清华大学经济学原理(钱颖一)Chapter_33
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第三十三章
总需求与总供给 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate
Supply
短期经济波动
Short-Run Economic
Fluctuations
经济活动年复一年地波动
Economic activity fluctuates from year to
year.
在大多数年份里，物品与服务的生产是上升的
所有宏观变量分成两类：名义变量与实际变量。 All macroeconomic variables can be separated into two groups: nominal variables and real variables.
货币供给的变化影响名义变量而非实际变量。 Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables.
0% 1978
-10% -20%
1983
1988
1993
资料来源：《新中国五十年统计资料汇编》《统计年鉴》
1998
2003
GDP增长率
工业总产值增长率10 固定资产投资增长率
关于经济波动的三个关键事实 Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuations
随着产出下降，失业上升。 As output falls, unemployment rises.
实际GDP的变化和失业率的变化呈反向关系。 Changes in real GDP are inversely related to changes in the unemployment rate.
在衰退时期，失业大幅上升。 During times of recession, unemployment rises substantially.
16
总需求与总供给模型 The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate 经济学家使用总S需u求p与p总ly供给模型来解
释经济活动围绕其长期趋势的短期波动 Economist use the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity around its long-run trend.
总需求与总供给模型 The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate
Supply
短期经济波动模型集中关注两个变量的行为。 The model of short-run economic fluctuation focuses on the behavior of two variables.
虽然许多宏观经济变量一起波动，他们波动的幅 度并不同。
Although many macroeconomic variables
fluctuate together, they fluctuate by different
amounts.
7
短期经济波动一瞥
A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
unpredictable.
经济当中的波动常常被称作经济周期（或译商业周期）
Fluctuations in the economy are often called the business
cycle.
大多数宏观经济变量一起波动。
Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate
Three Key Facts About
Economic Fluctuations
大多数宏观经济变量一起波动。
Most macroeconomic variables
fluctuate together.
大多数衡量某种收入或生产的宏观经济变量几乎 同时波动。
Most macroeconomic variables that measure some type of income or production fluctuate closely together.
$10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000 6,000
Real GDP
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 1965 1970
1975 1980 1985
1990 1995 2000 2005 5
短期经济波动一瞥：中国 A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations: China
(a) 实际GDP
衰退
6000
5000
指数（1952=100）
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977Hale Waihona Puke Baidu
1982
年份
1987
1992
1997
2002
资料来源： 《中国国内生产 总值核算历史资 料，1952－1995 》，《中国统计 年鉴》以及作者 计算。
6
关于经济波动的三个关键事实
一个旨在解释短期经济的新模型需要集中关注名义和实际 变量的相互影响。 A new model aiming to explain the economy in the shortrun should focus on how real and nominal variables
15
interact.
together.
随着产出下降，失业率上升。
As output falls, unemployment rises.
4
短期经济波动一瞥
A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
(a)Real GDP 实际GDP
Billions of 2000 Dollars
year.
在一些年份，正常的增长没能出现，导致了衰退。
In some years normal growth does not occur,
2
causing a recession.
短期经济波动 Short-Run Economic
Fluctuations
衰退是实际GDP下降、收入减少、失业上 升的时期 A recession is a period of declining real GDP, falling incomes, and rising unemployment.
Billions of 2000 Dollars
(b) Investment Spending 投资支出
$1,500
1,000 500
Investment Spending
0 1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005 8
短期经济波动一瞥：中国
A Look At Short-Run Economic
（以实际GDP衡量的）经济中物品与服务的产出。 The economy’s output of goods and services measured by real GDP.
（以CPI或GDP平减指数衡量的）整体价格水平。 The overall price level measured by the CPI or the GDP deflator.
Explaining Short-run Economic
Fluctuations
短期内，实际和名义变量高度相关。 In the short run, real and nominal variables are highly intertwined.
货币供给的变化能够暂时地将实际GDP移到其长期趋势之 外。 Changes in the money supply can temporarily push real GDP away from its long-run trend.
11
短期经济波动一瞥
A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
Percent of Labor Force
(c) Unemployment Rate 失业率
12%
10
Unemployment
8
Rate
6
4
2 1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Quantity of O1u8 tput 产出数量
总需求与总供给模型
The Model of Aggregate
Demand and Aggregate
Supply
总需求曲线表示家庭、企业或政府在任一价 格水平上想要购买的物品与服务的数量。 The aggregate demand curve shows the quantity of goods and services that households, firms, and the government want to buy at each price level.
总需求与总供给……
Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply...
Price Level 价格水平
Aggregate Supply 总供给
Equilibrium price level 均衡价格水平
0
Equilibrium Output 均衡产出
Aggregate Demand 总需求
2000
2005 12
解释短期经济波动
Explaining Short-run Economic
Fluctuations
古典经济学的基本假设是古典二分法与货币货 币中性 。 The basic assumptions of classical economics are the classical dichotomy and monetary neutrality.
不是单个物品市场需求曲线的加总。 It is not the sum of the market demand curves for individual goods.
萧条是严重的衰退 A depression is a severe recession.
3
关于经济波动的三个关键事实
Three Key Facts About
Economic Fluctuations
经济波动是不规则和不可预测的。
Economic fluctuations are irregular and
Fluctuations: Ch(ibn)a投资支出
12000
10000
衰退
8000
指数（1952=100）
6000
4000
2000
0 1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
年份
9
中国：GDP、工业生产总值、固定资产投资年增 长率的波动
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
13
解释短期经济波动
Explaining Short-run Economic
Fluctuations
按照古典经济学，我们在不引入名义变量（货币供给、价 格水平）的情况下，就能够考察实际变量（实际GDP、实 际利率和失业）的决定。 According to classical economics, we are able to examine the determinants of real variables (real GDP, the real interest rate, and unemployment) without introducing nominal variables (the money supply and the price level.)
In most years production of goods and services rises.
在过去50年，平均来说，美国经济的生产每年增长 约3个百分点。
On average over the past 50 years, production in the
U.S. economy has grown by about 3 percent per
大多数经济学家相信，古典理论描述了长期中的世界，但 没有描述短期中的世界。 Most economists believe that classical theory describes the world in the long run but not in the short run.
14
解释短期经济波动
总需求与总供给 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate
Supply
短期经济波动
Short-Run Economic
Fluctuations
经济活动年复一年地波动
Economic activity fluctuates from year to
year.
在大多数年份里，物品与服务的生产是上升的
所有宏观变量分成两类：名义变量与实际变量。 All macroeconomic variables can be separated into two groups: nominal variables and real variables.
货币供给的变化影响名义变量而非实际变量。 Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables.
0% 1978
-10% -20%
1983
1988
1993
资料来源：《新中国五十年统计资料汇编》《统计年鉴》
1998
2003
GDP增长率
工业总产值增长率10 固定资产投资增长率
关于经济波动的三个关键事实 Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuations
随着产出下降，失业上升。 As output falls, unemployment rises.
实际GDP的变化和失业率的变化呈反向关系。 Changes in real GDP are inversely related to changes in the unemployment rate.
在衰退时期，失业大幅上升。 During times of recession, unemployment rises substantially.
16
总需求与总供给模型 The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate 经济学家使用总S需u求p与p总ly供给模型来解
释经济活动围绕其长期趋势的短期波动 Economist use the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity around its long-run trend.
总需求与总供给模型 The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate
Supply
短期经济波动模型集中关注两个变量的行为。 The model of short-run economic fluctuation focuses on the behavior of two variables.
虽然许多宏观经济变量一起波动，他们波动的幅 度并不同。
Although many macroeconomic variables
fluctuate together, they fluctuate by different
amounts.
7
短期经济波动一瞥
A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
unpredictable.
经济当中的波动常常被称作经济周期（或译商业周期）
Fluctuations in the economy are often called the business
cycle.
大多数宏观经济变量一起波动。
Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate
Three Key Facts About
Economic Fluctuations
大多数宏观经济变量一起波动。
Most macroeconomic variables
fluctuate together.
大多数衡量某种收入或生产的宏观经济变量几乎 同时波动。
Most macroeconomic variables that measure some type of income or production fluctuate closely together.
$10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000 6,000
Real GDP
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 1965 1970
1975 1980 1985
1990 1995 2000 2005 5
短期经济波动一瞥：中国 A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations: China
(a) 实际GDP
衰退
6000
5000
指数（1952=100）
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977Hale Waihona Puke Baidu
1982
年份
1987
1992
1997
2002
资料来源： 《中国国内生产 总值核算历史资 料，1952－1995 》，《中国统计 年鉴》以及作者 计算。
6
关于经济波动的三个关键事实
一个旨在解释短期经济的新模型需要集中关注名义和实际 变量的相互影响。 A new model aiming to explain the economy in the shortrun should focus on how real and nominal variables
15
interact.
together.
随着产出下降，失业率上升。
As output falls, unemployment rises.
4
短期经济波动一瞥
A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
(a)Real GDP 实际GDP
Billions of 2000 Dollars
year.
在一些年份，正常的增长没能出现，导致了衰退。
In some years normal growth does not occur,
2
causing a recession.
短期经济波动 Short-Run Economic
Fluctuations
衰退是实际GDP下降、收入减少、失业上 升的时期 A recession is a period of declining real GDP, falling incomes, and rising unemployment.
Billions of 2000 Dollars
(b) Investment Spending 投资支出
$1,500
1,000 500
Investment Spending
0 1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005 8
短期经济波动一瞥：中国
A Look At Short-Run Economic
（以实际GDP衡量的）经济中物品与服务的产出。 The economy’s output of goods and services measured by real GDP.
（以CPI或GDP平减指数衡量的）整体价格水平。 The overall price level measured by the CPI or the GDP deflator.
Explaining Short-run Economic
Fluctuations
短期内，实际和名义变量高度相关。 In the short run, real and nominal variables are highly intertwined.
货币供给的变化能够暂时地将实际GDP移到其长期趋势之 外。 Changes in the money supply can temporarily push real GDP away from its long-run trend.
11
短期经济波动一瞥
A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
Percent of Labor Force
(c) Unemployment Rate 失业率
12%
10
Unemployment
8
Rate
6
4
2 1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Quantity of O1u8 tput 产出数量
总需求与总供给模型
The Model of Aggregate
Demand and Aggregate
Supply
总需求曲线表示家庭、企业或政府在任一价 格水平上想要购买的物品与服务的数量。 The aggregate demand curve shows the quantity of goods and services that households, firms, and the government want to buy at each price level.
总需求与总供给……
Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply...
Price Level 价格水平
Aggregate Supply 总供给
Equilibrium price level 均衡价格水平
0
Equilibrium Output 均衡产出
Aggregate Demand 总需求
2000
2005 12
解释短期经济波动
Explaining Short-run Economic
Fluctuations
古典经济学的基本假设是古典二分法与货币货 币中性 。 The basic assumptions of classical economics are the classical dichotomy and monetary neutrality.
不是单个物品市场需求曲线的加总。 It is not the sum of the market demand curves for individual goods.
萧条是严重的衰退 A depression is a severe recession.
3
关于经济波动的三个关键事实
Three Key Facts About
Economic Fluctuations
经济波动是不规则和不可预测的。
Economic fluctuations are irregular and
Fluctuations: Ch(ibn)a投资支出
12000
10000
衰退
8000
指数（1952=100）
6000
4000
2000
0 1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
年份
9
中国：GDP、工业生产总值、固定资产投资年增 长率的波动
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
13
解释短期经济波动
Explaining Short-run Economic
Fluctuations
按照古典经济学，我们在不引入名义变量（货币供给、价 格水平）的情况下，就能够考察实际变量（实际GDP、实 际利率和失业）的决定。 According to classical economics, we are able to examine the determinants of real variables (real GDP, the real interest rate, and unemployment) without introducing nominal variables (the money supply and the price level.)
In most years production of goods and services rises.
在过去50年，平均来说，美国经济的生产每年增长 约3个百分点。
On average over the past 50 years, production in the
U.S. economy has grown by about 3 percent per
大多数经济学家相信，古典理论描述了长期中的世界，但 没有描述短期中的世界。 Most economists believe that classical theory describes the world in the long run but not in the short run.
14
解释短期经济波动