韩国债券市场分析

- In January corporate bond market, long-term institutional investors’ carry type buy-orders led mainly on mid-long term high graded corporate bonds to rally in both primary/secondary markets. There were still differentiated phenomenon of high graded and low graded corporate bonds existed by highlighted credit risk.
January/ February 2010
Contents Market Overview
▶ Highlights and Outlooks
- Intense reaction by further direction of the monetary policy, after February MPC meeting, KTB market showed rally condition by the expectations on monetary easing policy leading this year’s lowest.
preferred non-call MBS
that has low credit risk
and no call risk, and [
individual
investors
preferred PF ABS that
F
has comparably high i
interest rate merit.
- In January corporate bond market, institutional investors resumed their investment leading recovery of buy-orders in mid-long term bond. In primary market, rally conditions were shown by excessive competition between securities on the takeover of corporate bonds and increasing long-term investment institutions’ carry type buy-orders. However, short-term bonds showed in contrast by MMF capital outflow and increased profit taking sell orders on corporate bond worsening supply and demand conditions. After February, differentiated phenomenon of high graded bonds continued by credit risk standing out and corporate bond spread has been contracted mainly on more than 3 years remaining mid-long term bonds.
lowest.
Bond yields dropped by prolong expectations of monetary easing policy
[Figure 2] Yield Curve
(%) 5.60 5.20 4.80 4.40 4.00 3.60 3.20 2.80 2.40 2.00
KBP Monthly Fixed Income Markets (January/February 2010)
2
5-year KTB yield decreased by 10bp to 4.82% on a monthly basis in late January.
In February bond market, lessen concerns on raising the interest rate led bullish conditions. December CPI rose to 3.0% in 9 months resulted bond yield to start increasing, but stabilizing Australia central bank policy rate and government participant stating the exit strategy would be too early at this point leading the bond market to rally. Concerns on European nations’ budget deficit has not been disappeared and flight to quality led rally in the bond market, however, rumors on increasing cash reserve ratio before the MPC meeting proliferated wariness. However, policy rate has been unchanged to 2.00% in the MPC February meeting, while the governor of Bank of Korea (hereinafter, BOK) showed easing stance as the expectations on maintaining the easing policy increased leading the bond yield plunge. 3-year KTB yield plunged by 17bp to 4.10% to 1-year low and 5-year KTB yield decreased by 10bp to 4.72% on a monthly basis on February 18th.
2010-02-18
2010-01-20
2009-12-17
3M 6M 9M 1y 1.5y 2y 2.5y 3y 4y 5y 7y 10y 20y
* Source : KBP
In the second half of January bond market, after yield drop in the beginning of the month adjustment atmosphere was set leading limited fluctuation. The president of the U.S., Barrack Obama’s financial regulation statement led the stock market to plunge and led flight to quality help rally in the bond market. The bond market rallied due to the interpretation of the economic recovery being slow down by 4th quarter national GDP recording 6.0% (yoy) lowering than anticipated which was announced on the 26th. Meanwhile, economy awareness has lessened in US FOMC meeting and only one committee objected stabilizing policy rate showing there will be movement toward increasing policy rate faster than expected leading increase in bond yield. In January 29th, domestic industrial production recorded 33.9% (yoy) maintaining uptrend, but decreased domestic leading indicator exchanged no effect on the market. Moreover, credit issues of the southern European countries led global stock market to plunge, leading bullish bond market. 3-year KTB yield plunged by 14bp to 4.27%, and
1 ]
KBP Monthly Fixed Income Markets (January/February 2010)
1
[Figure 1] Treasury Bond Yield and Volume Trend
(%) 4.8
TB Volume (R)
TB3Y Yield (L)
4.6
4.4
4.2
further direction of the
monetary policy, after
February MPC meeting,
KTB market showed rally
condition by the
expectations
on
monetary easing policy
leading this year’s
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4 09- 09
09-10
09- 11
09- 12
10- 01
(tril. won) 28.0 24.0 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0
10- 02
Shin Jin-Ho (399-3483) jhshin@koreabp.com
- Intense reaction by
g
u
r
e
- Bond yield continued decreasing after economy recovery slowed down on economic indicators such as 4th quarter GDP, news on opposition of stabilizing policy rate by one of U.S. FOMC committee leading yield on turnaround to rally condition and bond market showed sensitively reacting by the direction of monetary policy. After Monetary Policy Committee (hereinafter, MPC) in February, there has been a strong expectations on maintaining monetary appeasement policy leading the bond yield to plunge to this year’s lowest.
- In January, high volatility
of benchmark yields
contracted not only in the
secondary market of
ABS, but also in the
primary
market.
Institutional investors
- In January ABS market, primary and secondary market both have contracted sharply. For major corporations, improvement of issue terms on corporate bonds has increased financing merit through corporate bond than ABS contracted the size of the issuance. Moreover, high volatility of benchmark yield led contraction of ABS investment demand, so January ABS issue size showed huge drop Байду номын сангаасrom the previous month.