贝恩咨询分析方法-bainmath

• To understand how a company has performed over time (e.g., in terms of revenue, costs, or profit), it is necessary to remove inflation, (i.e. use real figures).
has purchased this time series for all Bain employees to use.
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Bain Math
Inflation - Real vs. Nominal Figures
inflation does not create intrinsic value.
Related Terminology:
1. Real (constant) dollars:
2. Nominal (current) dollars:
3. Price deflator
Dollar figures for a number of years that are stated in a chosen “base” year’s dollar terms (i.e., inflation has been taken out). Any year can be chosen as the base year, but all dollar figures must be stated in the same base year
122.02
2005
125.65
2006
129.31
2007
132.96
2008
136.57
2009
140.26
2010
144.06
2011
147.89
2012
151.90
2013
156.05
2014
160.29
2015
164.73
2016
169.25
2017
173.83
2018
178.53
2019
of currency.
• If an item cost $1.00 in 1997 and cost $1.03 in 1998, inflation was 3%
from 1997 to 1998. The item is not intrinsically more valuable in 1998
A B
or
A:B
A ratio can be used to calculate price per unit (PUrniciet ), given the total revenue and total units
Given:
total revenue = $9.0 MM
total units =
Given: Answer:
Revenue = SG&A =
1996 $135MM $ 83MM
1999 $270MM $?
$135MM $270MM $ 83MM = $?
135MM x ? = 83MM x 270MM
?= 83MMx270MM 135MM
= $166MM
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Dollar figures for a number of years that are stated in each individual year’s dollar terms (i.e., inflation has not been taken out).
A price deflator is a measure of inflation over time.
Note :
It is important to specify on slides and spreadsheets whether you are using real or nominal figures. If you are using real figures, you should also note what you have chosen as the base year.
over time. In nominal dollars, GE’s washer prices have increased by
an average of 4.5% since 1970.
$2,000
CAGR (1970 -1992)
$1,500
Nominal dollars 4.5%
183.33
2020
188.31ຫໍສະໝຸດ % Change1.95 1.97 2.46 2.51 2.52 2.47 2.58 2.75 2.90 2.97 2.92 2.82 2.71 2.70 2.71 2.65 2.72 2.73 2.72 2.76 2.75 2.71 2.70 2.69 2.71
*1996 is the base year Note: These are the U.S. Price Deflators which WEFA Group has forecasted through the year 2020. The library
•Financial math
•Statistical math
Agenda
BOS CU7112997ECA 3 Copyright© 1998 Bain & Company, Inc.
Bain Math
Ratio
Definition: Application:
The
ratio
of
A
to
B
is
written
BOS CU7112997ECA 6 Copyright© 1998 Bain & Company, Inc.
Bain Math
Inflation - Definitions
Definition:
Inflation is defined as the year-over-year decrease in the value of a unit
bc
Bain Math
Author: Collins Qian Reviewer: Brian Bilello
March 1998
Copyright© 1998 Bain & Company, Inc.
Bain Math
•Basic math •Financial math •Statistical math
Agenda
BOS CU7112997ECA 2 Copyright© 1998 Bain & Company, Inc.
Bain Math
•Basic math
– ratio –proportion – percent –inflation –foreign exchange – graphing
Bain Math
Proportion
Definition:
If the ratio of A to B is equal to the ratio of C to D, then A and B are proportional to C and D.
A= C BD
It follows that A x D = B x C
Whether you should use real (constant) figures or nominal (current) figures depends on the situation and the client’s preference.
When to use real vs. Nominal figures :
BOS CU7112997ECA 7 Copyright© 1998 Bain & Company, Inc.
Bain Math
Inflation - U.S. Price Deflators
A deflator table lists price deflators for a number of years.
Price Price
deflator deflator
(current year) (base year)
=
Dollar Dollar
figure figure
(current year) (base year)
=
Inflation between current year and base year
Year 1996=100* % Change
1970
27.79
5.32
1971
29.23
5.18
1972
30.46
4.23
1973
32.18
5.64
1974
35.07
8.99
1975
38.36
9.37
1976
40.61
5.86
1977
43.23
6.45
1978
46.37
7.26
1979
50.35
8.58
1980
55.00
9.25
1981
60.18
9.41
1982
63.97
6.30
1983
66.68
4.24
1984
69.21
3.79
1985
71.59
3.43
1986
73.46
2.62
1987
75.71
3.06
1988
78.48
3.65
1989
81.79
4.22
1990
85.34
4.34
1991
88.72
BOS CU7112997ECA 9 Copyright© 1998 Bain & Company, Inc.
Bain Math
Inflation - Example (1)
Adjusting for inflation is critical for any analysis looking at prices
3.97
1992
91.16
2.75
1993
93.54
2.62
1994
95.67
2.28
1995
98.08
2.51
Year
1996=100*
1996
100.00
1997
101.97
1998
104.48
1999
107.10
2000
109.80
2001
112.51
2002
115.41
2003
118.58
2004
Application: The concept of proportion can be used to project SG&A costs in 1999, given revenue in 1996, SG&A costs in 1996, and revenue in 1999 (assuming SG&A and revenue in 1999 are proportional to SG&A and revenue in 1996)
1.5 MM
price/unit =
$?
Answer: Price = $9MM = $6.0 Unit 1.5MM
Note:
The math for ratios is simple. Identifying a relevant unit can be challenging
BOS CU7112997ECA 4 Copyright© 1998 Bain & Company, Inc.
•Since most companies use nominal figures in their annual
reports, if you are showing the client’s revenue over time, it is preferable to use nominal figures.
- the dollar is less valuable
• When calculating the “real” growth of a dollar figure over time (e.g.,
revenue growth, unit cost growth), it is necessary to subtract out the effects of inflation. Inflationary growth is not “real” growth because
•For an experience curve, where you want to understand
how price or cost has changed over time due to accumulated experience, you must use real figures