财务管理(波司登)

Bosideng（波司登）(03998.HK)
이패닥2017055223 pany Profile
Since its establishment,Bosideng（波司登）has been the No.1seller of down jackets for23consecutive years.It is the debut leader in down jackets.In the early20th century,Bosideng expanded the four seasons of clothing based on the reputation of the down jacket brand,with a revenue of nearly10billion.However,due to the impact of the overall industry environment in2012,the adjustment of channels and inventory for three consecutive years led to a decline in revenue.By2015,the company saw signs of improvement and revenue increased steadily.
FY2017/18(2017.3.31~2018.3.31)achieved satisfactory operating results,with revenue increasing by 30.3%to8.88billion and net profit increasing by57%to615million yuan.Bosideng re-planned its strategic goal in2018–focusing on the main channel,focusing on the main brand and shrinking diversity.Rebranding from the channel side,product side,and marketing side,according to our judgment,Bosideng brand sales growth rate of35%+.The corresponding company's share price has risen from around RMB0.7/share at the beginning of2018(FY2017fiscal year ending March31,2018)to the current level of RMB2/share.
In May2019,the company announced that:1)the production and processing services provided by the parent company to the listed company were expanded from down jacket products to down jacket related materials;2)due to the unexpected increase in sales of down jackets,the FY2020payable parent company fee limit was revised.It will be extended for two years(the upper limit of2020/2021/2022is17.7/24.7/32.7billion yuan).This announcement highlights the company's continued deepening of the down apparel production chain and confidence in the future down apparel business.
In2019,with the recovery of the brand,product design innovation,marketing publicity,terminal store optimization and upgrading,sales are expected to continue to improve.For the medium and long term,I believe that the company's breakthrough in price increase strategy,channel upgrade and product innovation will help drive the company's subsequent large-scale growth.
Chart1,the company's stock price and valuation Changes
（from WIND database）
Ⅱ.financial analysis
The company's gross profit margin declined significantly in FY2013/14and FY2014/15,but FY2016/17and FY2017/18have gradually steadily rebounded.In terms of splitting,the gross profit margin of down jackets has been reduced due to discounts in previous years,and the gross profit margin has declined due to large changes in various brands.The future gross profit margin will be improved,mainly:
1.Down jackets will increase the average price with the launch of the new series;
2.Bosideng's men's wear and furniture business was divested,and the gross profit of the mid-to-high-end women's wear business was relatively high,which led to the company's gross profit level rising.The company's expense ratio decreased from FY2015/16year by year,mainly due to the reduction in the number of terminal stores and better management control.However,considering that the existing stores will be updated and replaced in the future,the sales expense ratio will increase,and the management fees will also face upward pressure due to the impact of equity incentives.
II.Chart2,Bosideng profit margin level(%)
（from WIND database）
Chart3,Bosideng three fees level(%)
Chart IV,Bosideng's business gross margin level
（from:company annual report）
Ⅲ.profit forecast
1.Revenue end:The operating income of FY2018/19~FY2020/21company is expected to be 10
2.5/126.8/15.44billion yuan,an increase of15.4%/2
3.8%/21.7%,respectively.
1)Down jacket business:The company plans to upgrade and replace the Bosideng brand70%~80%of
stores in the next three years,that is,to replace800~900stores every year,adopting the strategy of first opening and closing.Consider:1)New store from store decoration to location selection(high-traffic and younger street shops,emerging shopping malls and fashion department stores)can attract more passengers;2) Enrich the high-end product line to increase the average selling price(expected25%~30%);3)The new store area has increased.Therefore,it is judged that the income of FY2018/19~2020/21down jackets increased by 35%/28%/25%.
2)OEM business:According to the semi-annual report disclosure,the overall processing plan adjustment
affected the OEM processing business FY18/19growth of63.5%,it is expected that the OEM processing orders will be reduced in the second half of the year.Subsequent consideration of the instability of Sino-US trade frictions may affect this business.
3)Women's wear business:The Group's next four women's wear brands are positioned in mid-to-high-end
women's wear.It is expected that FY2018/19~FY2020/21will maintain a low single-digit growth.
4)Diversified business:The company plans to strip Bosideng men's wear and home,focusing on the main
brand Bosideng down jacket,so FY2017has already completed the inventory of this business and no longer produces new products.It is expected that the stripping will be completed gradually with the cleaning of the tail goods in the future.
2.Gross profit:Considering the increase in the average price of down jackets,the gross profit margin has
improved;the women's positioning has been high-end to high-end,and the gross profit margin has risen steadily;the diversified business with relatively low gross profit level has been eliminated,which ultimately affects the overall gross profit level.rise.In summary,the gross profit margin of FY2018/19~FY2020/21is 50%/50.5%/50.5%.
3.Fee side:1)As FY2018/19~FY2020/21companies have successively updated and replaced more than
70%of the stores,the expected sales expense rate level has increased compared with FY2017/18,and the subsequent gradually return to normal level.It is expected that FY2018/19~FY2020/21The sales expense ratio is29.5%/29.2%/29.0%;
2)The management fee is slightly affected by the equity incentive fee.The FY2018/19-FY2020/21
management expense ratio is expected to be8.3%/8.3%/8.3%.
Taking into account the business situation of each segment,the net profit of FY2018/19~FY2020/21is expected to be8.90/11.76/1.456billion yuan,an increase of45%/32%/24%.
Ⅳ.valuation rating
1.Absolute valuation:According to the DCF valuation method,assuming a perpetual growth
rate of2%and a WACC of7.71%,the sensitivity analysis is carried out for the weighted average cost of capital and the sustainable growth rate,and the valuation interval is2.27—HK$2.55, corresponding to20to23times PE in FY2019/20.
Figure5:WACC Assumptions and Calculations
Chart VI,Absolute Valuation Sensitivity Analysis
（from:Guosheng Securities Research Institute estimates）
2.Relative valuation:Compared with the overseas Canadian geese and Moncler,the PE in2019
is27/23times.The company is a leading company in the domestic down apparel industry, giving a20to25times valuation range in2019.
Chart VII,peer comparable company valuation comparison
（from:Guosheng Securities Research Institute estimate）
Ⅴ.Investment advice
The company is the first brand of national down jackets.After the clearing of inventory and channel reduction,the company has improved its internal quality.With the transformation of brand youth, continuous improvement of product strength and continuous improvement of supply chain efficiency,the subsequent revenue growth and profitability are expected to increase significantly.It is estimated that the net profit of FY2018/19~2020/21is8.90/11.76/1.456billion yuan,corresponding to22/17/14times of PE, and the“overweight”rating is given.
VI.risk tips
1.Macroeconomic growth slows consumption.The decline in per capita disposable income due to the slowdown in macroeconomic growth has affected consumption.
2.The recovery of the main brand did not meet expectations.The product did not meet consumer expectations,resulting in poor terminal sales,and the brand recovery was blocked.
3.Warm winter affects terminal sales.Down jackets are greatly affected by temperature,and if they are in warm winter,they will affect their terminal sales.。