交通流预测

目录

摘要.............................................................. I I 绪论. (1)

一、单因素方差分析 (1)

1.1单因素方差分析简介 (1)

1.2单因素方差分析模型 (2)

二、单因素方差分析的应用 (3)

2.1问题叙述 (3)

2.2模型假设 (4)

2.3符号说明 (4)

2.4模型的建立与求解 (5)

三、模型评价与推广 (17)

参考文献 (18)

致谢.............................................. 错误！未定义书签。

摘 要

本文研究的是估算当车道被占用时对城市道路的通行能力影响程度，并且通过本次研究分析为交通管理部门正确引导车辆行驶、审批占道施工、设计道路渠化方案、设置路边停车位等提供理论依据。根据观测数据，结合数学软件，采用应用交通流波动理论与数据分析相关方法对事故所处横截面通行能力变化进行分析，以及占道不同对横截面通行能力的影响的说明。

对于问题一，我们提取了视频1的交通调查数据，并进行了预处理，对本文中一些需要用的专有名词进行定义，初步的对事故发生横断面实际通行能力变化进行分析，得到横截面实际通行能力变化是周期性振幅可变的运动。

对于问题二，我们观察了视频2进行了类似的处理，然后运用SASV8进行描述统计分析和以占用车道的变化进行单因素方差分析，最后得到检验p 值为

0222.0，对于所占车道不同对该横断面实际通行能力影响有显著性差异，并检验

了同时置信区间至少95%置信度下，2u 比1u 大。

对于问题三，建立基于交通流理论的交通事故影响路段车辆排队长度计算模型，以流体动力学为基本原理，模拟流体的连续性方程，建立车流的连续性方程。由事故持续时间的长短分三种情况，建立起路段车辆排队长度与事故横断面实际通行能力、事故持续时间、路段上游车流量间的关系。

对于问题四，我们针对问题三所建立的模型对视频1进行了更深层的数据调查与处理，并运用题设数据对模型进行求解，得到结果0.2016h 1 T 。

关键字：实际通行能力 单因素方差分析 交通流理论

Traffic Flow Prediction

Abstract

This study is to estimate the city road traffic capacity influence when the lane was occupied , and proper guidance for the traffic management department vehicle, approval lane construction, design of road drainage scheme, set up roadside parking spaces to provide a theoretical basis for analysis by this study. According to observational data, combined with mathematical software, using the theory and application of traffic flow data analysis methods for the accident in which the cross-sectional analysis of changes in capacity, as well as description of the cross-section of different lane capacity impacts.

An analysis of the first problem: We extract the traffic survey data of video 1, and the pretreatment of the paper, which in this article some of the terminology needs to be defined by the initial cross-section of an accident changes in actual capacity analysis, cross-section the actual capacity change is cyclical variable amplitude motion

An analysis of the second problem: For the second question, we have observed the video 2 conducted a similar deal, then uses SASV8 to change and lane occupancy of single factor variance analysis descriptive statistics analysis, the last to be tested is 0.2222, for the different sound Lane had significant difference on the cross section of the actual capacity, and test and confidence interval at least 95% confidence level, u2 than u1.

An analysis of the third problem: Based on theory of gather-disperse wave to establish the impact of accidents distribution road vehicle queue length calculation model, the basic principles of fluid dynamics to simulate fluid continuity equation, continuity equation traffic flow. By the length of the duration of the accident in three cases, and establish a road accident vehicle queue length and the cross-sectional relationship between the actual capacity, the duration of the accident, road traffic between upstream.

An analysis of the fourth problem: We created problems for the model of the video one of three conducted deeper data collection and processing, and applying

the data to solve the model, get the results is 0.2013h

【Key Word】Actual Capacity , one-way ANOV A , Theory of Traffic Flow