公司融资决策与有效资本市场(英文版)(ppt 30页)
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• The next five chapters concern financing decisions.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-2
What Sort of Financing Dn
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-7
13.3 The Different Types of Efficiency
• Weak Form
– Security prices reflect all information found in past prices and volume.
Buy Buy
If it were possible to make big money simply by finding “the pattern” in the stock price movements, everyone would do it and the profits would be competed away.
13-9
Why Technical Analysis Fails
Investor behavior tends to eliminate any profit opportunity associated with stock price patterns.
Stock Price
Sell Sell
2. Reduce Costs or Increase Subsidies
Certain forms of financing have tax advantages or carry other subsidies.
3. Create a New Security
Sometimes a firm can find a previously-unsatisfied clientele and issue new securities at favorable prices.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-5 Reaction of Stock Price to New Information in Efficient and Inefficient Markets
13-0
Chapter Outline
13.1 Can Financing Decisions Create Value? 13.2 A Description of Efficient Capital Markets 13.3 The Different Types of Efficiency 13.4 The Evidence 13.5 Implications for Corporate Finance 13.6 Summary and Conclusions
Stock Price Overreaction to “good
news” with reversion
Efficient market response to “good news”
Delayed response to “good news”
-30
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
-20
-10 0 +10 +20 +30 Days before (-) and
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-12 Relationship among Three Different Information Sets
All information relevant to a stock
information, which by definition arrives randomly, stock prices are said to follow a random walk.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Strong form efficiency incorporates weak and semi-strong form efficiency.
• Strong form efficiency says that anything pertinent to the stock and known to at least one investor is already incorporated into the security’s price.
Stock Efficient market Price response to “bad news”
Delayed response to “bad news”
-30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30
Overreaction to “bad news” with reversion
Days before (-) and after (+) announcement
after (+) announcement
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-6 Reaction of Stock Price to New Information in Efficient and Inefficient Markets
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-3
How to Create Value through Financing
1. Fool Investors
Empirical evidence suggests that it is hard to fool investors consistently.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-8
Weak Form Market Efficiency
• Security prices reflect all information found in past prices and volume.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-1
13.1 Can Financing Decisions Create Value?
• Earlier parts of the book show how to evaluate investment projects according the NPV criterion.
– Since information is reflected in security prices quickly, knowing information when it is released does an investor no good.
– Firms should expect to receive the fair value for securities that they sell. Firms cannot profit from fooling investors in an efficient market.
In the long-run, this value creation is relatively small, however.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-11
Strong Form Market Efficiency
• Security Prices reflect all information— public and private.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Time
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-10
Semi-Strong Form Market Efficiency
• Security Prices reflect all publicly available information.
Information set of publicly available
information
Information set of
• If the weak form of market efficiency holds, then technical analysis is of no value.
• Often weak-form efficiency is represented as
Pt = Pt-1 + Expected return + random error t • Since stock prices only respond to new
• Typical financing decisions include:
– How much debt and equity to sell – When (or if) to pay dividends – When to sell debt and equity
• Just as we can use NPV criteria to evaluate investment decisions, we can use NPV to evaluate financing decisions.
• Semi-Strong Form
– Security prices reflect all publicly available information.
• Strong Form
– Security prices reflect all information—public and private.
• Publicly available information includes:
– Historical price and volume information – Published accounting statements. – Information found in annual reports.
13-4
13.2 A Description of Efficient Capital Markets
• An efficient capital market is one in which stock prices fully reflect available information.
• The EMH has implications for investors and firms.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-2
What Sort of Financing Dn
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-7
13.3 The Different Types of Efficiency
• Weak Form
– Security prices reflect all information found in past prices and volume.
Buy Buy
If it were possible to make big money simply by finding “the pattern” in the stock price movements, everyone would do it and the profits would be competed away.
13-9
Why Technical Analysis Fails
Investor behavior tends to eliminate any profit opportunity associated with stock price patterns.
Stock Price
Sell Sell
2. Reduce Costs or Increase Subsidies
Certain forms of financing have tax advantages or carry other subsidies.
3. Create a New Security
Sometimes a firm can find a previously-unsatisfied clientele and issue new securities at favorable prices.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-5 Reaction of Stock Price to New Information in Efficient and Inefficient Markets
13-0
Chapter Outline
13.1 Can Financing Decisions Create Value? 13.2 A Description of Efficient Capital Markets 13.3 The Different Types of Efficiency 13.4 The Evidence 13.5 Implications for Corporate Finance 13.6 Summary and Conclusions
Stock Price Overreaction to “good
news” with reversion
Efficient market response to “good news”
Delayed response to “good news”
-30
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
-20
-10 0 +10 +20 +30 Days before (-) and
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-12 Relationship among Three Different Information Sets
All information relevant to a stock
information, which by definition arrives randomly, stock prices are said to follow a random walk.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Strong form efficiency incorporates weak and semi-strong form efficiency.
• Strong form efficiency says that anything pertinent to the stock and known to at least one investor is already incorporated into the security’s price.
Stock Efficient market Price response to “bad news”
Delayed response to “bad news”
-30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30
Overreaction to “bad news” with reversion
Days before (-) and after (+) announcement
after (+) announcement
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-6 Reaction of Stock Price to New Information in Efficient and Inefficient Markets
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-3
How to Create Value through Financing
1. Fool Investors
Empirical evidence suggests that it is hard to fool investors consistently.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-8
Weak Form Market Efficiency
• Security prices reflect all information found in past prices and volume.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-1
13.1 Can Financing Decisions Create Value?
• Earlier parts of the book show how to evaluate investment projects according the NPV criterion.
– Since information is reflected in security prices quickly, knowing information when it is released does an investor no good.
– Firms should expect to receive the fair value for securities that they sell. Firms cannot profit from fooling investors in an efficient market.
In the long-run, this value creation is relatively small, however.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-11
Strong Form Market Efficiency
• Security Prices reflect all information— public and private.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Time
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-10
Semi-Strong Form Market Efficiency
• Security Prices reflect all publicly available information.
Information set of publicly available
information
Information set of
• If the weak form of market efficiency holds, then technical analysis is of no value.
• Often weak-form efficiency is represented as
Pt = Pt-1 + Expected return + random error t • Since stock prices only respond to new
• Typical financing decisions include:
– How much debt and equity to sell – When (or if) to pay dividends – When to sell debt and equity
• Just as we can use NPV criteria to evaluate investment decisions, we can use NPV to evaluate financing decisions.
• Semi-Strong Form
– Security prices reflect all publicly available information.
• Strong Form
– Security prices reflect all information—public and private.
• Publicly available information includes:
– Historical price and volume information – Published accounting statements. – Information found in annual reports.
13-4
13.2 A Description of Efficient Capital Markets
• An efficient capital market is one in which stock prices fully reflect available information.
• The EMH has implications for investors and firms.