真正的世界末日-2012各国债务危机
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Time Required to Restore 5% Unemployment
Wyoming Economic Outlook*
*Caveat Emptor!
Unemployment situation is improving – September 2011 rate was 5.8%:
WY Unemployment Rate, Jan 2001Jan 2011
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Wyoming Economic Outlook*
*Caveat Emptor!
Expect a stabilization of the Wyoming unemployment rate near 5.5-5.8%. Without growth in the rest of the U.S., our energy boom will be solid but not accelerating.
* statistical significance
Financial Crises and their Recessions
Real housing prices are 10-15% lower during the entire post-crisis decade compared to their prices just before the crisis.
Energy and commodity prices have stabilized and their outlooks have improved. This bodes well for Wyoming. However, this could change if Euro-Mess continues unabated.
Key domestic markets and global trade partners have been slightly less exposed to financial volatility and continued downturn in the US and abroad.
Wyoming Economic Outlook*
% Total Job Loss in Recent Recessions
0 1.00% % Change in Employment Relative to Peak 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% 12 24 36 48 60
-7.00%
2007
2008
2009
2ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu10
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Commodity Outlook
From Economist Intelligence Unit Coal ($/ton)
140 120
100
80 Coal ($/ton)
60
40
20
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
US Economic Outlook*
*Caveat Emptor!
We are still recovering from a deep and long economic trauma.
Research shows that recessions caused or exacerbated by financial crises induce such an economic shock that they significantly alter the structural characteristics of the economy The recessions that ensue are significantly deeper and longer than those not caused by financial crises. Note that on average, your “run of the mill” non-crisis-induced recession lasts around one year.
Commodity Outlook – Good news for State Revenue Forecasts
From Economist Intelligence Unit Oil (Brent) ($/bbl)
120
100
80
60 Oil (Brent) ($/bbl) 40
20
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Commodity Outlook
From Economist Intelligence Unit Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
10 9 8 7 6 5 Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 4 3 2 1 0
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate and U-6 Rate
Unemployment Rate
Jan-06
May-06 Sep-06
U-6
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10
It’s the End of the World as We Know It
And I Feel Fine
Economics-Wyoming and Beyond: Recent Past, Present, Near Future
Dr. Anne M. Alexander Director, International Programs University of Wyoming
on average, median growth is 1% lower post vs. pre-crisis.
* statistical significance
Real GDP
Real GDP
% Unemployed or Underemployed 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 2 4 6 8
Financial Crises and their Recessions
Domestic credit-to-GDP ratio (leverage) rises about 38% in the decade preceding a crisis, and external indebtedness rises immensely. In the decade after a crisis, leverage falls by about the same amount, but usually takes about 7 years to fall back (most likely due to unwillingness/inability to write down nonperforming debts.)
Months from Peak Jun-90 Feb-01 Dec-07
Recovery Estimates
Time Required to Restore 5% Unemployment
25
20 Millions of jobs
15
10
5
0
Jobs Shortfall
Recovery Estimates
Financial Crises and their Recessions
Unemployment rates are significantly higher* in the decade after crises compared to the decade before.
In 10 of the 15 post-World War II crises, unemployment rates never returned to their precrisis levels by the end of 10 years post-crisis.
The Telegraph
Wyoming Economic Outlook*
*Caveat Emptor!
Wyoming’s economic structure ring-fences us from much of the continued residual impacts of the 2007 recession and developing financial volatility in Europe.
Sep-10
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11
Unemployment
But how does this time compare?
% Total Job Loss in Recent Recessions
0 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% % Change in Employment Relative to Peak -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% 12 24 36 48 60
0 1.00% % Change in Employment Relative to Peak 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% 12 24 36 48 60
-7.00%
Months from Peak Jun-90 Feb-01
How does this time compare?
*Caveat Emptor!
Poverty rate
10.2%, 6th lowest in U.S. according to Census Bureau (after NH, NJ, MD, AK, CT)
Food stamp usage
According to Department of Agriculture, lowest rate in the country (6%), fell 4.5% from last year
Financial Crises and their Recessions
Economic growth (real per-capita GDP) is significantly lower* during the entire post-crisis decade than during the pre-crisis decade
Thus we may have hit a spot where improvement comes more slowly, but on the positive side, we are unlikely to worsen.
However, if EU enters into recession (more on this soon) or there is continued financial chaos in the Eurozone, there could be significant indirect impacts on Wyoming.
-2.00%
-2.50% -3.00% -3.50% -4.00% -4.50% -5.00% -5.50% -6.00% -6.50%
-7.00%
Months from Peak Jun-90
How does this time compare?
% Total Job Loss in Recent Recessions
Wyoming Economic Outlook*
*Caveat Emptor!
Unemployment situation is improving – September 2011 rate was 5.8%:
WY Unemployment Rate, Jan 2001Jan 2011
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Wyoming Economic Outlook*
*Caveat Emptor!
Expect a stabilization of the Wyoming unemployment rate near 5.5-5.8%. Without growth in the rest of the U.S., our energy boom will be solid but not accelerating.
* statistical significance
Financial Crises and their Recessions
Real housing prices are 10-15% lower during the entire post-crisis decade compared to their prices just before the crisis.
Energy and commodity prices have stabilized and their outlooks have improved. This bodes well for Wyoming. However, this could change if Euro-Mess continues unabated.
Key domestic markets and global trade partners have been slightly less exposed to financial volatility and continued downturn in the US and abroad.
Wyoming Economic Outlook*
% Total Job Loss in Recent Recessions
0 1.00% % Change in Employment Relative to Peak 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% 12 24 36 48 60
-7.00%
2007
2008
2009
2ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu10
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Commodity Outlook
From Economist Intelligence Unit Coal ($/ton)
140 120
100
80 Coal ($/ton)
60
40
20
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
US Economic Outlook*
*Caveat Emptor!
We are still recovering from a deep and long economic trauma.
Research shows that recessions caused or exacerbated by financial crises induce such an economic shock that they significantly alter the structural characteristics of the economy The recessions that ensue are significantly deeper and longer than those not caused by financial crises. Note that on average, your “run of the mill” non-crisis-induced recession lasts around one year.
Commodity Outlook – Good news for State Revenue Forecasts
From Economist Intelligence Unit Oil (Brent) ($/bbl)
120
100
80
60 Oil (Brent) ($/bbl) 40
20
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Commodity Outlook
From Economist Intelligence Unit Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
10 9 8 7 6 5 Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 4 3 2 1 0
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate and U-6 Rate
Unemployment Rate
Jan-06
May-06 Sep-06
U-6
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10
It’s the End of the World as We Know It
And I Feel Fine
Economics-Wyoming and Beyond: Recent Past, Present, Near Future
Dr. Anne M. Alexander Director, International Programs University of Wyoming
on average, median growth is 1% lower post vs. pre-crisis.
* statistical significance
Real GDP
Real GDP
% Unemployed or Underemployed 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 2 4 6 8
Financial Crises and their Recessions
Domestic credit-to-GDP ratio (leverage) rises about 38% in the decade preceding a crisis, and external indebtedness rises immensely. In the decade after a crisis, leverage falls by about the same amount, but usually takes about 7 years to fall back (most likely due to unwillingness/inability to write down nonperforming debts.)
Months from Peak Jun-90 Feb-01 Dec-07
Recovery Estimates
Time Required to Restore 5% Unemployment
25
20 Millions of jobs
15
10
5
0
Jobs Shortfall
Recovery Estimates
Financial Crises and their Recessions
Unemployment rates are significantly higher* in the decade after crises compared to the decade before.
In 10 of the 15 post-World War II crises, unemployment rates never returned to their precrisis levels by the end of 10 years post-crisis.
The Telegraph
Wyoming Economic Outlook*
*Caveat Emptor!
Wyoming’s economic structure ring-fences us from much of the continued residual impacts of the 2007 recession and developing financial volatility in Europe.
Sep-10
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11
Unemployment
But how does this time compare?
% Total Job Loss in Recent Recessions
0 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% % Change in Employment Relative to Peak -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% 12 24 36 48 60
0 1.00% % Change in Employment Relative to Peak 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% 12 24 36 48 60
-7.00%
Months from Peak Jun-90 Feb-01
How does this time compare?
*Caveat Emptor!
Poverty rate
10.2%, 6th lowest in U.S. according to Census Bureau (after NH, NJ, MD, AK, CT)
Food stamp usage
According to Department of Agriculture, lowest rate in the country (6%), fell 4.5% from last year
Financial Crises and their Recessions
Economic growth (real per-capita GDP) is significantly lower* during the entire post-crisis decade than during the pre-crisis decade
Thus we may have hit a spot where improvement comes more slowly, but on the positive side, we are unlikely to worsen.
However, if EU enters into recession (more on this soon) or there is continued financial chaos in the Eurozone, there could be significant indirect impacts on Wyoming.
-2.00%
-2.50% -3.00% -3.50% -4.00% -4.50% -5.00% -5.50% -6.00% -6.50%
-7.00%
Months from Peak Jun-90
How does this time compare?
% Total Job Loss in Recent Recessions