of risk factors transfer has persistence. To put forward relevant policy recommendations to promote the harmonious development of society.