叙利亚危机[英文]

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Background on Syria
Syria Overview
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Ethnic Distribution in Syria
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Syria Overview
HALAB IDLIB
AR RAQQAH
AL HASAKAH
TARTUS
HAMA
AL LADHIOIYAH
HIMS
DAYR AZ ZAWR
regime
• The Syrian government has air defences which prevent easy
airspace control by the West
• The Syrian government has the military power to crush a
• The UN Human Rights Council said it had
documented human rights abuses committed by the FSA. The FSA said field commanders made independent decisions
Assad regime
• The FSA claims to have 15,000 fighters, but
may have less
• Analysts say that the FSA is no longer only
deserters, but also an umbrella group for civilians who have taken up arms
• As of this week there are about 100
unarmed observers in Syria
• Violence continues despite the presence of
observers.
• Even a convoy including observers
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Free Syrian Army
• The Free Syrian Army (FSA) was formed in
August 2011 by army deserters based in Turkey. The FSA says it wants to:
• Topple the regime • Protect the country's resources • Stand up to the Syrian army which supports the
3. All parties to ensure provision of humanitarian assistance to all areas affected by the fighting, and implement a daily two-hour humanitarian pause
• Primarily a geographically east-west conflict • Primarily a conflict between the peoples of the east (Cyrenica)
and the west (Tripoli and the Qadhadhfa)
willing to use lethal force against its people. Mubarak demonstrated relative restraint
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Opposition Players in Syria
Syrian National Council (SNC)
• The Syrian National Council (SNC), founded in
• If the Assad regime falls, it is not clear
who/what will fill the power vacuum. With Egypt, there was the army.
• The Assad regime has demonstrated that it is
• In March 2012, the SNC created a military
bureau to co-ordinate armed anti-government groups in Syria. The FSA said it would not cooperate with the new bureau.
Agenda
• Background on Syria and Maps • Opposition Players in Syria • Recent game-changing
Thresholds
• The Perspective of the Assad
Regime
• Likely outcomes ahead for Syria
DAR’A
DIMASHQ AS SUWAYDA
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Syria Overview
• ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱa
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How is the situation in Syria different from
that in Libya
• Syria’s conflict has important implications for the entire
• The West was comfortable with the ideology of the
opposition Libya. Not so in Syria.
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How is the situation in Syria different from that in Egypt
• Opposition to Assad grew gradually, and had
Syria: Crisis and Competing Interests
Updated, May 9, 2012
Module 2
Info drawn largely from International Crisis Group’s Syria’s Phase of Radicalisation, April 10, 2012, and BBC’s Syria Crisis
different various origins. Massive opposition to Mubarak was immediate, universal, and overwhelming.
• Syria’s conflict has sectarian overtones which
have implications across the region. The struggle to depose Mubarak was without a sectarian angle
6. Authorities to respect freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefully
• Syria Observer Mission
• UN Security Council resolution 2042
approves a team of up to 300 unarmed observers
Oct. 2011, is a coalition of seven groups outside of Syria. It seeks to serve as a single point of contact for the international community. The SNC wants to :
4. Authorities to intensify the pace and scale of release of arbitrarily detained persons
5. Authorities to ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists
• Wants to dialogue with the regime, conditional
on military withdrawal from the streets
• No foreign intervention that would involve
military measures, such as a no-fly zone
escorted by the Syrian Army was attacked on May 9th.
region (Libya’s less so)
• The balance of regional power would significantly shift with a fall
of the Assad regime
• Other regional players have an interest in sustaining the Assad
• The SNC is dominated by Syria's majority
Sunnis, and has not attracted much support from Christians or Alawites
• The SNC is not yet as credible as Libya's NTC,
but int’l community still interested
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National Co-ordination Council (NCC)
• National Co-ordination Committee (NCC),
formed inside Syria in September, 2012, is made up of 13 left-leaning political parties, three Kurdish political parties, and independents. The NNC wants :
• The FSA and SNC have found it difficult to
work together
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Areas of Fighting
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Current Status of Situation in Syria
• The UN’s (Annan’s) six-point peace
plan
1. Syrian-led political process to address the aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people
2. UN-supervised cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties to protect civilians
• Economic sanctions and other diplomatic
measures to increase pressure on Assad
• The NCC has also been reluctant to affiliate
itself with the SNC and has challenged the SNC’s primacy
• Overthrow the regime using all legal means • Affirm national unity, reject ethnic strife • Protect national independence and sovereignty,
and reject foreign military intervention
poorly armed opposition
• There are no easy or obvious arms supply routes to the
opposition
• The Libyan civil war was largely a two dimensional conflict