(经济学人)

（经济学人）亚洲消费状况（中英文）
Consumer spending in Asia
亚洲消费状况
Shopaholics wanted
购物狂时代该来了？
Jun 25th 2009 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
Can Asians replace Americans as a driver of global growth?
亚洲人能够代替美国人做全球经济的发动机吗？
ASIA'S emerging economies are bouncing back much more strongly than any others. While America's industrial production continued to slide in May, output in emerging Asia has regained its precrisis level (see chart 1). This is largely due to China; but although production in the region's smaller economies is still well down on a year ago, it is rebounding in those countries too. Taiwan's industrial output rose by an annualised 80% in the three months to May compared with the previous three months. JPMorgan estimates that emerging Asia's GDP has grown by an annualised 7% in the second quarter.
时下亚洲新兴经济体们的恢复势头比其他任何国家都要迅猛。

在美国工业生产继续下
滑的5 月，亚洲新兴国家的产出已经回到了它们危机前的水平(见表一)。

这很大程度上要归功于中国，此外尽管该地区较小经济体的生产比去年仍有所下降，但最近这些
国家也在渐渐恢复。

台湾截至5 月的工业产出年度化增长较前三个月上升了80%。

摩根大通预计二季度亚洲新兴经济体年度化增长率将达到7%。

Asia's ability to decouple from America reflects the fact that the region's downturn was caused only partly by the slump in American activity. In most Asian economies falling domestic demand was more important than the drop in net exports in explaining the collapse in GDP growth. The surge in food and energy prices in the first half of2008 squeezed profits and spending power. Tighter monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation then further chokeddomestic demand.
亚洲与美国脱钩的能力说明该地区经济下滑只是部分由于美国经济活动的影响。

大
多数亚洲经济体内需下降要比净出口下降对经济影响更大，这就解释了GDP 增长率
暴跌的原因。

2008 年上半年食品和能源价格的暴涨让利润和消费能力双双缩减。

从紧的货币政策旨在遏制通胀却进一步使得内需受到抑制。

The recent recovery in industrial production reflects the end of destocking by manufacturers as well as the large fiscal stimulus by most governments. But the boost from both of these factors will fade. Meanwhile, export markets in developed economies are likely to remain weak. So the recovery in Asian economies will stumble unless domestic spending, notably consumption, perks up.
近期工业生产的回复显示制造商产品积压的状况正在结束，同时多国政府大规模经
济刺激计划也已起效。

但是这些原因造成的增长终会消失，同时面向发达经济体的
出口市场看上去依旧疲软。

因此除非让内需，尤其是让消费振作起来，否则亚洲经
济体的回复之路依旧前途坎坷。

Consumers' appetite to spend varies hugely across the region. In China, India and Indonesia spending has increased by annual rates of more than 5% during the global downturn. China's retail sales have soared
by 15% over the past year. This overstates the true growth rate because it includes government purchases, but official household surveys suggest that real spending is growing at a still-impressive rate of 9%. In the year to May, salesof household electronics were up by 12%, clothing by 22% and cars by a stunning 47%.
消费者消费的胃口在这一地区有着巨大的差异性。

中国、印度和印尼在全球经济下滑
期间消费额年度化增长率超过了5%。

中国的零售销售额去年暴增了15%,但这个数
字是被夸大的,因为它包括了政府采购的花销,但是官方的家庭调查显示真实的消费增
长率依然达到了令人印象深刻的9%。

今年截至五月，家用电器销售增长12%，服装
销售增长22%而汽车销售增长则达到了惊人的47%。

Elsewhere in the region, spending has stumbled, squeezed by higher unemployment and lower wages. In Hong Kong, Singapore and South
Korea real consumer spending was 4,5% lower in the first quarter than
a year earlier, a much bigger drop than in America. But Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC, sees tentative signs that spending
is picking up. Taiwan's retail sales rose in May for the third consecutive month. Department-store sales in South Korea rose by 5% in the year
to May.
该地区其它地方由于受增高的失业率和工资水平下降的影响，消费增长步履蹒跚。

香港、新加坡和韩国一季度真实消费较去年下降了4-5%，这比美国的情况还要糟
糕。

但是汇丰银行的经济学家弗雷德里希-纽曼认为，当下消费止跌上升的趋势已
初露端倪。

台湾的零售业销售额到五月为止已连续3 月上升。

韩国百货商场销售额
到五月为止也上升了5%。

It is often argued that emerging Asian economies have large current-
account surpluses-and are thus not pulling their fair weight in the
world-because consumers like to save rather than spend. Yet this does not really fit the facts.
During the past five years consumer spending in emerging Asia has grown
by an annual average of 6.5%, much faster than in any other part of the world. It is true that consumption has fallen as a share of GDP, but that is because investment and exports have grown even faster, not because spending has been weak. Relative to American consumer spending, Asian consumption has soared (see chart 2).
人们通常认为新兴亚洲经济体有着大量的国际收支经常项目顺差，而这却并不能使它
们在世界贸易中占有应有的比重，因为亚洲的消费者倾向储蓄多过消费。

但这却并不
真正符合事实，在过去五年中崛起的亚洲国家消费年均增长率达到了6.5%，这要比
世界上任何其他地区都要快。

消费占GDP 比重确实下降了，但这并不表明消费减弱
，而是因为投资和出口增长的更快。

与美国消费相比，亚洲消费是暴增了。

In most Asian economies, private consumption is 50-60% of GDP, which is not out of line with rates in countries at similar levels
of income elsewhere. China, however, is an exception. Private consumption there fell from 46% of GDP in 2000 to only 35% last yearhalf that in America. In dollar terms, spending is only onesixth of that in America. (Singapore's consumption is also low, at just under 40% of GDP.)
在大多数亚洲经济体中，个人消费占GDP 的50-60%，这个数字并不比收入水平相
同的其他任何地方低。

然而中国是个例外。

个人消费占GDP 从2000 年的46%下降
到了去年的35%，这个数字才是美国的一半。

以美元结算的话，消费只有美国的六
分之一。

(新加坡的消费也很低，不足GDP 的40%)
This explains why China's government has recently taken bolder action
than others to boost consumption. Over the past six months the gove-rnment in Beijing has introduced a host of incentives to encourage house-
holds to opentheir wallets. Rural residents get subsidies for buying
vehicles and other goods such as televisions, refrigerators,computers
and mobile phones; urban residents get a subsidy if they trade in cars
and home appliances for newgoods; tax rates on lowemission cars have
also been cut. There is huge potential for higher consumption in the
cou-ntryside as incomes rise: only 30% of rural households have a refrigerator , for example, compared withvirtually all urban households.
这也解释了中国政府为何最近比任何国家都大力促进消费。

在过去6 个月中北京政府颁布一揽子激励政策来鼓励家庭打开他们的钱包。

农村居民得到了购买车辆和电视、冰箱、电脑以及手机等商品的政策倾斜；城市居民则得到了购买汽车和家电换新方面的政策倾斜；小排量汽车的税率也被下调。

随着农村收入增加，消费上升有着巨大潜力：与城市家庭近乎每家一台相比，只有30%的农村家庭拥有电冰箱。

The government has also introduced several measures this year to improve the social safety net, such as spending more on health care, pensions and payments to low-income households. On June 19th it ordered all stateowned firms that had listed on the stockmarket since 2005 to transfer 10% of their shares to the National Social Security Fund to shore up its assets. The shortterm impact is likely to be modest but if such measures ease households'worries about future pensions and health care, it could in the long term encourage them to save less and spend More.
政府也在今年颁布了几项举措改善社保网络，比如对医疗卫生领域加大投入、向低收入家庭发放养老金和收入补助。

6 月19 日还命令2005 年以来的国有上市公司向国家社保基金转让10%的股份，以稳固后者资产。

虽然看起来短期效果有限，但是如果这一系列举措能够缓解家庭对未来养老金和医疗问题的担忧，长远的看还是能鼓励人们存得更少花得更多的。

Another way to boost consumption is to make it easier to borrow. In most Asian economies household debt is less than 50% of GDP, compared with around 100% in many developed economies; in China and India it
is less than15%. South Korea is the big exception: households have
as much debt relative to their income as Americans and their saving rate has fallen over the past decade from 18% of disposable income
to only 4%. In many other Asian economies financing for consumer durables is virtually nonexistent. Promisingly, the Chinese bank regulator announced draft rules in May to allow domestic and foreign institutions to set up consumer-finance firms to offer personal loans for consumer
-goods purchases.
另一个刺激消费的方法是让借贷更容易。

多数亚洲国家家庭借贷不足GDP 的50%，与此对比发达经济体这个数字在100%左右；在中国和印度则更是少于15%。

韩国却是个特例：与美国一样，家庭举债和他们收入一样多，储蓄率也已经在过
去十年中从可支配收入的18%下降到了只有4%。

在其他亚洲经济体中面向耐用
消费品的金融服务事实上是不存在的。

幸运的是，中国银监机构已经在5 月宣布
了一些规则草案，允许中外机构建立消费金融公司为消费者购买商品提供个人贷
款。

These measures are a modest step in the right direction. But a bigger
test of Asian governments' resolve to shift the balance of growth from exports towards domestic spending is whether they will allow their exchange rates to rise.A revaluation would lift consumers' real purchasing power and give firms reason to shift resources towards producing for the domestic market. But so far, policymakers have been reluctant to let currencies rise too fast.
这些措施只不过是正确方向上有限的一小步。

但亚洲各国政府想要将增长平衡由出
口向内需转变的更大实验能否成功将取决于它们是否允许本国货币汇率上升。

这种
再估价将会提升消费者的实际消费能力，并让企业有理由转移资源为国内市场生产
商品。

但迄今为止，政策制定者们都不情愿让货币升值太快。

Asian spending is already an important engine of global growth. Even before the crisis, emerging Asia's consumer spending contributed slightly more (in absolute dollar terms) to the growth in global demand than did America's.But it could be even bigger if Asians enjoyed the
full fruits of their hard labour, rather than subsidising Western
consumers through undervalued currencies. It is time for an even
greater shift in spending power from the West to the East.
亚洲的消费已经是世界经济增长的重要引擎。

甚至在危机之前，亚洲新兴经济
体的消费者对全球经济增长的贡献也要比美国消费者稍大一点点(在完全以美
元作为结算单位的前提下)。

而如果亚洲人能够充分享用他们辛勤劳动的果实，
而不是通过低估本国货币补贴西方消费者的话，这种作用将会更明显。

现在是
将消费能力从西向东做更大转移的时候了。

(经济学人)关于G20峰会的文章及其翻译
The G20 outcome is better than nothing, but can the IMF save the world? WHEN an infamous summit of world powers in London ended in 1933, such was the mood of protectionist acrimony that many argued it would have been better if the meeting had not been held at all. At times in the run up to the G20 gathering of world leaders in London on Thursday April 2nd it looked as if history might be repeated. But the leaders have shown some grit, and some ingenuity in finding money when little is about. Many holes can be picked in their pledges to reflate the world economy and reregulate global finance. But, at the very least, it was better that they met than not. The centerpiece of the leaders’ plan is, conveniently, the IMF, which they believe can add an extra $1 trillion in funding to the world economy without the risk of ballooning national budgets, or obstruction from national politicians. That financial conjuring trick gets the G20 out of a bind. Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, has made much of $5 trillion in public spending that governments around the world have promised to help shunt their economies out of recession in 200910. But big spenders such as America and Britain are up against their limits and fiscal hawks such as Germany are stubbornly convinced they have done enough.
That leaves the IMF as pumpprimer of last resort, although not all of the funding promises made on Thursday were new. Japan and the European Union had already agreed to put $100 billion each into the IMF's kitty. Rich countries such as America will provide a $500 billion credit line, known as New Arrangements to Borrow. This was trailed several weeks ago. Significantly, the IMF will print $250 billion of its own currency, known as special drawing rights, allocating sums to its members according to their quotas. It is not clear whether this can be redirected from rich countries
to poor ones.
This flood of extra resources, plus an enhanced oversight role the G20 has given to the fund, will be a huge turnaround for an institution whose relevance had slumped in the boom years. Now the new money must be directed to developing countries, especially in eastern Europe. Many such countries have been loth to tap the fund because of the stigma involved.
A pledge by the G20 to reform the fund's governance soon may convince them that the leopard has changed its spots. This week Mexico secured a $47 billion credit line with the fund, with no strings attached, which may set a trend. Eswar Prasad of the Brookings Institution believes the commitment to reform is credible. His evidence is that China has agreed
to chip in $40 billion, prior to any changes to its voting power in the IMF (it has the same heft as Belgium). Others, however, remain sceptical. “This is still supply chasing demand,” says Arvind Subramanian of the Centre for Global Development.
The importance of offering new sources of funds to the developing world should not be underestimated, however. By some estimates poor countries have $1.4 trillion of debts to roll over this year alone and Western creditors
are hoarding their cash. These countries have far less fiscal room for manoeuvre than rich economies. They are also areas of the world where growth could rebound quite quickly, because households are not weighed down by the crushing debts typical in America and Europe. In a further fillip to many of them, the G20 agreed to ensure $250 billion in trade finance to help reboot global trade—though it was not clear how much of this was
new money.
As for efforts to drag the developed world out of the mire, the G20 went perhaps further than had been expected, though undoubtedly not far enough. It emphasised the problem of scrubbing toxic assets off banks’balancesheets, but gave little guidance on how banks should be forced to mark down their assets to saleable prices. (Undermining that effort, on Thursday American accounting standard-setters watered down a
mark-to-market provision that would have forced banks to value their assets at market prices. The shortsighted reprieve led to a huge rally in the shares
of stricken banks such as Citigroup.It also, in a nod to strongly held German and French sentiments, called for regulation of hedge funds and
other parts of the shadow banking system, a crack down on tax havens
and banking secrecy, and more oversight of creditrating agencies. There was little to suggest that one of the main causes of the crisis, incentives
for banks to grow too big to fail, was being tackled.Financial markets rallied after the G20 news, though this was as much because of sprigs of good economic news emerging as the harmony that was displayed. This was despite disappointment that the European Central Bank had cut its main interest rate on Thursday, by just a quarter of a percentage point, to
1.25%. American unemployment figures on Friday, which could be shocking, may puncture some of that optimism, and should temper any temptation among G20 leaders to claim success. Their efforts to reflate
the world economy may have avoided a 1930s style depression so far.
But rising joblessness and years of pain may lie ahead as banks, businesses and households in the West continue to struggle to pay
down their debts.
当1933年在伦敦举行的一个臭名昭著的世界大国首脑会议结束时，贸易保护主义者
非常尖锐，他们之中很多人认为该会议不举行可能会更好。

在4月2日星期四在伦敦
举行的、聚集了世界众多领导人的G20峰会召开之前，有时候看上去这一切仿佛是
历史在重演。

但是，在到处都面临资金短缺之际，这些首脑们在寻求资金方面都展
示出了一些勇气和聪明才智。

虽然在他们对世界经济复苏和重新规范全球金融的承
诺中仍能发现不少漏洞，但是，至少这回，会议召开比不召开要好。

这些首脑们的计划的核心，很简单，是IMF——他们认为它可以在不增加政府预算
或者绕开各国政治家的妨碍的情况下，再给世界经济注入1万亿美元资金。

这个金
融戏法帮助G20脱离了困境。

英国首相戈登·布朗（Gordon Brown）称，世界
各国政府都已允诺在2009-2010年间的公共开支将达5万亿美元以帮助走出衰退。

但是，挥金如土的美国和英国反对其限制，而财政鹰派德国则顽固地认为他们做得
已经够多了。

尽管G20于周四做出的融资承诺并无新意，但是，IMF俨然成为了全球经济信心和
资本的加注器。

日本和欧盟已同意分别向IMF注资1000亿美元。

美国等富国将根
据《新借款协议》向IMF提供5000亿美元的信贷额。

这一方案早在几周前就已有
迹可循。

最值得关注的是，IMF将启动特别提款权（SDR）制度，印制价值2500
亿美元的国际结算货币，按会员国缴纳的份额分配给各参加国。

SDR的启动是否
能使资金从富国转向穷国，目前尚未可知。

额外资源的洪水般注入，加之G20已经强调对资金加强监管，这将在景气之年，
给不景气的组织机构带来巨大的好转。

目前，这些新货币一定会进入发展中国家，
特别是东欧国家。

因为先前不好的名声，其中许多国家已经在谨慎使用资金。

G20发誓要尽快改善基金管理，使其确信“美洲狮”已经改变了做法。

本周，墨西哥已经确定470亿美元的资金信用额度，无任何附加条件，它可以形
成一种趋势。

美国布鲁金斯学会的Eswar Prasad认为此项改革承诺是可信的，
其依据是中国已经同意，在国际货币基金组织内投标权改变之前注入400亿美元
（与比利时有同等分量）。

然而，其它人仍然持怀疑态度。

全球发展中心的Arvind
Subramanian说：“这仍然是供应链的追逐需求。

然而，不要低估给发展中国家提供新资金来源的重要性。

据估算，贫困国家单是今
年就有1.4万亿美元的债务要延期，而另一边厢，西方债权人却正在囤积现金。

这
些落后国家远不如发达国家那样有充足的财政回旋余地，但他们可能也是世界上
经济能快速复苏的地区，因为他们的家庭不会像美国欧洲的家庭那样受到沉重债务
的拖累。

为了进一步提振他们当中大部分的经济，G20与会国同意，要确保在贸易
金融中投入2500亿美元以帮助振兴全球贸易，尽管目前尚不清楚，这当中会有多少
是新的资金。

尽管肯定力度不足，但在将发达国家拖出泥潭的努力方面，G20峰会可能依然超出
人们的期望。

此次会议强调了清洗银行资产负债表中有毒资产的问题，但是在银行
如何削减资产至适于出售的价格上，却没有给出解决方案。

（周四，美国会计标准
降低了市价条款，银行不得不重新对资产以市场价估值。

这一短期行为使得遭难的
银行——如花旗银行——的市场表现得以迅速回升，这一措施抵消了上述的努力）
另外，由于对德国和法国意见点头赞同，会议呼吁加强针对套利基金和其他银行系
统阴暗面的管制，严查避税场所，对银行机密行为进行制裁，并对客户信贷机构实
施严格监管。

而对此次危机重要的原因之一，即银行膨胀过快从而陷落的诱因，此
次会议几乎没有进行探讨。

在G20峰会后，金融市场开始复苏，尽管这只是因为随着和谐团结声音的传出，带
来了一点利好消息而已。

欧洲央行降息的消息尽管令人沮丧，但它还是在周四将主
要利率调低了0.25%个百分点，至1.25%。

美国周五公布的失业数据预计会令人
震惊，可能也会打击这种乐观情绪，它可能会刺激G20领导人的情绪，以尽快宣布
复兴。

现在看来，他们想重新刺激世界经济的努力可能会避免1930年代的大萧条。

但因着西方的银行、商业机构和房产人依然有难以按时还债的困扰，不断上升的失
业率和多年来的积弊可能难以攻克。

金融市场在20国峰会的新闻后开始重振旗鼓，同时也是因为一系列经济好消息的出
台给市场带来了和谐之声，仅管有些失望的是欧洲中央银行周四将主要利率下降了
0.25个百分点，降至1.25%。

周五将公布的美国失业率可能会让人吃惊而打击一
部分乐观主义者，它将鼓励20国峰会领导尽力去追求成功。

他们刺激世界经济的努
力到目前为止避免了上世纪三十年代经济大萧条的重演，但是西方国家上升的失业
率和生活的艰难仍将摆在面前，因为西方国家的银行、公司和家庭需要继续努力去
偿还债务。

经常要用到的-->>英语职业
1.It is important to choose our profession carefully.认真选择地选
择自己的职业是很重要的
2.It is not easy to get a good job找到一份好的工作并不容易
3.I think it is good fortune to have a regular job我认为有一份固定
的工作是一笔很好的财富
4.Those who want to have a good job must be good with
people , and speak at least one Foreign language fluently 想要找到好工作，必须善于与人沟通，并至少熟练掌握一门外语
5.All legitimate trades are equally honorable 所有合法的工作都值得人尊
重。

6.No song, no supper. 不劳无获
7.I thought about what I did best before applying for a job. 在申请那
个职位之前我要考虑如何才能做到最好
8.To find the job right for me ,I took a vocational test .为了找到一
份适合我的工作，我进行了职业测试
9.I want to have a respectable occupation in the future我想在将来
能有份受人尊敬的职业
10.I want to be a perfect teacher like my science teacher我想成为我的
理科老师那样的好老师
11.I want to have a job such as a government employee我想有份政府职员的
工作
12.I want to join a company that can give me a flexible schedule我想加
入一家能够有固定休息时间的公司
13.I want to have a job with good pay.我想有份待遇丰厚的工作。

14.I want to be a thrifty homemaker without a job没有工作我就得勤俭持家
15.I wonder what job promise good fortune.我想找一份能够赚大钱的工作
16.I want to get into a leading company我进入一家顶级的公司工作
1.I think I am the right person for the job 我觉得我是适合这份工作的合适人
选
2.I am cut out for the work我适合这份工作
3.I have every quality needed for the job我具备这份工作所需的所有品质
4.I have not decided yet what job to get 我还没决定想要找什么工作
5.I didn’t know how difficult it would be to choose my profession我
不知道选择一份工作有多难
Singer歌手maid,housekeeper女管家，主妇 nurse 护士 architect 建筑
师 prosecutor 检察官
Guard 保安archaeologist考古学家 scientist 科学家 miner矿工 professor教授
Proofreader校对员 civil servant公务
员 ward officer 省政府职员
Congressman新闻节目主持人 president总统，校长 librarian图书管理员 priest 牧师
Hairdresser美发师 judicial司法公正人 tutor 家庭教师 homemaker保姆
Director指导员，导演 prosecuting attorney检察官 bookkeeper 图书管理员 acrobat杂技演员
Government employee公务员publicity agent宣传员，广告员 operator编程员 bartender酒吧男招待
Plumber水管工人 actor/actress演员/女演
员 realtor manager经理
Solider士兵 secretary秘书 air man飞行
员 ticket agent售票员 newsman新闻记者
Farmer农民 fire fighter消防员 mayor市
长 engineer工程师 salesperson售货员
Entertainer演艺人员travel guide导游 researcher研究
员 photographer摄影师substitute teacher代课老
师 author,writer作家 tailor裁
缝 mechanic机械师 typist打字员
Taxi driver出租车司机 explorer探险
者 cleaner清洁工 doctor博士，医生
Fisher,fisherman渔民 news agent报刊经销人 poet诗
人 pastor牧师
Diplomat外交官 journalist新闻记者 janitor看门
人 pilot飞行员 company president总裁
Stage actor舞台演员 business owner企业
主 barber理发师 captain船长
Car mechanic汽车修理师minister部长 butcher 屠夫 commander指挥官
Cashier收银员 musician音乐家 steward乘务
员 pickpocket扒手 designer设计师
Politician,statesman政治家 judge法官 athlete运动
员 driver司机 teller出纳员
Editor编辑 interpreter口译员 bank employee银行职员 accountant会计师
Sales assistant助销员 hotel manager饭店经
理 astronaut宇航员
Web designer网页设计者 freelance writer自由作家
I am looking for a job these days我这些天一直在找工作
These days the job market is very tight这些天人才市场职位紧缺
We work on three-shift system我们三班倒 make a beeline for 直
奔flying saucer飞船
Press conference记者招待会 as far as…..concerned就什么而言What does this mean as far as the projection program concerned?。