1997年考研英语阅读5翻译

97年的第5篇阅读文章，自出现后六年内未曾改变模式，因而也成为考研英语中的一个模范样本。

03改革后的文章也是如出一辙。

1997年考研英语阅读Passage 5
Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as “steering the economy to a soft landing”or “a touch on the brakes”, makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
很多语言用来形容货币政策，诸如“引导经济软着陆”和“触动经济刹车”，使得货币政策听起来像一门精准的科学。

没有什么可以远离真相（事实远非如此）。

利率和通胀之间的关系是不能确定的。

在货币政策在经济上产生影响前会有一个长而多的时间间隔。

因此才会有人把货币政策的运营比作是驾驶一辆带有黑色挡风玻璃、后视镜破裂和方向盘失灵的汽车。

Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
尽管有如上不利因素，中心银行家们似乎对近来的形势出现了许多需要吹嘘的东西。

去年在七大工业经济的平均通胀跌至近2.3％，在五月份稍稍回升至2.5％之前，接近了三十年的最低值。

这远远低于许多
国家在七十年代和八十年代早期经历的两位数的通胀率。

It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
这同样也比很多预言家所估测的要低。

94年末，经济学家刊物每月对经济学专家咨询组的民意调查表明美国的通胀率在95年的平均值将保持在3.5％。

事实上，它在八月就跌至了2.6％，整年平均仅仅有望保留在3％。

在英国和日本的通胀比上年末预计的走低半个百分点。

过去多年来，通胀情况一直比英美预测的要低，这种情况不是昙花一现。

Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilisation, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
经济学家们尤其为英美乐观的通胀数据感到惊讶，由于传统的计量方法显示在双方经济上，尤其是美国的，没有任何生产萧条的时候。

比如美国的产能利用率，在当年冲击了最高的历史水平，它的失业率跌至了预估自然失业率下限之下——在过去失业率的下跌将带来通胀的腾飞。

Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
为什么通胀如此的和缓？可惜的是，这令人震惊的解释有一点缺陷。

一些经济学家认为，这个世界性的强有力的结构转变，已经结束了建立在增长和通胀的历史关系基础上的旧的经济模式。