巴西商业研究报告英文版

BUSINESS DYNAMICS: BRAZIL Euromonitor International
May 2017
LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES
Chart 1SWOT Analysis: Brazil (1)
Regulatory Environment (1)
Time Taken To Pay Taxes Is the Highest Globally in 2017 (1)
Chart 2Overview of the Business Environment in Brazil (2)
Operating Risks (2)
Corruption Is Prevalent, But Lower Than Peers (2)
Chart 3Case Study on Operating Risks: Brazil (3)
Chart 4Operational Risks in Brazil (3)
Access To Finance (4)
Brazil Continued To Record the Highest Annual Lending Rates Regionally in 2017 (4)
Chart 5Finance in Brazil (4)
Transport and Infrastructure (5)
Fourth Highest Logistics Ranking in the Region (5)
Chart 6Infrastructural Environment in Brazil (5)
Communications and Innovation (6)
A Relatively Developed Ict Environment (6)
Chart 7Case Study on Communication and Innovation: Brazil (7)
Chart 8ICT Environment and Innovation in Brazil (7)
Education and Skills (8)
Skill Shortage Is A Key Challenge (8)
Chart 9Education and Skills in Brazil (9)
Employment and Labour Costs (10)
Youth Unemployment Rate Surged To Reach A Record High Level in 2016 (10)
Chart 10 An Overview of the Labour Market in Brazil (10)
Regional Comparison (11)
Chart 11Chart 11 Overview of Regional Comparison (11)
BUSINESS DYNAMICS: BRAZIL
Brazil’s business environment benefits from generally open policies towards foreign direct investment (FDI), government support to infrastructure and innovation activities, and a developing information and communications technology (ICT) sector. However, several challenges remain in the form of excessive bureaucratic procedures, a cumbersome tax system, persistent corruption, rigid labour market and weak quality of education.
Chart 1 SWOT Analysis: Brazil
Source: Euromonitor International
REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
Time Taken To Pay Taxes Is the Highest Globally in 2017
Brazil ranks to be one of the most difficult places to do business in Latin America:
▪Brazil’s economic freedom ranking deteriorated over 2011-2017, making it the eighth most economically unfree nation regionally in 2017, due to its weak fiscal position, high state intrusion and inefficient regulations;
▪Generally open policies towards FDI exist in Brazil, but limitations persists in certain sectors, including health, mass media, telecommunications and aerospace. The government in March 2016 passed a bill to ease restrictions on FDI in the airline companies to 49.0% from 20.0%, and also seeks to open agricultural lands to foreign buyers;
▪The Ease of Doing Business ranking worsened in the past two years, making Brazil the 10th most difficult place to do business in Latin America in 2017, owing to excessive levels of red tape that prevail in its business regulations;
▪Brazil recorded the fourth highest total tax rate regionally in 2017. While the country does offers tax rebates for exporters and investment made in less developed areas, the effective tax burden remains very high.
Chart 2 Overview of the Business Environment in Brazil
Source: Euromonitor International from the World Bank/Heritage Foundation
Note: The Index of Economic Freedom Rankings 2017 are out of 180 nations
OPERATING RISKS
Corruption Is Prevalent, But Lower Than Peers
Burdensome regulations and persistent corruption make it difficult for businesses to operate: Corruption remains prevalent in Brazil despite various government initiatives. The Clean Company Act 2014 stipulates strict penalties for companies whose employees engage in corrupt acts. Under the ongoing ‘Operation Car Wash’, Brazil’s former President Dilma Rousseff was ousted in August 2016, accused of corruption;
Brazil’s 2015 regulatory qua lity ranking worsened over the years and stood relatively lower, as firms operating here are known to suffer from long bureaucratic delays, efficiency losses, and additional costs owing to red tape.
Chart 3 Case Study on Operating Risks: Brazil
Source: Euromonitor International
Chart 4 Operational Risks in Brazil
Source: Euromonitor International from Transparency International/Institute for Economics and
Peace/UNDOC/World Bank
Note: Global Terrorism Index 2016 scores were calculated for 162 countries. A higher score (out of 10.0) in the Global Terrorism Index implies a worsening country environment related to terrorism. A higher ranking in the Rule of Law Index implies better governance
ACCESS TO FINANCE
Brazil Continued To Record the Highest Annual Lending Rates Regionally in 2017
It is getting tougher for businesses to get credit in Brazil, but the central bank recently slashed its key interest rate:
▪Given low economic activity and inflation, between October 2016 and April 2017, Brazil’s Central Bank slashed its key interest rate by 300 basis points in total to reach 11.25%, signalling the reduced cost of borrowing;
▪A low level of information available on borrowers as well as lenders, signals higher occurrences of defaults and fraudulence, making getting credit difficult in Brazil;
▪To control inflation the central bank continuously raised interest rates over 2013-2016, causing the annual lending rate to rise to reach its highest level of 52.3% in more than a decade. Prolonged recession over 2013-2016, contributed to the rise in bank nonperforming loans over the years to become the fourth highest regionally in 2016;
▪The country’s Stock Market Index was one of the worst performing globally as it contracted by 13.4% over 2011-2016, owing to four years of prolonged recession that caused both investor and consumer confidence to plunge.
Chart 5 Finance in Brazil
Source: Euromonitor International from IMF/IFS/World Bank/World Federation of Exchanges/national sources/OECD/UN
TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Fourth Highest Logistics Ranking in the Region
Brazil has a generally weak infrastructure network with logistics and transport services doing poorly:
▪Brazil recorded the fourth highest ranking regionally in the Logistics Performance Index 2016, as its ranking improved since 2014, partly due to a higher score in the efficiency of customs and border clearance sub-category. However, the share of paved roads in Brazil was only 12.1% in 2016 compared to the OECD and Latin American averages of 70.6% and 21.0% respectively, contributing to logistical bottlenecks and rising transportation costs;
▪In June 2015, the government launched an infrastructure package worth US$64.0 billion; a third of the amount will be spent by 2018 on transport infrastructure and the rest will be rolled out gradually commencing from 2019.
Chart 6 Infrastructural Environment in Brazil
Source: Euromonitor International from ICAO/World Bank/national statistics/IRF/International Union of Railways (UIC)/Eurostat
Note: A higher score in the Logistics Performance Index (and its sub-categories) implies a better logistical environment
COMMUNICATIONS AND INNOVATION
A Relatively Developed Ict Environment
The government is taking steps to enhance digital coverage in rural areas:
▪Brazil’s Networked Readiness Ranking worsened over 2011-2016, but stood higher than most of its peers, thanks to its large mobile subscription rate. Purchase of digital devices is on the rise, driven by declining technology prices, an expanding access network and a growing ‘new middle class’. However, regional disparities in purchasing power and educ ation levels impact possession rates, as does the state of the network infrastructure. In 2015, the government announced a new National Broadband Plan, to encourage higher coverage among poorer consumers;
▪R&D intensity of 1.2% in 2016 was the highest regionally, thanks to various government programmes launched to boost R&D amongst private enterprises.
Chart 7 Case Study on Communication and Innovation: Brazil
Source: Euromonitor International
Chart 8 ICT Environment and Innovation in Brazil
Source: Euromonitor International from UNCTAD/Eurostat/ITU/WEF
Note: Networked Readiness Ranking (NRR) 2011 is out of 138 nations and NRR 2016 is out of 138 nations EDUCATION AND SKILLS
Skill Shortage Is A Key Challenge
Higher education rate is rising, but was the second lowest regionally in 2016:
▪While Brazil’s higher education rate continuously rose over 2011-2016, it still stood as the second lowest regionally in 2016, as a large proportion of Brazilians cannot afford to pay for higher education;
▪Brain drain is somewhat a problem, but Brazil’s resilience during the 2008-2009 global
financial crisis has helped ease it. The low quality educational system continues to generate
skills shortages that are most evident for positions like doctors and engineers, hampering innovation in its high-tech industries.
Chart 9 Education and Skills in Brazil
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN/Eurostat/OECD/UNESCO
Note: PISA stands for Programme for International Student Assessment
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOUR COSTS
Youth Unemployment Rate Surged To Reach A Record High Level in 2016
Brazil has a very rigid labour market, due to its tough hiring and firing procedures:
▪Huge layoffs across sectors caused the unemployment rate to reach its highest level in more than a decade in 2016 and the youth unemployment rate to reach its record high level of
28.9% in 2016;
▪Despite continuous decline, both wage per hour and in manufacturing ranked amongst the highest regionally in 2016, adversely impacting the competitiveness of Brazil’s manufacturing and services sectors. Conversely, the country’s mo nthly minimum wage stood relatively low in 2016, but the government recently increased it to BRL937 (US$288) in 2017 from BRL880 (US$270) in 2016;
▪Powerful and well-organised labour unions have led to lack of flexibility in wage determination. Chart 10 An Overview of the Labour Market in Brazil
Source: Euromonitor International from ILO/Eurostat/national statistics/World Bank
Note: (1) ‘Wholesale and Retail Trade’ includes Repair of Motor Vehicles, Personal and Household Goods;
(2) ‘Financial Intermediation’ includes Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities;
(3) ‘Undefined sectors’ refers to activities not adequately defined elsewhere in the other categories REGIONAL COMPARISON
Chart 11 Chart 11 Overview of Regional Comparison
Source: Euromonitor International from International from International Monetary Fund (IMF)/International Financial Statistics/ International Labour Organisation (ILO)/Eurostat/national statistics/World Economic
Forum/World Bank。