关于财政收入与支出问题的研究eviews

关于财政收入与支出问题的研究

一、财政收入对于国民经济的运行及社会的发展具有重要影响，财政收入是财政支出的前提，但财政支出也会影响财政收入。财政收入与支出都对整个国家有着重要的作用。随着经济的快速发展，财政收入与财政支出都在增加，但收入的增长速度小于支出的增长速度，因此本文认为财政收入与支出存在赤字关系，以下为我的模型检验。

二、下表为我国2000年~2014年的财政收入与支出

年份财政收入X 财政支出Y

2000 13395.23 15886.5

2001 16386.04 18902.58

2002 18903.64 22053.15

2003 21715.25 24649.95

2004 26396.47 28486.89

2005 31649.29 33930.28

2006 38760.2 40422.73

2007 51321.78 49781.35

2008 61330.35 62592.66

2009 68518.3 76299.93

2010 83101.51 89874.16

2011 103874.43 109247.79

2012 117253.52 125952.97

2013 129209.64 140212.1

2014 140349.74 151661.54

三、对X和Y进行回归分析

Dependent Variable: Y

Method: Least Squares

Date: 06/16/15 Time: 22:35

Sample: 2000 2014

Included observations: 15

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C137.41111022.5170.1343850.8952

X 1.0712760.01371378.123440.0000

R-squared0.997875 Mean dependent var65996.97

Adjusted R-squared0.997711 S.D. dependent var46844.24

S.E. of regression2241.180 Akaike info criterion18.39096

Sum squared resid65297570 Schwarz criterion18.48537

Log likelihood-135.9322 Hannan-Quinn criter.18.38995

F-statistic6103.272 Durbin-Watson stat 1.237485

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000

Y = 137.411117827 + 1.0712********X

（1022.517）（0.013713）

t= (0.134385）（78.12344）

R^2=0.997711 F=6103.272 n=15

对X和Y进行回归分析中，可决系数为0.997875，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好，检验通过。

三、对数据进行平稳性检验

Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=3)

t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic-2.020749 0.2742 Test critical values:1% level-4.420595

5% level-3.259808

10% level-2.771129

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations

and may not be accurate for a sample size of 9

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(X,3)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 06/22/15 Time: 17:02

Sample (adjusted): 2006 2014

Included observations: 9 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(X(-1),2)-6.654768 3.293218-2.0207490.1134 D(X(-1),3) 4.841353 2.682555 1.8047540.1454 D(X(-2),3) 2.902681 1.863330 1.5577920.1943 D(X(-3),3) 1.594822 1.184025 1.3469500.2492 C8294.9864856.551 1.7079990.1628 R-squared0.814500 Mean dependent var-154.1800 Adjusted R-squared0.629001 S.D. dependent var7113.613 S.E. of regression4332.881 Akaike info criterion19.88603 Sum squared resid75095429 Schwarz criterion19.99560 Log likelihood-84.48715 Hannan-Quinn criter.19.64958 F-statistic 4.390846 Durbin-Watson stat 2.232746 Prob(F-statistic)0.090464