电力系统安全风险评估与脆弱性分析

华中科技大学

硕士学位论文

电力系统安全风险评估与脆弱性分析

姓名：孙飞

申请学位级别：硕士

专业：电气工程

指导教师：张哲

2011-05-27

摘要

电力系统的安全关系到国家的安全、社会的稳定以及人民的生活。随着经济社会的发展，电力系统也日趋复杂和庞大，各种新技术的应用也给电力系统的安全稳定运行增加了更多不确定性因素。近些年世界范围内频发的大面积停电事故，使人们深刻地认识到传统的基于电网稳定性分析的安全评估方法已经不能有效地保证电力系统的安全稳定运行。因此，结合我国电力系统的实际，研究建立具有客观性、实用性和适应性的电力系统安全风险评估方法，并在此基础上开展电力系统的脆弱性研究具有非常重要的理论和现实意义。

论文首先对国内外电力系统安全风险评估和脆弱性分析的研究现状和面临的主要问题进行了综述分析，在此基础上，从工程实用化的角度，提出了对电力系统进行安全风险评估与脆弱性分析的新方法。

通过对电力系统大停电事故的原因进行分析，应用事故树分析法将大停电的原因归类为结构、技术、设备和管理四大要素，并重点对结构、技术、设备三大要素进行逐层细分，得到了电力系统安全风险评估与脆弱性分析的四级指标体系。指标体系是电力系统安全风险评估与脆弱性分析的基础。文中对指标体系的结构进行了阐述。

指标权重的分配是电力系统安全风险评估与脆弱性分析的关键。由于电力系统本身的复杂性，安全风险评估与脆弱性分析指标体系中包含了大量的定性指标。文中利用层次分析法，实现了定性指标与定量指标的权重分配，并用实例比较了不同标度法对权重分配计算结果的影响。

判断矩阵描述了指标之间的相对重要性关系，因此判断矩阵的一致性程度决定了指标权重分配结果的合理性。文中对判断矩阵的一致性问题进行建模，采用遗传算法实现了判断矩阵一致性寻优，通过案例计算证明了该优化方法的有效性。

脆弱性分析的目的是要找出电力系统的脆弱点。文中从复杂电力系统的角度探索了电力系统脆弱性的定义。在电力系统安全风险评估的基础上，利用模糊层次分析法，

综合考虑四级指标数量及其安全风险评估得分，提出了电力系统脆弱性分析的一种新方法。并以我国某省网为试点进行了电力系统脆弱性分析。

在论文的最后，对全文进行了回顾和总结，分析了本文的不足，并展望了下一步的研究工作方向。

关键词：电力系统安全风险评估脆弱性分析层次分析法模糊层次分析法遗传算法一致性优化

ABSTRACT

The security of electrical power system concerns the security of a nation, the stability of a society and people's daily life. With the development of the society, the electrical power system becomes much more huge and complex. Applications of new technology in electrical network also bring more uncertainties into power system's stability. With the fact that large area blackouts happened worldwide frequently in recent years, people have come to realize that traditional security risk assessment methods based on electrical network stability analysis is not adequate to guarantee the security and stability of electrical power system. Thus, with regard to the characteristics of China's power system, establishing new methods of objectivity, practicality and adaptability of security risk assessment, and on this basis, developing vulnerability research of power system are of great importance practically and theoretically.

Firstly, recent research and main problems acquainted in the subject focused in this paper are summarized. On this basis, a new method of power system risk assessment and vulnerability analysis is proposed in perspective of application in engineering.

By analyzing blackouts, this paper concluded the causes of outages into four main factors as power system structure, power network technology, electrical equipment and management in power system, using Fault Tree Analysis. A Four-class index system of power system risk assessment and vulnerability analysis is established, which is the basis of following work. The structure of the index system is illustrated in this paper.

Allocation of index weight is the key problem in the power system risk assessment and vulnerability analysis. Because of the complexity of electrical power system, a lot of qualitative indices are included in the index system. Therefore, Analytic Hierarchy Process is introduced to allocate the weight of index. Several examples are illustrated to compare the influence of different scale to allocation result.

Comparison matrix describes the relationship of indices. And the comparison's consistency degree determines the rationality of weight allocation. This paper first