中国对外贸易依存度的波动性分析3

内容摘要

1980年以来，我国的对外贸易不断发展，对外贸易依存度也不断提升。据世界银行的数据显示，中国的对外贸易依存度从1980年的18.8%升高到2010年的51.7%，并曾达到64.9%的历史高值，中国已经成为世界对外贸易依存度最高的经济体之一。本文从波动性的视角，参考1980年到2010年的相关数据，通过比较分析、数据分析等方法，研究了1978年的改革开放、1997年的亚洲金融危机、2001年的中国入世以及2007年的美国次贷危机四个事件期间中国对外贸易依存度的波动变化。分析发现，改革开放为对外贸易提供了开放的政策，对外贸易开始在国民收入中的比重不断升高，为中国对外贸易依存度的不断升高打开了大门；而2001年中国入世后，贸易环境改善、开放性进一步加大，中国的对外贸易依存度持续走高。至于这30年间发生的两次规模较大的金融危机——1997年的亚洲金融危机尽管对中国的对外贸易依存度造成了一定的影响，但远没有2007年美国次贷危机造成的波动大，不过也为中国对外贸易的发展模式和结构敲响了警钟。而美国次贷危机由于美国在世界经济格局中的重要地位以及波及了世界主要的发达国家，造成了中国对外贸易依存度的大波动。鉴于对外贸易依存度从某种程度上反映了一国经济对世界市场的依赖程度，其波动过大不利于国家经济的持续健康发展。因此应采取扩大内需、

调整产业结构以及发展第三产业等手段，使对外贸易依存度稳定在相对合理水平。

关键词：对外贸易依存度，波动性，出口依存度，进口依存度

Abstract

Since 1980, with the continually developing foreign trade, China's foreign-trade dependence (FTD) has been increasing accordingly. World Bank shows there is evidence that China's FTD increased from 18.8% in 1980 to 51.7% in the year 2010, once topped with 64.9%, and China has developed to one of the countries which have highest FTD all over the world. From the view of fluctuation, this paper reference to the related data of 1980-2010, researches China’s FTD fluctuation during the four events which are the 1978 Reform, the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, China's WTO accession in 2001 and the U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis in 2007，by comparison analysis and data analysis. Analysis found that the 1978 Reform provided an open policy, with which foreign trade turned out to be a growing proportion of GDP, and it became a start of the continuous rising of China’s FTD. Then after China's entering WTO in 2001, the better environment stimulated China’s FTD growth. As for the economic crisis in the 30 years – 1997 though impacted China's foreign trade, not as serious as 2007 the U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis, however, also alarmed us for the mode and structure of China's foreign trade development. As the U.S. played such an important role in global economy, and major developed

countries were involved, when the Subprime Mortgage Crisis out broke, China's foreign trade fluctuated violently. Since to some extent FTD reflects one nation’s economy dependence degree on global market, its abnormal fluctuation will do harm to economy’s sustainable and healthy development. So, expand the domestic demand, adjust industrial structure and develop the tertiary industry are necessary to make the fluctuation of FTD at a reasonable level.

Keywords: Foreign-Trade Dependence, Fluctuation, Export Dependence, Import Dependence

目录

一、引言 (1)

二、理论综述 (1)

三、中国对外贸易依存度的现状与特点 (2)

四、我国对外贸易依存度波动的历史轨迹 (4)

（一）改革开放 (5)

（二）1997年亚洲金融危机 (6)

（三）加入世界贸易组织（WTO） (8)

（四）次贷危机 (9)

五、降低对外贸易依存度波动性的对策 (11)