碳排放外文翻译文献

碳排放外文翻译文献
(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)
国际贸易对中国碳排放的影响：
一份具有经验性的分析
摘要：国际贸易是一个国家碳排放量重要的影响因素，自2002年加入世贸组织，中国对外贸易的快速发展对碳排放的影响越来越显著。

通过分析2002年至2007年间可投入产出表和能源消耗的数据分析，中国对外贸易的影响体现在贸易中碳排放量的变化。

结果表明，在中国国际贸易隐含碳排放的越来越多的显著出口行为。

从2002年到2007年，净出口的排放量和国内出口排放的国内排放量的比例从18.32％提高到29.79％和23.97的％至34.76％之间。

此外，加工贸易
在2002年和2007年分别，这是进口然后再出口的排放量分别产生了约22.10％，总进口的排放量32.29％。

虽然，大多数行业的表现在进口和出口的排放增长趋势，电气机械和通信电子设备，化工，纺织行业仍然是最大的排放出口，净出口的排放量，其中也最大。

对于中国和其他发展中国家的技术进步可能是最有利的和可接受的方式来减少碳排放量在目前的阶段。

在减排的未来谈判，它包括占经济总量的排放时，体现在国际贸易中的碳排放量会比较公平合理。

关键词：投入产出分析;碳排放量;国际贸易;中国
介绍
全球气候变暖已被认为是一个不争的事实。

其主要原因为全球气候系统的变暖是由于大气中温室气体浓度的不断增加，人类活动（IPCC，2007年）的结果。

为了避免对人类社会的全球变暖可能造成的负面影响，一系列措施已经采取了减少全球温室气体排放，以减缓全球变暖。

然而，围绕CO2减排和未来的碳排放权的分配方式，游戏中扮演着不同的利益群体。

随着全球化的发展，对环境的国际贸易的影响越来越显著，包括地理搬迁碳排放的潜在影响。

许多研究人员估计体现在国际贸易中对某些
国家以及世界经济（威科夫和鲁普，1994年的碳排放量;谢弗和莱亚尔德萨，1996年，马查多等人，2001年; Munksgaard的Peder和森，2001年;艾哈迈德和威科夫，2003;桑切斯- Chóliz和杜阿尔特，2004; Peters和赫卫区，2006年，2008年;Mäenpää等，2007;阿克曼等，2007）。

一般的结论是，在更加开放的经济，大外贸的影响，对一个国家的碳排放量。

此外，所有这些研究已经指出，进口与出口贸易不能忽视一个相对开放的经济体;否则，能源和碳排放数字可能被严重扭曲这个经济（马查多等，2001）。

在总量上，中国的贸易盈余的价值从30.43十亿美元，在2002年扩大到261.83十亿美元，在2007年（国家统计局，2008）。

中国对外贸易的快速增长将会对中国的碳排放显著的效果。

作为碳排放量最高的国家之一，中国正面临着减排的压力越来越大。

不过，中国也是一个大国的国际贸易，中国经济的快速发展导致了外贸稳定增长。

从1997年到2002年，中国的进口总额和出口值增长了14.35％的平均年增长率。

自加入世界贸易组织，中国的贸易的年均增长率跃升至28.64％，从2002年到2007年与2002年相比出口值，它在2007年增加了2.7倍，达到1217.78十亿美元。

而进口额也猛增至955.95十亿美元在2007年，比2002年的进口额高出2.2倍。

在总量上，中国的贸易盈余的价值从30.43十亿美元，在2002年扩大到261.83十亿美元，在2007年（国家统计局，2008）。

中国对外贸易的快速增长将会对中国的碳排放有着显著的效果。

然而，在能源使用和碳排放中国国际贸易的影响进行定量评价最近才开始。

IEA（2007年）的估计显示，体现在中国的国内生产出口能源相关的二氧化碳排放量占总排放量的34％，2004年如果使用的是从中国进口的商品国家的加权平均碳强度，的估计中国的净出口EM-浓郁CO2可能是总排放量的17％以上，2004年（莱文，2008年）。

采用单区域投入产出模型，潘等人（2008）估计，在2002年其生产的排放量能源和排放分别占中国的净出口一次能源消费量的16％和19％，在2002年应用环境的投入产出分析，中国报告的产量排放量网前移植排放到美国就占约5％，韦伯等人（2008年），ESTI交配生产从1987年到2005年在中国二氧化碳的排放量出口。

2005年，大约三分之一的中国排放是由于生产出口，而且这一比例已经从12％上升在1987年到2002年的21％;在发达国家，消费是推动这一趋势。

伟等人的估计（2009年a）也发现，存在于中国经济在2002年的排放量体现了显著出口行为;此外，后来出口（EMIS-所起到的加工贸易）是进口总量排放量20％以上。

此外，使用多区域投入产出模型，Peters 和赫卫（2008）也发现，出口排放为代表的中国国内排放量的24.4％，2001年进口的排放量的比例仅为6.6％。

阿特金森等人的类似的研究（2009年）也显示，中国是国际贸易中的碳排放量的净出口国。

近年来，使用基于物理进入方案的生态投入产出MOD-鹅岭，陈和陈（2010）估计，2007年中国出口的二氧化碳排放量和总能量分别在总排放量的32.31％和33.65％。

美国和欧洲国家都是中国出口的碳排放的主要进口国。

用经济投入产出生命周期评估软件，瑞和哈里斯（2006）发现，在1997-2003年约7％的中国出口到美国的二氧化碳排放量的14％是生产商品，;美国的二氧化碳排放量将在3％-6％，如果增加从中国进口的货物已经生产在美国。

AP-行走类似的方法，李休伊特发现英国和中国之间的双边贸易（2008）产生的二氧化碳排放量约4％，2004年中国的二氧化碳排放量分别为供英国市场生产商品和英国贸易减少了大约11％。

韦伯等人的估计（2008年）也发现，近期中国出口排放的大部分去了发达国家，大约27％的美国，19％的欧盟27国，14％的剩余附件B 国家，主要是日本，澳大利亚和新新西兰。

近日，徐等人（2009）研究了能源消耗和废气排放对环境的影响，2002至2007年使用环保投入产出分析和调整双边的贸易数据体现在东（从中国到美国）贸易。

张（2009）的研究也得到了类似的结果，能源和CO2分别约占中国的能源消费量的12％和17％，中国的二氧化碳排放量的8％和12％。

虽然中国国际贸易对碳排放是一项有意义的研究，进一步的相关研究是必要的，因为中国对外贸易的快速发展，特别是加工贸易的发展。

据统计（国家统计局，2008），自1996年以来加工贸易的出口份额一直超过出口总额的50％，2002年和2007年所占份额最多时分别达到55.26％和50.71％，这将是加工贸易和一般贸易对中国的碳排放影响的必要区分。

由于中国投入产出表只有5年，我们选择了2002年（加入世贸组织）到2007年（最新一期），中国的国际贸易投入产出表对碳排放的影响随着本文最后的要求观点的影响而变化。

此外，我们区分国产加工贸易和进口投入在生产流程的评估（进口排放和再出口），这将利于我们进一步了解国际贸易对排放量状况的影响。

在这项研究中，我们试图回答三个问题：1）作为一个大国的外贸，什么是由于进出口贸易在中国的外国地区所产生的净排放量？2）中国从2002年到2007年，国际贸易怎么对碳排放造成影响？3）从2002年到2007年哪些部门是中国进出口贸易的主要排放行业以及他们的角色？
讨论
碳排放量计算的不确定性
在计算中国贸易中的排放时体现了一定的不确定性。

其一是投入产出分析本身有很多固有的不确定性（在Lenzen，2001年更多的讨论）。

基于对中国单一区域的投入产出表，它可以让我们得到体现在中国出口的排放量相对准确的评估，但估计出口到中国的商品和服务的排放量时，该错误可能会更显著（Lenzen，2001; Lenzen等人，2004）。

另外一个重要的不确定因素是计算来自不同地区，这可能低估体现在进口的制成品生产国与第三产业比重较大，第二产业比重较小的排放
量的进口碳强度因子的方法。

此外，为了获得从原始的进出口表的进口使用基质，亲等级导入柱的方法也将不可避免地导致某些错误。

目前，对数据可用性的原因，我们无法完全量化我们的计算结果的精度，但初步估计表明，从研究使用更精确的数据结果不会显着改变这一分析得到的结论。

这些限制将通过使用多区域的进出口表和外区的更准确的行业碳强度和扇区间的生产过程中，在未来的详细分析的改进。

了解国际贸易对中国碳排放的影响
从2002年到2007年，外贸对中国碳排放的影响程度已经大幅扩大。

它可能在很大程度上关系到两个因素。

首先是煤炭为主的能源消费结构，第二产业为主的生产结构，将保持国内的能源强度高。

2002年，煤炭消费交流才算是能源消费总量的66.3％。

而中国的国内生产总值（GDP）的44.8％，是由于第二产业在2002年（国家统计局，2008）。

在2007年，相关股价上涨分别高达69.5％和48.6％，这将导致体现在单元出口是高于体现在单位进口的碳排放量。

第二个因素，这可能是更重要的因素，是出口贸易的快速增长。

从2002年到2007年，中国的出口增长了246.80％，而进口增长了199.97％（国家统计局，2008）。

出口增速明显高于进口，这可能会导致净出口的排放量急剧
增加的更快。

使用输入输出结构的去组成分析，刘等人。

（2010）也发现，出口和能源密集型产品出口增长的扩张总量趋于扩大体现在1992年至2005年出口能源，但能源效率的提高和变化在一次能源消费结构可抵消部分影响对出口能源实施上述驱动力。

虽然，以煤炭为主的能源消费结构，第二产业为主的生产结构产生的碳排放量的增加，更重要的作用，它可能很难对中国调整因为其禀赋特征，并在很短的时间的结构特点及其目前的经济发展阶段。

此外，中国的对外贸易，包括贸易顺差扩大的增长，主要是在市场经济体制最大限度地发挥比较优势的结果。

该开发-包换中国经济不仅提供了世界许多商品和服务的，他们通过中国的出口需要休息的国家，同时也降低了全国生产-化在发达国家的相对成本。

中国对外贸易一直扮演着世界经济发展的重要作用，由于其巨大的市场，稳定的政府体系和丰富的廉价劳动力。

因此，可以认为，在目前阶段，对于中国的更好的方法，以减少国际贸易对国家或全球二氧化碳排放量的影响应该是改善其生产技术，降低了能源消耗强度就整体而言，不仅控制中国对外贸易的数额。

此外，该进口货物从中国应该采取对中国的碳排放责任的部分，因为国外消费者的CON-消费需求产生了中国的大量的碳排放量，特别是对发达国家的消费者的国家。

总结
尽管在这项研究中的一些不确定因素，大部分地区从数据的细节产生，我们可以得出结论，国际贸易对中国的碳排放量显著的影响，并改变了时间的影响去了。

比2002年的排放量，2007年的国内出口排放267.07 MTC增加到718.31 MTC，超过160％的速度增长了;净出口的排放量也相应增加，从204.08 MTC高达615.65 MTC，超过200％的速度增长了。

从2002年23.97％，在国内排放国内出口排放的份额跃升至2007年的34.76％;网前移植的排放量超过国内排放量的比重也从2002年的18.32％上升到2007年的29.79％。

结果表明，隐含碳排放的越来越多的显著的净出口行为存在于中国经济和加工贸易对碳排放的影响也越来越显著。

无论是进口的排放量或出口的排放，大部分行业表现出在2007年的增长趋势，与2002年相比，排放量虽然部门排放量对整个经济从2002年也发生了变化，以2007年的影响，其中有进口的最大百分比主要部门或中国出口的排放保持不变。

最大的进口排放量（全部或实际进口）来自电气机械及通信电子设备，化工，冶炼及压延加金属的行业。

电器机械及通信电子设备，化工，纺织等部门是最大的排放出口，净出口的排放量，其中也最大。

技术进步可能是最有利的和可接受的方式对中国和其他发展中国家，以减少他们的碳排放量。

考虑为全球最大的碳排放量以及最近的排放量的增长在发展中国家，目前的责任的历史责任，发达国家也应该采取更多努力，帮助发展中国家减少碳排
放量通过技术援助的经济增长和财政支持。

在车上榜减排的未来谈判，它包括占经济总量的排放时，体现在国际贸易中的碳排放量会比较公平合理。

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外文原文：
The effects of international trade on Chinese carbon emissions:
An empirical analysis
WEI Benyong, *FANG Xiuqi, WANG Yuan
1. Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China;
2. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
3. School of Environment Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Abstract: International trade is an important impact factor to the carbon emissions of a country. As the rapid development of Chinese foreign trade since its entry into the WTO in 2002, the effects of international trade on carbon emissions of China are more and more significant. Using the recent available input-output tables of China and energy consumption data, this study estimated the effects of Chinese foreign trade on carbon emissions and the changes of the effects by analyzing the emissions embodied in trade between 2002 and 2007. The results showed a more and more significant exporting behavior of embodied carbon emissions in Chinese international trade. From 2002 to 2007, the proportion of net exported emissions and domestic exported emissions in domestic emissions increased from 18.32% to 29.79% and from 23.97% to 34.76%, respectively. In addition, about 22.10% and 32.29% of the total imported emissions were generated in processing trade in 2002 and 2007, respectively, which were imported and later exported emissions. Although, most of the sectors showed a growth trend in imported and exported emissions, sectors of electrical machinery and communication electronic equipment, chemical industry, and textile were still the biggest emission exporters, the net exported emissions
of which were also the largest. For China and other developing countries, technology improvement may be the most favorable and acceptable ways to reduce carbon emissions at present stage. In the future negotiations on emissions reduction, it would be more fair and reasonable to include the carbon emissions embodied in international trade when accounting the total emissions of an economy.
K eywords: input-output analysis; carbon emissions; international trade; China Introduction
Global warming has been thought as an indisputable truth. The main reason for the warming of global climate system is attributed to the continuing increase of the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases as a result of human activities (IPCC, 2007). In order to avoid the possible negative impacts of global warming on human society, a series of measures have been taken to mitigate global warming by reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases in the world. However, around the ways of CO2 emission reduction and the allocation of future carbon emission rights, a game is playing among different interest groups.
As the development of globalization, the effects of international trade on the environment are more and more significant, including the potential impacts on geographically relocating carbon emissions. Many researchers have estimated the carbon emissions embodied in in-ternational trade for particular countries as well as for the world economy (Wyckoff and Roop, 1994; Schaeffer and Leal de Sá, 1996; Machado et al., 2001; Munksgaard and Peder-sen, 2001; Ahmad and Wyckoff, 2003; Sánchez-Chóliz and Duarte, 2004; Peters and Hertwich, 2006, 2008; Mäenpää et al., 2007; Ackerman et al., 2007). A general conclusion has been that the more open the economy is, the larger the impact of foreign trade has on a country’s carbon emissions. Moreover, all those studies have been pointing out that import and export trade could not be neglected for a relatively open economy; otherwise, energy and carbon emission figures might be badly distorted for this economy (Machado et al., 2001).
As one of the top countries of carbon emissions, China is facing with more and more pressure of emission reduction. However, China is also a large country of international trade. The rapid development of China’s economy has resulted in constant growth of foreign trade. From 1997 to 2002, the value of China’s total imports and exports grew at an average annual rate of 14.35%. Since the entry into the WTO, the average annual growth rate of China’s trade jumped up to 28.64% from 2002 to 2007. Compared to the export value of 2002, it increased by 2.7 times in 2007, reaching 1217.78 billion dollars. And the import value also jumped to 955.95 billion dollars in 2007, which was 2.2 times higher than the import value of 2002. On aggregate terms, the value of China’s trade surplus expanded from 30.43 billion dollars in 2002 to 261.83 billion dollars in 2007 (NBS, 2008). The rapid growth of Chinese foreign trade would have significant effects on carbon emissions in China.
However, quantitative evaluation of the impacts of Chinese international trade on energy use and carbon emissions has only recently begun. The estimation of IEA (2007) showed that the energy-related CO2 emissions embodied in China’s domestic production for exports accounted for 34% of the total emissions in 2004. If using weighted average carbon intensity of countries from which China imported goods, the estimate of China’s net exported em-bodied CO2 might be more than 17% of the total emissions in 2004 (Levine, 2008). Using single-region input-output model, Pan et al. (2008) estimated that China’s net export of em-bodied energy and embodied emissions accounted for about 16% of the primary energy consumption and about 19% of its production emissions in 2002, respectively; the net ex-ported emissions to the USA alone accounted for about 5% of China’s reported production emissions in 2002. Applying environmental input-output analysis, Weber et al. (2008) estimated the CO2 emissions emitted in the production of exports in China from 1987 to 2005 and found that in 2005, around one-third of the Chinese emissions were due to production of exports, and this proportion has risen from 12% in 1987 to 21% in 2002; the consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. The estimation of Wei et al. (2009a) also found that a significant exporting behavior of embodied emissions existed in the Chinese economy in 2002; furthermore, over 20% of the total imported emissions were exported later (emissions in processing trade). In addition, using multiregion input-output model, Peters and Hertwich (2008) also found that the exported emissions represented 24.4% of the Chinese domestic emissions in 2001 and the percentage of imported emissions was only 6.6%. The similar research of Atkinson et al. (2009) also showed that China is a net exported country of carbon emissions in international trade. Recently, using an ecological input–output mod-eling based on the physical entry scheme, Chen and Chen (2010) estimated that the CO2 emissions and energy embodied in China’s exports represent 32.31% and 33.65% of the total emissions and total energy in 2007, respectively.
USA and European countries were the main importers of carbon emissions exported from China. Using Economic Input Output-Life Cycle Assessment software, Shui and Harriss (2006) found that during 1997–2003 about 7%–14% of China’s CO2 emissions were the results of producing goods for exports to the USA; CO2 emissions of USA would have in-creased from 3%–6% if the goods imported from China had been produced in the USA. Ap-plying the similar method, Li and Hewitt (2008) estimated CO2 emissions embodied in bi-lateral trade between the UK and China and found that about 4% of China’s CO2 emissions in 2004 were as a result of producing goods for the UK market; the UK reduced its CO2 emissions by approximately 11% through trade with China in 2004. The estimation of Weber et al. (2008) also found that large portions of recent Chinese export emissions went to the developed world, with approximately 27% to the USA, 19% to the EU27, and 14% to the remaining Annex B countries, mainly Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Recently, Xu et al. (2009) studied the environmental impacts, particularly energy consumption and air emissions, embodied in the eastbound (from China to the USA) trade from 2002 to 2007, using an environmental input-output analysis and the adjusted bilateral trade data. They found that embodied energy and embodied CO2 accounted for about 12%–17% of China’s energy consumption and about 8%–12% of China’s CO2 emissions, respectively. The study of Zhang (2009) also got the similar results.
Although there were already some meaningful studies on carbon emissions embodied in Chinese international trade, further related researches would be necessary as the rapid development of Chinese foreign trade, especially as the development of processing trade. Ac-cording to statistics (NBS, 2008), the exporting share of processing trade has been over 50% of the total exports since 1996 and the share reached up to 55.26% and 50.71% in 2002 and 2007, respectively. It will be necessary to distinguish the effects of processing trade and general trade on carbon emissions of China.
Because the input–output tables are estimated only every 5 years in China, we chose the recent Chinese input-output table of 2002 (entry into the WTO) and 2007 (the latest issue) to estimate the effects of Chinese international trade on carbon emissions and the changes of the effects from the view of the final demands in this paper. Moreover, we distinguished the domestic and imported inputs in production processes and evaluated the effects of processing trade (emissions imported and later exported), which would be benefit for us to further understand the situations of emissions embodied in international trade. In this study, we try to answer three questions: 1) As a large country of foreign trade, what was the amount of the net emissions generated in China for foreign regions due to the import and export trade? 2) How did the effects of international trade on carbon emissions change from 2002 to 2007 in China? 3) Which sectors were the key emission sectors in Chinese import and export trade and how their roles changed from 2002 to 2007?
Discussion
Uncertainties in the carbon emission calculations
There are some uncertainties in calculating the emissions embodied in Chinese trade. One is that, the input–output analysis itself has many inherent uncertainties (more discussions in Lenzen, 2001). Based on the Chinese single-region input-output table, it may allow us to get a relatively accurate assessment of the emissions embodied in Chinese exports, but when estimating the emissions in goods and services exported to China, the errors may be more significant (Lenzen, 2001; Lenzen et al., 2004). Another important uncertainty is from the method of calculating the carbon intensity factors of imports from different regions, which may underestimate the emissions embodied in imported manufactured goods produced in the countries with larger proportion of tertiary industry and smaller proportion of secondary industry. Additionally, to obtain the import use matrix from the original IO table, the method of pro-rating the import column would also inevitably lead to certain errors.
At present, for the reason of data availability, we are not able to fully quantify the precision of our calculation results, but preliminary estimates show that the outcome from the study using the more accurate data will not substantially alter the conclusions obtained in this analysis. These limitations would be improved through the use of multiregion IO table and more accurate industry carbon intensities of foreign regions, and the detailed analysis of inter-sector production process in
the future.
Understanding of the impacts of international trade on Chinese carbon emissions
From 2002 to 2007, the extent of the effects of foreign trade on Chinese carbon emissions had expanded sharply. It might be largely related to two factors. The first is the coal-based energy consumption structure and the secondary industry-based production structure which would keep the domestic energy intensity higher. In 2002, the consumption of coal ac-counted for 66.3% of the total energy consumption. And 44.8% of gross domestic product of China was attributed to secondary industry in 2002 (NBS, 2008). In 2007, the relevant shares rose up to 69.5% and 48.6%, respectively, which would result in the carbon emissions embodied in unit exports being more than that embodied in unit imports. The second factor, which might be the more important factor, is the rapid growth of export trade. From 2002 to 2007, China’s exports increased by 246.80%, while the imports increased by 199.97% (NBS, 2008). The growth rate of exports was faster than that of imports, which might result in the sharp increase of the amounts of net exported emissions. Using input-output structural decomposition analysis, Liu et al. (2010) also found that the expanding total volume of exports and increasing exports of energy-intensive goods tend to enlarge the energy embodied in exports from 1992 to 2005, but the improvement of energy efficiency and changes in primary energy consumption structure can offset some effects of the above driving forces on energy embodiment in exports.
Although, the coal-based energy consumption structure and the secondary industry-based production structure have more important roles in the increase of carbon emissions, it may be hard for China to adjust the structure characteristics in a short time because of its endowment characteristics and its present economic development stage. In addition, the growth of Chinese foreign trade, including the expansion of its trade surplus, is mainly the result of maximizing the relative advantage in the market economic system. The development of Chinese economy not only provides the rest countries of the world lots of goods and services that they need through China’s exports, but also reduces the relative cost of production in developed countries. Chinese foreign trade has been playing an important role in the economic development of the world, due to its huge market, stable government system and abundant cheap labor. Consequently, it is thought that at the present stage, the better way for China to reduce the impacts of international trade on national or global carbon emissions should be to improve its production technologies and reduce the energy consumption intensity on the whole, not to only control the amounts of Chinese foreign trade. Furthermore, the countries which imported goods from China should take parts of responsibility for Chinese carbon emissions, because much carbon emissions of China were generated for the consumption demands of foreign consumers, especially for the consumers of the developed countries.
Conclusions
Despite the some uncertainties in this study, most parts resulting from the details of data, we can conclude that the international trade had significant effects on Chinese carbon emissions, and the effects changed as the time went. Compared to the emissions of 2002, the domestic exported emissions of 2007 increased from 267.07 MtC to 718.31 MtC, increasing by over 160%; the net exported emissions increased correspondingly from 204.08 MtC up to 615.65 MtC, increasing by over 200%. The share of domestic exported emissions in the domestic emissions jumped from 23.97% of 2002 up to 34.76% of 2007; the proportion of net ex-ported emissions over domestic emissions also increased from 18.32% of 2002 up to 29.79% of 2007. The results showed that a more and more significant net exporting behavior of em-bodied carbon emissions exists in Chinese economy and the effects of processing trade on carbon emissions were also more and more significant.
Whether imported emissions or exported emissions, most sectors showed a growth trend in 2007, compared with the emissions of 2002. Although the influences of sectoral emissions on the whole economy also changed from 2002 to 2007, the main sectors which had the largest percentages of imported or exported emissions of China stayed the same. The largest imported emissions (total or actual imports) were from sectors of electrical machinery and communication electronic equipment, chemical industry, smelting and pressing of metals. The sectors of electrical machinery and communication electronic equipment, chemical industry, and textile were the biggest emission exporters, the net exported emissions of which were also the largest.
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