投资项目分析ppt课件

0.00%
Unit price
$5,000
Unit Price Growth
0.00%
Fixed Start
3,100,000
Fixed Growth
0.00%
Variable pcent
75.00%
Depreciation schedule 400,000
Start working capt
2,200,000
第六章:投资项目分析
•1
第六章主要内容
1 项目分析的特性 2 投资创意从何而来? 3 NPV 投资法则 4 项目现金流测算 5 资本成本 6 敏感性分析
7 削减成本型项目分析 8 不同生命周期的项目 9 互斥性项目排序 10 通货膨胀和资本预算
•2
学习目的
0
2200 2,800 5,000 -5,000 -5000
(Table in $'000)
NPV =
1
20,000
3,100 15,000
400 1,500
600 900 1,300
0 1,300 1130
2
19,788
3,348 14,841
•6
NPV as a Function of Discount Rate
NPV
250 200 150 100
50 0 0%
-50 -100 -150 -200
5%
10%
15%
20%
Discount Rate
•7
平均资本成本: 三种证券的例子
令
ke 股票收益率 kd 债券收益率 kp 优先股收益率 Ve 股票市场价值 Vd 债券市场价值 Vp 优先股市场价值
0
2200 2,800 5,000 -5,000 -5000
1
20,000
3,100 15,000
400 1,500
600 900 1,300
0 1,300 1130
NPV =
2
20,000
3,100 15,000
400 1,500
600 900 1,300
0 0 1,300 983
3
20,000
3,100 15,000
400 1,500
600 900 1,300
0 0 1,300 855
1236
4
20,000
3,100 15,000
400 1,500
600 900 1,300
0 0 1,300 743
5
20,000
3,100 15,000
400 1,500
600 900 1,300
0 0 1,300 646
6Biblioteka Baidu
20,000
利用折现现金流法分析:
是否进入新的业务 是否通过设备投资降低成本
•3
NPV of a Project
Discout
10%
Year
Flow
PV
Cum_PV
0 -1000 -1000 -1000
1
450
409
-591
2
350
289
-302
3
250
188
-114
4
150
102
-11
5
50
31
40.00%
Unit sales in year 1
$4,000
Sales growth rate
2.00%
Unit price
$5,000
Unit Price Growth
-3.00%
Fixed Start
3,100,000
Fixed Growth
8.00%
Variable pcent
75.00%
Investment schedule 2,800,000
Capital movements sch
0
Dividend
1,000,000
Working Cap Sch
2,200,000
Year CF Forecast Sales revenue Expenses Fixed Costs (cash) Variable costs Depreciation Operating Profit Taxes Net Profit Operating CF Working cap move Investment in P&E Invest CF Net CF PV(NCF)
20
NPV
DCF Payback
20 Do Project
•4
NPV of a Project
Discout
15%
Year
Flow
PV
Cum_PV
0 -1000 -1000 -1000
1
450
391
-609
2
350
265
-344
3
250
164
-180
4
150
86
-94
5
50
25
-69
NPV
-69
Don’t Do Project
Depreciation schedule 400,000
Start working capt
2,200,000
Investment schedule 2,800,000
Capital movements sch
0
Dividend
1,000,000
Working Cap Sch
2,200,000
Year CF Forecast Sales revenue Expenses Fixed Costs (cash) Variable costs Depreciation Operating Profit Taxes Net Profit Operating CF Working cap move Investment in P&E Invest CF Net CF PV(NCF)
•5
NPV of a Project
Internal Rate of Return
Discout
11.04%
Year
Flow
PV
Cum_PV
0 -1000 -1000 -1000
1
450
405
-595
2
350
284
-311
3
250
183
-128
4
150
99
-30
5
50
30
0
NPV
0
Indifferent
t 税率
•8
平均资本成本: 三种证券的例子
k = ke * Ve + kp * Vp + kd * Vd* (1 - t) 平均资本成本也是公司各分部资本成本以
其市场价值为权重计算的平均成本。
•9
Tax rate
40.00%
Unit sales in year 1
$4,000
Sales growth rate
3,100 15,000
400 1,500
600 900 1,300
0 0 1,300 562
7
20,000
3,100 15,000
400 1,500
600 900 1,300 -2,200
0 -2,200 3,500
1316
•10
Assumptions
Cost of capital
15.00%
Tax rate