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Supply also affected, on weak demand, low prices, credit crunch & investment slippage、 需求减弱、价格下降、信贷紧缩和投资延误也影响供应 2009 f forecast already d t l d down by 1.7 mb/d since July 2008, excluding 2008 b b 1 7 b/d i J l 2008 l di baseline changes li h 2009年预测显示自2008年7月以来每天下降1.7百万桶. (除2008年的基准情景变化) Canada & Russia taking a hit in terms of investment & likely output 加拿大和俄罗斯在投资和产量上将受影响 $50/bbl oil unlikely to see extensive shut-ins of current output per se 每桶50美元的石油价格不一定会造成大面积的供应停顿 But impact of lower spend on new projects and prevailing decline rates at mature fields
Exploration and development 80%
Transmission & distribution Exploration & 31% development 61% LNG chain 8%
Shipping & ports 9%
Mining 91%
© OECD/IEA - 2009
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Challenges Facing the Development of the World’s Energy
Mr. Nobuo Tanaka Mr Executive Director International Energy Agency gy g y
Effective OPEC Spare Capacity World Supply Capacity Grow th
World Dem and Grow th
• Today’s prices are 70% lower than in July 2008今天的价格比2008年7月低70% • P iti i Positive impact on economy in th h t t t i the short term短期内对经济的正面影响 短期内对经济的正面影响 • But there is a danger of a reduction of investment in the coming months and years as investors face uncertainty. 由于投资者面临不确定形势, 未来投资可能减少
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
In the 450 Policy Scenario emissions peak around 2020,and then decline by more than 1/3 to reach 26 Gt in 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
450政策情景中，排放量在2020 年达到最高点后开始下降。到2030年下降1/3 ，至260亿吨。
Investment of $26 trillion, or over $1 trillion/year, is needed, but the credit squeeze could delay Investment of $26 trillion or over $1 trillion/year is needed but the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply‐crunch once the economy recovers 需要二十六万亿美元，或每年超过1万亿美元的投资。 但信贷紧缩可能会延迟开支，在经济 一旦复苏时有可能造成供应紧张.
LongLong-term oil-supply cost curve oil(with $50 per tonne of CO2) 长期石油供应成本曲线 （二氧化碳每吨50美元） （二氧化碳每吨50美元）
A carbon price of $50 per tonne of CO2 would increase the cost of producing non‐conventional oil b i f$ 0 f CO ld i h f d i i l il the most – by as much as $30 per barrel – due to its higher energy intensity 二氧化碳每吨50美元的价格将会使非传统石油生产成本增加到最高-达每桶30美元-由于其较 © OECD/IEA - 2009 高的能源强度
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
97% of the projected increase in emissions between 2006 & 2030 comes from non‐OECD countries – three‐quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone 2006到2030 年，预计97%的排放量增长来自非OECD国家, 其中中国,印度和中东占3/4
国际能源署总干事田中伸男先生
Beijing Energy Club 19 April 2009 Club,
北京国际能源专家俱乐部 20- 2009
Weakening economy drives demand revisions 经济衰退导致需求的变化
$/bbl
Crude Futures Front Month Close
m b/d 89 88 87 86 85 84 83
OMR 2009 Oil Demand & GDP Forecast Evolution
Y-o-Y % 5 World GDP Grow th 4 Total Dem and 3 2 1 0 -1 -2
Energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Policy Scenario 450政策情景中能源相关的二氧化碳排放量
Gigatonnes 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 International marine bunkers and aviation d i ti OECD ‐ gas OECD ‐ oil OECD ‐ coal Non‐OECD ‐ gas Non‐OECD ‐ oil Non‐OECD ‐ coal
Evaluating supply-side impacts 评估供应方的影响
Change to 2009 supply forecast, net of 2008 baseline changes, mb/d
0.00 ‐0.20 ‐0.40 ‐0.60 ‐0.80 ‐1.00 ‐1.20 ‐1.40 ‐1.60 ‐1.80
52% $13.6 trillion $13.6 trillion
Oil
24% $6.3 trillion $6 3 trillion
Gas
21% $5.5 trillion $5 5 trillion
Transmission & distribution 50%
Shipping 4% Refining 16% Power generation 50%
Two year demand contraction in 08/09 first since early-1980s y y 八十年代初以来首次两年需求紧缩, 08/09 OECD hit hard, but clear signs that non-OECD is slowing now too OECD国家受严重影响， 但明显迹象表明，非OECD国家的经济也正在放缓 Latest GDP estimates suggest -1.4% for 2009 国内生产总值的最新预测显示2009年全球经济将面临-1.4 ％的增长
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Ju l-0 8 A ug -0 Se 8 p08 O ct -0 N 8 ov -0 D 8 ec -0 Ja 8 n0 Fe 9 b0 M 9 ar -0 A 9 pr -0 9
70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Source: Platt s 35 30 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 NYMEX WTI ICE Brent
Energy-related CO2 emissions in the Reference Scenario 参考情景中能源相关的二氧化碳排放量
Gigatonnes 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 International marine bunkers and aviation d i ti OECD ‐ gas OECD ‐ oil OECD ‐ coal Non‐OECD ‐ gas Non‐OECD ‐ oil Non‐OECD ‐ coal
December 2008 Forecast July 2008 Forecast
m b/d 6.0
5.0
M di G th B l Medium-Term Growth Balance T
40 4.0
3.0 2.0
1.0 0.0
-1.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
© OECD/IEA - 2009
World oil production by source in the Reference Scenario 参考情景下各种类世界石油产量
© OECD/IEA - 2009
64 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – / fg p y six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia to meet demand growth & offset decline 2007‐2030年间需要增加 6400万桶 /日的总产能以应对需求的增长和油田产量的递减 ，这相当于目前沙特阿拉伯的产能的6倍。
Reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Policy Scenario 450政策情景中能源相关的二氧化碳减排
Gigatonnes
45 Reference Scenario 40
35% (5.2 Gt reduction)
Cumulative energy supply investment in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030 2007至2030年 参考情景中累积能源供应投资
Coal
3% $0.7 trillion Biofuels <1% $0.2 trillion
Power
© OECD/IEA - 2009
OPEC crude OPEC gas liquids OPEC gas liquids Non‐OPEC
新项目资金投入的减少和成熟油田的产量递减所造成的影响不容乐观
3
Supply and Demand Outlook Comparison, 2008-2013
2008年 到 2013年 供应和需求展望对比
Exploration and development 80%
Transmission & distribution Exploration & 31% development 61% LNG chain 8%
Shipping & ports 9%
Mining 91%
© OECD/IEA - 2009
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Challenges Facing the Development of the World’s Energy
Mr. Nobuo Tanaka Mr Executive Director International Energy Agency gy g y
Effective OPEC Spare Capacity World Supply Capacity Grow th
World Dem and Grow th
• Today’s prices are 70% lower than in July 2008今天的价格比2008年7月低70% • P iti i Positive impact on economy in th h t t t i the short term短期内对经济的正面影响 短期内对经济的正面影响 • But there is a danger of a reduction of investment in the coming months and years as investors face uncertainty. 由于投资者面临不确定形势, 未来投资可能减少
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
In the 450 Policy Scenario emissions peak around 2020,and then decline by more than 1/3 to reach 26 Gt in 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
450政策情景中，排放量在2020 年达到最高点后开始下降。到2030年下降1/3 ，至260亿吨。
Investment of $26 trillion, or over $1 trillion/year, is needed, but the credit squeeze could delay Investment of $26 trillion or over $1 trillion/year is needed but the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply‐crunch once the economy recovers 需要二十六万亿美元，或每年超过1万亿美元的投资。 但信贷紧缩可能会延迟开支，在经济 一旦复苏时有可能造成供应紧张.
LongLong-term oil-supply cost curve oil(with $50 per tonne of CO2) 长期石油供应成本曲线 （二氧化碳每吨50美元） （二氧化碳每吨50美元）
A carbon price of $50 per tonne of CO2 would increase the cost of producing non‐conventional oil b i f$ 0 f CO ld i h f d i i l il the most – by as much as $30 per barrel – due to its higher energy intensity 二氧化碳每吨50美元的价格将会使非传统石油生产成本增加到最高-达每桶30美元-由于其较 © OECD/IEA - 2009 高的能源强度
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
97% of the projected increase in emissions between 2006 & 2030 comes from non‐OECD countries – three‐quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone 2006到2030 年，预计97%的排放量增长来自非OECD国家, 其中中国,印度和中东占3/4
国际能源署总干事田中伸男先生
Beijing Energy Club 19 April 2009 Club,
北京国际能源专家俱乐部 20- 2009
Weakening economy drives demand revisions 经济衰退导致需求的变化
$/bbl
Crude Futures Front Month Close
m b/d 89 88 87 86 85 84 83
OMR 2009 Oil Demand & GDP Forecast Evolution
Y-o-Y % 5 World GDP Grow th 4 Total Dem and 3 2 1 0 -1 -2
Energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Policy Scenario 450政策情景中能源相关的二氧化碳排放量
Gigatonnes 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 International marine bunkers and aviation d i ti OECD ‐ gas OECD ‐ oil OECD ‐ coal Non‐OECD ‐ gas Non‐OECD ‐ oil Non‐OECD ‐ coal
Evaluating supply-side impacts 评估供应方的影响
Change to 2009 supply forecast, net of 2008 baseline changes, mb/d
0.00 ‐0.20 ‐0.40 ‐0.60 ‐0.80 ‐1.00 ‐1.20 ‐1.40 ‐1.60 ‐1.80
52% $13.6 trillion $13.6 trillion
Oil
24% $6.3 trillion $6 3 trillion
Gas
21% $5.5 trillion $5 5 trillion
Transmission & distribution 50%
Shipping 4% Refining 16% Power generation 50%
Two year demand contraction in 08/09 first since early-1980s y y 八十年代初以来首次两年需求紧缩, 08/09 OECD hit hard, but clear signs that non-OECD is slowing now too OECD国家受严重影响， 但明显迹象表明，非OECD国家的经济也正在放缓 Latest GDP estimates suggest -1.4% for 2009 国内生产总值的最新预测显示2009年全球经济将面临-1.4 ％的增长
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Ju l-0 8 A ug -0 Se 8 p08 O ct -0 N 8 ov -0 D 8 ec -0 Ja 8 n0 Fe 9 b0 M 9 ar -0 A 9 pr -0 9
70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Source: Platt s 35 30 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 NYMEX WTI ICE Brent
Energy-related CO2 emissions in the Reference Scenario 参考情景中能源相关的二氧化碳排放量
Gigatonnes 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 International marine bunkers and aviation d i ti OECD ‐ gas OECD ‐ oil OECD ‐ coal Non‐OECD ‐ gas Non‐OECD ‐ oil Non‐OECD ‐ coal
December 2008 Forecast July 2008 Forecast
m b/d 6.0
5.0
M di G th B l Medium-Term Growth Balance T
40 4.0
3.0 2.0
1.0 0.0
-1.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
© OECD/IEA - 2009
World oil production by source in the Reference Scenario 参考情景下各种类世界石油产量
© OECD/IEA - 2009
64 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – / fg p y six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia to meet demand growth & offset decline 2007‐2030年间需要增加 6400万桶 /日的总产能以应对需求的增长和油田产量的递减 ，这相当于目前沙特阿拉伯的产能的6倍。
Reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Policy Scenario 450政策情景中能源相关的二氧化碳减排
Gigatonnes
45 Reference Scenario 40
35% (5.2 Gt reduction)
Cumulative energy supply investment in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030 2007至2030年 参考情景中累积能源供应投资
Coal
3% $0.7 trillion Biofuels <1% $0.2 trillion
Power
© OECD/IEA - 2009
OPEC crude OPEC gas liquids OPEC gas liquids Non‐OPEC
新项目资金投入的减少和成熟油田的产量递减所造成的影响不容乐观
3
Supply and Demand Outlook Comparison, 2008-2013
2008年 到 2013年 供应和需求展望对比