经济学人 文章选读 2 美债危机

America's economy

美国经济

Aug 6th 2011 | from the print edition

Time for a double dip?

二次探底的时候到了吗？

A lousy debt deal, rising fears of a recession, the danger of longer-term stagnation: America’s outlook is grim

债务协议一塌糊涂，衰退之忧与日俱增，长期经济停滞之虞：美国前景堪忧。

THIS ought t o have been a good week for the American economy. The country’s leaders at last ended a ludicrously irresponsible bout of fiscal brinkmanship, removing the threat of global financial Armageddon by agreeing to raise the federal debt ceiling. Yet far from heaving a sigh of relief, investors are nervous. Stockmarkets around the world have tumbled(see article). On August 2nd, the day the debt deal was signed, the S&P 500 index saw its biggest one-day fall in over a year, and yields on ten-year Treasury bonds dropped to 2.6%, their lowest level in nine months, as investors sought safety.

对美国经济而言，这本来应该是表现良好的一周。该国的领导人在最后一刻结束了既荒谬又不负责任的财政边缘政策，一致同意提高联邦债务的上限，消除了全球金融大灾难的威胁。然而，投资者根本没有松一口气，而是紧张不已。世界各地的股市纷纷下挫。8月2日，签订债务协议当天，标普500指数的单日跌幅是一年来最大，由于投资者寻求安全的投资，10年期国库券的收益率下降至2.6%，降到了9个月来的最低水平。

It is not all to do with America: the euro zone is a mess (see article) and manufacturing everywhere seems to be slowing. But America’s prospects have suddenly darkened. Statistical revisions and some grim new figures have revealed a weaker-than-assumed recovery that has all but ground to a halt. Once stalled, an economy can easily tip back into recession, particularly if it is hit by a new shock—as America’s is about to be, thanks to a hefty dose of fiscal tightening made worse by the debt deal. The odds of a double dip over the coming year are uncomfortably high, perhaps as high as 50%.

这并非只与美国有关：欧元区一片混乱，各地的制造业似乎都在放缓。但是美国的前景突然变暗淡了。统计数据的修订以及一些严峻的新数字已经表明比预期疲软的复苏几乎停滞不前了。经济一旦停滞不前就很容易重陷衰退，要是受到新的冲击更是如此——由于债务协议将使财政紧缩更加严厉，美国经济即将受到新的冲击。来年二次探底的可能性非常之高，可能高达50%。

America’s recovery from a balance-sheet recession was always bound to be sluggish and fragile. And its woes need not fell the world economy, thanks to the strength of emerging markets (see Economics focus). But the thoughtlessness of the debt deal—notably its failure to tackle any of the real sources of America’s fiscal problems, such as entitlement spending—raises a bigger worry. Can the country’s politicians, so starkly polarised and so willing to gamble with the economy, be trusted not to turn what was always an inevitable period of hardship into longer-term stagnation?

美国从资产负债表衰退中复苏通常必定是缓慢而脆弱的。由于新兴市场的力量，美国的困境不一定会摧毁世界经济。但是协议的考虑不周——主要是没有解决美国财政真正的根源性问题，比如福利开支——引发了更大的担忧。人们能相信走极端又乐意拿经济博弈的美国政客不会将通常不可避免的困难期转变为较长期的停滞吗？

The fin rising to the surface

恶兆浮出水面

Begin with the state of the recovery. On July 29th America’s government statisticians published revisions to the past few years of GDP statistics. They showed that the 2008 recession was deeper than first thought, and the subsequent recovery flatter. Output has not yet regained its pre-recession peak. And the feeble recovery is petering out. Over the past year output has grown by a mere 1.6%, well below what most economists consider to be the economy’s underlying growth rate, and a pace that has in the past almost always been followed by recession. Over the past six months the United States has eked out annualised growth of merely 0.8%. Even observers who, like us, had expected America to bounce along near the bottom for a while had not expected growth to be this low.

先从复苏状况说起。7月29日，美国政府的统计人员公布了过去几年国内生产总值统计数据的修订版。它们表明，与起初设想的情况相比，2008年的衰退更加严重，随后的复苏也更加乏力。产出还没有恢复到衰退前的峰值。乏力的复苏正在消失殆尽。在过去一年，产出只增长了1.6%，远远低于大多数经济学家认为的潜在经济增长率，以往出现这样的速度，随之而来的通常是衰退。在过去6个月，按年率计算，美国只增长了0.8%。我们预计美国的复苏会在低谷附近徘徊一段时间，但是连像我们这样的观察人士也没有预测到增长会如此缓慢。

Temporary factors have played some role in this. Soaring oil prices crimped consumer spending. The Japanese earthquake disturbed supply chains. In some industries, notably car production, a rebound is plainly under way. But the overall economy is now so weak that it would take a lot to get growth up to a reasonable rate. And there are some signs that the temporary shocks may have left a more lasting dent on the psyche of firms and shoppers. That is why the newest figures are so disconcerting. Consumer spending fell in June; consumer confidence slumped in July, as did manufa cturers’ orders. Of course, these are early, incomplete, snapshots, but the chances of a double dip over the coming year, which seemed relatively small only a month ago, have risen alarmingly.

临时性因素产生了一些影响。石油价格飙升抑制了消费者开支。日本地震扰乱了供应链。在一些产业，主要是汽车业，复苏正在有序进行。但是目前，经济总体而言呈现颓势，要付出巨大努力才能将增长率提升到合理的水平。有迹象表明，短暂的冲击可能给企业和顾客留下更加持久的精神创伤。正因为这样，最新的数字才令人如此不安。6月，消费者开支有所下降；7月，制造商的订单大幅减少，消费者的信心也大跌。诚然，这些是不完整的早期征兆，就在1个月前，二次探底的可能性似乎相对较小，但是接下来一年二次探底的可能性已经增加到了令人焦虑不安的程度。