第四讲进攻、防御和安全困境
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关 家 念进 进攻 战争进 优势 念进 加 果会减 可能 . 个 果会减 维 现状国 间 可图 可图.代价 , . 困境. 困境. ,战争对 赢
Second, because wars are expected to be both frequent and short, there will be incentives for high levels of arms, and quick and strong reaction to the other's increases in arms. Third, when wars are quick, states will have to recruit allies in advance. Fourth, if wars are frequent, statesmen's perceptual thresholds(观念 门槛) will be adjusted accordingly and they will be quick to perceive ambiguous(R? ) evidence as indicating that others are aggressive.
There is no way for the state to increase its security without menacing, or even attacking, the other. Even Bismarck, who once called preventive war "committing suicide from fear of death," said that "no government, if it regards war as inevitable even if it does not want it, would be so foolish as to leave to the enemy the choice of time and occasion and to wait for the moment which is most convenient for the enemy." 同时 攻击 国 加己 同时 胁 国 攻击 国. 预 战争称 " 惧 杀" 麦 说,"没 哪 战争但 个 己 战争但认为战争 可 时会 , 对开战时机 等待对敌 对开战时机 场 选择 给敌 ,等待对敌 时刻 来临. 来临." , 对可能 器 ,警 困境? 困境?
Second, with a given inventory( 录,清单) of forces, is it better to attack or to defend? Is there an incentive to strike first or to absorb the other's blow? These two aspects are often linked: If each dollar spent on offense can overcome each dollar spent on defense, and if both sides have the same defense budgets, then both are likely to build offensive forces and find it attractive to attack rather than to wait for the adversary to strike.
Robert Jervis
Offense, Defense, and the Security Dilemma
From "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma" from World Politics, Vol. 30, No.2 (January 1978), pp. 186-214
Two questions of the offense-defense balance can be separated. First, does the state have to spend more or less than one dollar on defensive forces to offset( ) each dollar spent by the other side on forces that could be used to attack? If the state has one dollar to spend on increasing its security, should it put it into offensive or defensive forces? 果 国 块钱可 加 己 ,该国该 它 进攻 还 ? 关 攻 对 两个问题可 区别开来. ,为 对 进攻 块钱, 国 须 块钱更多还 更 钱 ?
,根据 个既 军备 录,去进攻更 还 去 更 ? 抢 击 对 击 动机? 这两个 联系 起: 果 起: 进攻 块钱都能 块钱都能 块钱, 果双 同等 块钱,并 果双 务预 ,那么双 都 可能去建设进 设进攻 并认为进攻 等待敌 来袭更 可能去建设进攻 ,并认为进攻 等待敌 来袭更 . 其
These aspects affect the security dilemma in different ways. The first has its greatest impact on arms races. If the defense has the advantage, and if the status quo powers have reasonable subjective security requirements, they can probably avoid an arms race. The second aspect-whether it is better to attack or to defend-influences short-run(短期) stability. When the offense has the advantage, a state's reaction to international tension will increase the chances of war. 同 困境. 这两个 响 困境. 个 对军备竞赛 大. 优势, 求, 响 大. 果 优势, 维 现状国 观 求,它 军备竞赛. 们可能 军备竞赛. --去 短期稳 个 --去进攻更 还 去 更 -- 响短期稳 .当进 优势时, 加战争 可能. 攻 优势时, 国对国际紧张 势 应会 加战争 可能.
阅读资 :【 】乔 H.奎 奎 2008年 . 年 :《国际 系 进攻与 》,
Security dilemma
The central point of the security dilemma: an increase in one state's security decreases the security of others . Two crucial variables(变 ) are involved: whether defensive weapons and policies can be distinguished from offensive one's, and whether the defense or the offense has the advantage.
The security dilemma is at its most vicious state when commitments, strategy, or technology dictate that the only route to security lies through expansion. Status quo powers must then act like aggressors. Conversely, when the defense has the advantage, status-quo states can make themselves more secure without gravely endangering others. Indeed, if the defense has enough of an advantage and if the states are of roughly equal size, not only will the security dilemma cease to inhibit status-quo states from cooperating, but aggression will be next to( 近 ) impossible, thus rendering international anarchy relatively unimportant. 当义务 诺,战 技术决 径 扩张时, 困境 处 它 险恶 状态. 时,维 现状国 须 样 . ,当 优势时,维 现状国能够 己更 严 及 国. 实, 果 优势 够大, 各国 规 大 等, 仅 困境 会 维 现状国 , 将近 可能, 得 国际 状态 对 轻 .
OFFENSE-DEFENSE BALANCE(攻
对
)
When we say that the offense has the advantage, we simply mean that it is easier to destroy the other's army and take its territory than it is to defend one's own. When the defense has the advantage, it is easier to protect and to hold than it is to move forward, destroy, and take. 当 们说进攻 优势时, 们仅仅 国 军队, 夺 它 领 卫 己 更 . 当 优势时, 卫 坚 进, 夺 更 .
困境 国 加减损 困境 及两个关键变 : 器 区 开; 还 进攻 优势. 国 . 能 与进攻 器
When defensive weapons differ from offensive ones, it is possible for a state to make itself more secure without making others less secure. And when the defense has the advantage over the offense, a large increase in one state's security only slightly decreases the security of the others, and status-quo powers can all enjoy a high level of security and largely escape from the state of nature. 当 同时 并 当 减损 国 并 大 器 会 进攻 器时, 国 得 国更 可能 . 进攻 优势时, 国大 加强 ,维 现状国家可 高 度 摆脱 状态. 同 己更 会轻
OBJECTIVES
What is defense? What is offense? What influences do Technology and Geography have on offense or defense? Is a distinction between offense and defense possible?
Beliefs about the course of a war in which the offense has the advantage further deepen the security dilemma. There are several consequences that decrease the chance of cooperation among status-quo states. First, war will be profitable for the winner.源自文库The costs will be low and the benefits high.
Second, because wars are expected to be both frequent and short, there will be incentives for high levels of arms, and quick and strong reaction to the other's increases in arms. Third, when wars are quick, states will have to recruit allies in advance. Fourth, if wars are frequent, statesmen's perceptual thresholds(观念 门槛) will be adjusted accordingly and they will be quick to perceive ambiguous(R? ) evidence as indicating that others are aggressive.
There is no way for the state to increase its security without menacing, or even attacking, the other. Even Bismarck, who once called preventive war "committing suicide from fear of death," said that "no government, if it regards war as inevitable even if it does not want it, would be so foolish as to leave to the enemy the choice of time and occasion and to wait for the moment which is most convenient for the enemy." 同时 攻击 国 加己 同时 胁 国 攻击 国. 预 战争称 " 惧 杀" 麦 说,"没 哪 战争但 个 己 战争但认为战争 可 时会 , 对开战时机 等待对敌 对开战时机 场 选择 给敌 ,等待对敌 时刻 来临. 来临." , 对可能 器 ,警 困境? 困境?
Second, with a given inventory( 录,清单) of forces, is it better to attack or to defend? Is there an incentive to strike first or to absorb the other's blow? These two aspects are often linked: If each dollar spent on offense can overcome each dollar spent on defense, and if both sides have the same defense budgets, then both are likely to build offensive forces and find it attractive to attack rather than to wait for the adversary to strike.
Robert Jervis
Offense, Defense, and the Security Dilemma
From "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma" from World Politics, Vol. 30, No.2 (January 1978), pp. 186-214
Two questions of the offense-defense balance can be separated. First, does the state have to spend more or less than one dollar on defensive forces to offset( ) each dollar spent by the other side on forces that could be used to attack? If the state has one dollar to spend on increasing its security, should it put it into offensive or defensive forces? 果 国 块钱可 加 己 ,该国该 它 进攻 还 ? 关 攻 对 两个问题可 区别开来. ,为 对 进攻 块钱, 国 须 块钱更多还 更 钱 ?
,根据 个既 军备 录,去进攻更 还 去 更 ? 抢 击 对 击 动机? 这两个 联系 起: 果 起: 进攻 块钱都能 块钱都能 块钱, 果双 同等 块钱,并 果双 务预 ,那么双 都 可能去建设进 设进攻 并认为进攻 等待敌 来袭更 可能去建设进攻 ,并认为进攻 等待敌 来袭更 . 其
These aspects affect the security dilemma in different ways. The first has its greatest impact on arms races. If the defense has the advantage, and if the status quo powers have reasonable subjective security requirements, they can probably avoid an arms race. The second aspect-whether it is better to attack or to defend-influences short-run(短期) stability. When the offense has the advantage, a state's reaction to international tension will increase the chances of war. 同 困境. 这两个 响 困境. 个 对军备竞赛 大. 优势, 求, 响 大. 果 优势, 维 现状国 观 求,它 军备竞赛. 们可能 军备竞赛. --去 短期稳 个 --去进攻更 还 去 更 -- 响短期稳 .当进 优势时, 加战争 可能. 攻 优势时, 国对国际紧张 势 应会 加战争 可能.
阅读资 :【 】乔 H.奎 奎 2008年 . 年 :《国际 系 进攻与 》,
Security dilemma
The central point of the security dilemma: an increase in one state's security decreases the security of others . Two crucial variables(变 ) are involved: whether defensive weapons and policies can be distinguished from offensive one's, and whether the defense or the offense has the advantage.
The security dilemma is at its most vicious state when commitments, strategy, or technology dictate that the only route to security lies through expansion. Status quo powers must then act like aggressors. Conversely, when the defense has the advantage, status-quo states can make themselves more secure without gravely endangering others. Indeed, if the defense has enough of an advantage and if the states are of roughly equal size, not only will the security dilemma cease to inhibit status-quo states from cooperating, but aggression will be next to( 近 ) impossible, thus rendering international anarchy relatively unimportant. 当义务 诺,战 技术决 径 扩张时, 困境 处 它 险恶 状态. 时,维 现状国 须 样 . ,当 优势时,维 现状国能够 己更 严 及 国. 实, 果 优势 够大, 各国 规 大 等, 仅 困境 会 维 现状国 , 将近 可能, 得 国际 状态 对 轻 .
OFFENSE-DEFENSE BALANCE(攻
对
)
When we say that the offense has the advantage, we simply mean that it is easier to destroy the other's army and take its territory than it is to defend one's own. When the defense has the advantage, it is easier to protect and to hold than it is to move forward, destroy, and take. 当 们说进攻 优势时, 们仅仅 国 军队, 夺 它 领 卫 己 更 . 当 优势时, 卫 坚 进, 夺 更 .
困境 国 加减损 困境 及两个关键变 : 器 区 开; 还 进攻 优势. 国 . 能 与进攻 器
When defensive weapons differ from offensive ones, it is possible for a state to make itself more secure without making others less secure. And when the defense has the advantage over the offense, a large increase in one state's security only slightly decreases the security of the others, and status-quo powers can all enjoy a high level of security and largely escape from the state of nature. 当 同时 并 当 减损 国 并 大 器 会 进攻 器时, 国 得 国更 可能 . 进攻 优势时, 国大 加强 ,维 现状国家可 高 度 摆脱 状态. 同 己更 会轻
OBJECTIVES
What is defense? What is offense? What influences do Technology and Geography have on offense or defense? Is a distinction between offense and defense possible?
Beliefs about the course of a war in which the offense has the advantage further deepen the security dilemma. There are several consequences that decrease the chance of cooperation among status-quo states. First, war will be profitable for the winner.源自文库The costs will be low and the benefits high.