毕设论文摘要

摘要
短期负荷预测是电力系统负荷预测的重要组成部分，高精度的负荷预测对于节约电网运营成本，提高电能质量，保障系统安全稳定具有重要的现实意义。

本文论述了电力负荷预测与分类、负荷预测的基本过程，分析了短期负荷的特性，并对其影响因素做了比较详细的分析，考虑到外部影响因素众多。

此外，本文着重论述了电力系统短期负荷预测的基本要求和主要方法。

在对短期负荷的预测过程中，本文基于相似日的思想，以正常日点对点倍比法为模型，利用MA TLAB编程语言和可视化界面，设计了一个简单的负荷预测系统，对某地区某日24点的负荷值进行预测，并得出相应的负荷曲线。

该系统满足短期负荷预测的误差要求，可用性较强，为进一步提高短期负荷预测的精度奠定了基础。

关键词电力系统，短期负荷预测，相似日，正常日负荷
Abstract
Short term load forecasting is an important part of power system load forecasting, load forecasting of high precision for saving power grid operating costs, improve the quality of electric energy, has important practical significance to guarantee system security and stability. This paper discusses the basic process of power load forecasting and classification, load forecasting, analyzes the characteristics of the short-term load, and make a detailed analysis on its influence factors, taking into account the external influence factors. In addition, this paper expounds the basic requirements of short term load forecasting of power system and the main method.
In the process of short term load forecasting in this paper based on the idea of similar day, in a normal day point-to-point times ratio method as a model, using the MATLAB programming language and visualization interface, designed a simple load forecasting system, the load at 24h and area was predicted, and the corresponding load curve. The system meets the error requirement in short term load forecasting, and the usability is strong, which will lay a foundation for the further improve the accuracy of
short-term load forecasting.
Key W ords Electric power system, Short-term load, Similar day, Normal day load。