人民币汇率形成机制及其制度选择研究

目录

绪论 (4)

一、人民币汇率机制改革背景 (5)

（一）国内背景 (5)

（二）国际背景 (5)

二、影响人民币汇率变动的因素 (7)

（一）国际收支差额 (7)

（二）通货膨胀率的差异或相对通货膨胀率 (7)

（三）经济增长率差异 (8)

（四）利率差异 (10)

（五）政府干预 (11)

（六）投机活动和市场心理预期 (11)

三、当前人民币汇率机制下的问题所在 (13)

（一）当前人民币汇率机制的市场化问题 (13)

（二）当前人民币汇率机制增加了套利的机会 (13)

（三）当前人民币汇率机制的形成对外部均衡产生的不利影响 (13)

（四）当前人民币汇率机制的形成对外汇市场服务职能的影响 (14)

四、进一步完善人民币汇率机制的制度选择 (15)

（一）确实落实一篮子货币参考体系 (15)

（二）推进有管理的浮动汇率制度 (15)

（三）积极配合货币和经济结构改革的综合手段 (16)

（四）实行双向浮动汇率制度 (16)

（五）积极处理好三个市场的内在关系 (16)

（六）推进结售环节的市场化建设 (17)

结论 (18)

参考文献 (19)

致谢 (21)

近年来，随着经济全球化的加剧，美国的次贷危机、欧洲的欧债危机和东南亚金融危机的出现。人民币升值、经济增长缓慢、通货膨胀、物价上涨等经济术语一度升温，成为我国人民议论的热点。为什么它们会同时出现，它们之间又有着什么必然联系，人民币汇率在其中又扮演着什么角色。在这些现象面前，我国的经济体制又会发生什么样的改变，人民币汇率变革又该何去何从。本文首先对汇率的定义及种类做简单的认识之后，又对人民币汇率变动的主要因素进行深度分析，得出人民汇率在整个经济之中所占的角色。再从我国建国之后人民币制度的演变进行简要的分析，从而深入了解我国现在人民币汇率制度的一些特点和问题。最终得出人民币汇率对我国经济运行的重要性，再结合当今我国所处的国际环境和国内环境的形式，把握十八届三中全会提出的经济体制改革的方针政策。对完善人民币汇率形成机制的制度选择做一些政策上的建议。

关键词：人民币汇率通货膨胀经济增长国际收支

In recent years, with the intensification of economic globalization, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the European debt crisis and the emergence of the southeast Asian financial crisis. The appreciation of the Renminbi, slow growth, inflation, rising prices and other economic terms once to heat up, is becoming a hot spot of the Chinese people talk. Why would they appear at the same time, again have what is a connection between them, the RMB exchange rate and what is the role in it. In front of these phenomena, the economic system of our country and what kind of change will happen, the RMB exchange rate changes and the future .In this paper, first of all, the definition and categories of exchange rate to do a simple understanding, and in-depth analysis of the main factors of RMB exchange rate changes, it is concluded that the exchange rate in the economy as a whole accounts for a role. And out of China after the founding of the made a brief analysis of the evolution of the system, so as to have a thorough understanding of the RMB exchange rate system in our country some characteristics and problems .Finally it is concluded that the importance of the RMB exchange rate on China's economic operation, combining the current international environment and domestic environment in our country, in the form of master 18 proposed by the third plenary session of the economic system reform policies and regulations. To perfect the system of the RMB exchange rate regime choice made some policy Suggestions.

Keywords :The yuan's exchange rate inflation Economic growth The balance of payments