麦肯锡咨询报告原版mgi_poverty_v2

Stalled reforms Inclusive reforms
Accelerate farm productivity improvements
+75
+115
312
352 2.3
2.0% p.a.
5.5% p.a.
3.9
237
2.8
Improve effectiveness of public spending
An average Indian lacks access to 46% of services
Average deprivation scores by basic service (percent)
Two types of basic services
CDS
Community level services
EDUCATION
Primary + secondary schooling (or vocational training)
Essential primary, secondary and tertiary care
ENERGY
Clean fuel for domestic needs
Basic needs
From poverty to empowerment
India’s imperative for jobs, growth and effective basic services
MGI INDIA | March, 2014
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited
2
What it would take to economically empower every Indian – fulfilling eight basic needs SOCIAL SECURITY
Insurance to cover income loss
FOOD
Sufficient calories, proteins and fats
McKinsey Global Institute: our research on India
2014 2010 2007
2001
1
Encouraging progress on extreme poverty reduction
Headcount ratio of population below India’s official poverty line Percent
64 52 51 47 36 Best performing states at 80-90%
9
50
NREGA
Education
50
Fue Inefficiencies and leakages Health, drinking water and sanitation
If subsidy delivery nationwide was as effective as in India’s best performing states, 85 million more people would be above the official poverty line
Stalled reforms Inclusive reforms
56 36
580mn
7
2012 2022 – Stalled reforms 2022 – Inclusive reforms Nhomakorabea22
250 mn 12 1
2022 – Stalled reforms 2022 – Inclusive reforms
HEALTHCARE
HOUSING
A minimum decent dwelling unit
SANITATION
Sanitary latrine / sewerage systems
1 Protein and fat norms for adults SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Percent
Increase public spending on basic services
INR ’000s crore, 2012
25 p.p.
75 570
6.7% p.a. 3.1% p.a.
1,088
50
50
771
2012
2022 – stalled 2022 – inclusive reforms reforms
680 mn below Empowerment Line
INR 1,336 Empowerment line
Poverty Gap 0.6% of GDP
0 5
270 mn below Poverty Line
INR 874 Official poverty line
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
2011-12
78% Share of past poverty reduction 37%
74%
26%
56%
Below Poverty Line
66%
34%
22%
SOURCE: National Sample Survey Office survey, household consumption survey, 61 st (2005) and 68th (2012) rounds; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Empowerment Gap by service and sector, 2011–12 %; INR thousand crore ($ billion1)
Fuel Housing
107 ($22) 1
226 ($47)
10 9
332 ($69) 7 17 19
20
32
18
Education Food Health, water, sanitation Others
45
37
30 22
1993-94
Headcount below official poverty line Million 404
2004-05
407
2009-10
354
2011-12
270
SOURCE: Planning Commission of India; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
8
Government social spending is 6% of GDP but half of it does not benefit the people
2011-12 government spending
100% =INR 570,000 crore
Food
Estimated efficiency/effectiveness of all-India government spending % of spending that typically reaches the people
DRINKING WATER
Adequate piped water for the household
3
680 million live below the Empowerment Line –2.5 times the extremely poor and 7 times their consumption gap
Historical reduction of Empowerment Gap largely from higher incomes
Empowerment Gap, 2005–12 %; INR thousand crore
xx% Headcount ratio
2004-05 Below Empowerment Line
SOURCE: NSSO, government fiscal statistics, MGI analysis
Looking ahead, two possible scenarios for India
Percent of population Below Empowerment Line Below Poverty Line
4
2
57% HDS 39% CDS
3
HOUSEHOLD SERVICES DEPRIVED
LEAST DEPRIVED
38% HDS 31% CDS
41% HDS 41% CDS
MODERATELY DEPRIVED
7
SOURCE: Census 2011, District-Level Health Survey 2007-08, DISE 2009-10, MGI analysis
Average monthly consumption expenditure INR per capita per month, 2011-12, in 2011-12 prices
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Empowerment Gap 4% of GDP
21
9
25
37 -1
Urban
40 -1
Rural
39 -1
Total
1 Using average exchange rate of US $1 = INR 48.0769 for 1 April 2011 to 31 March 2012. SOURCE: NSSO 68th round, McKinsey Global Institute 5
2012
GDP growth rate 5.5% vs. 7.8%
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
10
Four inclusive reform themes
More and better non-farm jobs Million Yield (tonnes per hectare)
Percentile of population (percent)
SOURCE: National Sample Survey Office survey, 68th round; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
4
Health, drinking water and sanitation form the largest share of the Empowerment Gap
HDS
Household level services
Six basic services
53
Healthcare1
59
Energy
57
Sanitation
23
Education1
18
Drinking Water
5
Housing
46
Overall ADS2
1 Healthcare metrics include ORS, immunisation and health infrastructure; education metrics include net enrolment and classroom and teacher availability; energy includes electricity and LPG usage 2 ADS is a population-weighted average of district-level access deprivation score SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis 6
2012
2022 – stalled 2022 – inclusive reforms reforms
11
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Access deprivation varies by type of service
HDS: Housing, energy,
sanitation, drinking water 1
CDS: Healthcare &
Education
62% HDS 56% CDS
MOST DEPRIVED
COMMUNITY SERVICES DEPRIVED 5 20% HDS 46% CDS