经济学人中英对照Phoney currency wars

Phoney currency wars

货币战争？危言耸听！

The world should welcome the monetary assertiveness of Japan and America

世界应该欢迎日本与美国的货币自信

OFFICIALS from the world’s biggest economies meet on February 15th-16th in Moscow on a mission to avert war. Not one with bombs and bullets, but a “currency war”. Finance ministers and central bankers worry that their peers in the G20 will devalue their currencies to boost exports and grow their economies at their neighbours’ expense.

2月15至16日,来自世界几大经济体的官员集聚莫斯科,旨在避免一场战争。这不是一场真刀真枪的战争，而是“货币战争”。20国集团国家的财政部长、央行行长们都担心对方会贬低货币价值来拉动出口，即采取以邻为壑的措施来促进经济增长。

Emerging economies, led by Brazil, first accused America of instigating a currency war in 2010 when the Federal Reserve bought heaps of bonds with newly created money. That “quantitative easing” (QE) made investors flood into emerging markets in search of better returns, lifting their exchange rates. Now those charges are being levelled at Japan. Shinzo Abe, the new prime minister, has promised bold stimulus to restart growth and vanquish deflation. He has also called for a weaker yen to bolster exports; it has duly fallen by 16% against the dollar and 19% against the euro since the end of September (when it was clear that Mr Abe was heading for power).

2010年，以巴西为首的新兴国家率先指责美国挑起货币战。当时，美联储用新印刷的钞票购买大量债券。该“量化宽松”（QE）措施导致投资者蜂拥至新兴国家寻求更高回报，推高新兴国家货币的汇率。而今，新兴国家把矛头指向日本。日本新任首相安倍晋三承诺会采取大胆的刺激措施重振日本经济，摆脱通货紧缩。他也要求压低日元以推动出口；自9月底（即安倍上台的消息明确时）以来，日元兑美元汇率下跌16%,兑欧元下跌19%。

The complaints, however, are overdone. Rather than condemning the actions of America and Japan, the rest of the world should praise them—and the euro zone would do well to follow their example.

然而，各国似乎抱怨过度。他们不应一味指责美日的行为，反而应表示赞赏，欧元区国家最好应效仿才是。

Turning swords into printing presses

化印钞机为利剑

The war rhetoric implies that America and Japan are directly suppressing their currencies to boost exports and suppress imports. That would be a zero-sum game which could degenerate into protectionism and a collapse in trade. But this is not what they are doing. When central banks have lowered their short-term interest rate to near zero and thus exhausted their conventional monetary methods, they turn to unconventional means such as QE or convincing people that inflation will rise. Both actions should lower real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates. This may now be happening in Japan.

此番战争言论，言下之意是美日在直接压低本国货币以促进出口抑制进口。这就是一场零和博弈，

使保护主义盛行，贸易崩溃。但事实并非如此。美日央行已将短期利率调至接近零，用光了传统的货币政策工具，于是，他们只好使用非传统的货币政策，如QE或说服人们通货膨胀率会上升。二者都会降低真实（消除通胀因素）利率。这正是日本现在的情况。

The principal goal of this policy is to stimulate domestic spending and investment. As a by-product, lower real rates usually weaken the currency as well, and that in turn tends to depress imports. But if the policy is successful in reviving domestic demand, it will eventually lead to higher imports.

该政策的主要目的是刺激内需和投资。更低的利率常常也会附带压低货币，从而抑制进口。但如果该政策能重振内需，就能最终增加进口。

Aggressive monetary expansion in a big economy suffering from weak demand and subdued inflation is good for the rest of the world, not bad. The International Monetary Fund concluded that Americ a’s first rounds of monetary laxity boosted its trading partners’ output by as much as 0.3%. The dollar did weaken, but that became a motivation for Japan’s stepped-up assault on deflation. The combined monetary boost on opposite sides of the Pacific has been a powerful elixir for global investor confidence.

一个需求疲软、通胀率低的大国，大幅采取货币扩张政策对其他各国并非坏事，而是好事。国际货币基金组织（IMF）称，美国第一轮货币宽松使其贸易伙伴国出口增幅高达0.3%。美元的确贬值了，但这也促使日本加大力度遏制通胀紧缩。太平洋两岸的货币扩张成为提振全球投资者信心的灵丹妙药。

European officials, fearful that their countries’ exports are cau ght in the crossfire, have entertained loopy ideas such as directly managing the value of the euro. Instead, the euro zone should stop grumbling and start emulating Japan: the European Central Bank should ease monetary policy, if necessary through QE. This would both blunt the euro’s rise and combat recession in the zone’s periphery.

欧洲国家官员因害怕他们自己国家的出口卷入交火，曾有过诸如直接管制欧元汇率的糊涂想法。恰恰相反，欧元区应该停止抱怨，效仿日本。欧洲中央银行应该放松货币政策，必要时可启动QE。这既能防止欧元升值还能防止欧元区边缘经济体陷入衰退。

That option may not be available to emerging markets, such as Brazil, where inflation remains a problem. In their case, limited capital controls may be a sensible short-term defence against destabilising inflows of hot money.

新兴国家如巴西面临着通胀问题，可能无法效仿日本。对他们来说，限制性的资本管制可能在短期是明智之举，来抵御热钱涌入，防止市场紊乱。

Should Japan’s attack on t he yen move beyond rhetoric to actual intervention in the markets to drive its value down, then the rest of the world would be right to condemn it. Until that happens, other countries should avoid groundless fearmongering about currency wars. Finance ministers and central banks should be fighting stagnation, not each other.

倘若日本不仅只是嘴上说要压低日元，而是真的干预市场使日元贬值，那么其他各国谴责日本便理所当然。在此之前，其他国家不应空穴来风，散布有关货币战争的谣言。财政部长和央行应该致力于防止经济停滞，而不是各国之间起内讧。