随着中国经济的飞速发展和经济实力的日益增强
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随着中国经济的飞速发展和经济实力的日益增强,人民币在国际市场上面临严峻的升值压力。人民币升值, 并对我国进出口贸易的发展产生深远的影响。"完善人民币汇率形成机制,保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定;在有效防范风险的前提下,有选择、分步骤放宽对跨境资本交易的限制,逐步实现人民币资本项目可兑换。" 正是人民币汇率制度改革的既定目标。本文在了解人民币升值的背景、原因及过程的基础上,重点从正反两方面分析人民币升值对我国对外贸易的影响,进而探寻针对人民币升值的应对策略及措施,以促进我国对外贸易健康、有序地发展。
With the rapid development of Chinese economy and increasing reinforcement of its economic strength,RMB faces severe pressure of appreciation in the international market.The appreciation of RMB will profoundly affect the development of input and output trade of China.“The fixed objects of the reform of RMB exchange rate system are as follows:“perfect the developing mechanism of RMB exchange rate,keep the RMB exchange rate system stable based on the rational and balanced level;based on the premise of keeping away risks effectly,decrease the restrict of cross-border capital trade selectly and steply,realize the exchange of RMB capital program step by step.This article is on the base of knowing the background of appreciation of RMB ,reason and process,and focuses on the analysis the impact of Chinese foreign trade caused by appreciation of RMB in terms of positive and negative aspects ,so as to look for strategies and measures on appreciation of RMB and stimulates healthy and orderly development of foreign trade .
1.中国经济在扩大内需投资和对外贸易的带动下,人民币的国际影响力不断增强,中国经济保持稳定增长,支持本国的货币稳定升值。1. Chinese economy drives by increasing domestic demand investment and foreign trade,and the international influence of RMB is continually reinforced,so Chinese economy can increase stablely and approve of stable appreciation
对美国等国较大的贸易顺差,全球第一大的外汇储备,庞大的外汇储备长期影响着人民币名义和实际有效汇率,升值压力始终很大。China faces a lots of pressures which are as follows: China owns trade surplus against USA and other countries,China owns the world’s biggest foreign reserve,the big foreign reserve affects the nominal of RMB over a long period of time and its actual exchange rate.
另外,由于金融危机,国家4万亿投资,M2 的增长率已经远超中国同时期GDP的增长率,物价面临着上涨的压力。从维护国内物价稳定的角度看,人民币面临着升值的压力。In addition,because of financial crisis and the China’s 4 trillion investment,the increasing rate of M2 has already overtaken GDP of China at the same period of time greatly,and the price faces the pressure of rise.From the prospect of reserving stability of domestic price,RMB faces the pressure of appreciation.
另外,由于中国劳动成本的低廉,越来越多的国外生产力迁入中国,使得外国就业压力增大,欧美发达国家对我国施加压力,要求人民币升值。And because of the low cost of Chinese labor,more and more foreign productivity comes to China,so the pressure of employment abroad gets bigger.And developed countried in Europe and America exert an pressure on China,they want the appreciation of RMB。
人民币升值除了考虑贸易伙伴国的利益外,最主要目标是推进汇率改革,使人民币成为自由兑换货币,为人民币最终成为“世界储备货币”奠定良好的机制基础。Besides the consideration of the interest of trade partners,the main object of appreciation of RMB is to boost the reform of exchange rate,and make it free exchange money,which eventually can be the base of making RMB one of the world reserve currencies。
实际上,自2005年7月以来的汇率改革,人民币的实际有效汇率都是上升的,特别是2007年的全球金融危机爆发以来,实际有效汇率已经上升10.31%,这说明人民币的确在升值,只不过是按照自己的计划来升值。Actually,since the reform of exchange rate in July,2005,the actual valid exchange rate of RMB was uplifted,but the appreciation was followed its own plan。
而金融危机爆发以来,跟随美元的策略只是特别环境下的特别举措,相信随着各国经济的好转,人民币汇率将会正常化。As the burst of financial crisis,following the strategy of US dollar is just special act under special