宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(英文版)(PPT 66页)
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• Nigeria, Iraq, Pakistan, and the Congo are projected to have population growth rates greater than 2% per year over the next generation
Figure 5.3 - Expected Population Growth Rates, 1997-2015
Premodern Economic “Growth”
• Thomas R. Malthus
• first academic professor of economics • introduced the idea that increases in technology inevitably
run into natural resource scarcity
The Demographic Transition
• As material standards of living rise far above subsistence, countries undergo a demographic transition
• birth rates rise • death rates fall • birth rates fall
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
• Growth slowed slightly during the Great Depression and World War II
• 1.4 percent per year from 1929 to 1950
• Growth accelerated from 1950 to 1973
CHAPTER 5
The Reality of Economic Growth: History and Prospect
Questions
• What is modern economic growth? • What was the post-1973 productivity slowdown?
• English became the world’s de facto second language
The Industrial Revolution
• The new technologies were not confined to Great Britain
• spread rapidly to western Europe and the United States • spread less rapidly to southern and eastern Europe and
• What policies can make economic growth faster? • What are the prospects for successful and rapid
economic development in tomorrow’s world?
Looking Back into Deep Time
• Over time, the rate of technological progress rose
• by 1500, it was sufficiently high so that natural resource scarcity could not surpass it
• sustained increases in the population and the productivity of labor followed
Figure 5.2 - Stylized Picture of the Demographic Transition
The Demographic Transition
• In the world today, not all countries have gone through their demographic transitions
Table 5.3 - The Magnitude of the Post-1973 Productivity Slowdown in the G-7 Economies
American Economic Growth Since 1973
• Suggested causes of the productivity slowdown include
Figure 5.6 - Measured Real Mean Household Income, by Quintile
American Economic Growth Since 1973
• Since 1995, productivity growth in the U.S. has accelerated to a pace of 2.1 percent per year
• Growth accelerated further in the early part of the twentieth century
• a second wave of industrialization occurred from new inventions and innovations
• population growth accelerated • output per capita grew
Table 5.1 - Economic Growth through Deep Time
Figure 5.1 - World Population Growth since 1000
• environmental protection measures • increased problems of economic measurement • the baby boom generation • the tripling of world oil prices in 1973
American Economic Growth Since 1973
• Between 1973 and 1995 measured output per worker grew at only 0.6 percent per year
• The other major industrial economies in western Europe, Japan and Canada also experienced a slowdown in productivity
• What were its causes? • Is the productivity slowdown now over?
• Why are some nations so (ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้elatively) rich and other nations so (relatively) poor?
Questions
• implies that increases in technology lead to an increase in the size of the population but not to an increase in the standard of living
The End of the Malthusian Age
• The actual cause of the productivity slowdown remains a mystery
American Economic Growth Since 1973
• Slower economic growth has made Americans feel much less well off than they had expected that they would be
• national income accountants have a hard time valuing the boost to productivity and standards of living generated by new inventions
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
practices were adopted
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
• The U.S. became the world’s leader (in terms of technology) during the twentieth century because
Figure 5.3 - Expected Population Growth Rates, 1997-2015
The Industrial Revolution
• The industrial revolution began the era of modern economic growth
• new technological leaps revolutionized industries and generated major improvements in living standards
• Great Britain was the center of the industrial revolution
Figure 5.5 - U.S. Measured Economic Growth: Real GDP per Worker 1995 Prices, 1890-1995
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
• Many economists believe that official estimates of output per worker overstate inflation and understate real economic growth by 1 percent per year
• for some workers, the post-1973 productivity slowdown has been accompanied by stagnant or declining real wages
• increased income inequality has also occurred
• the U.S. had an exceptional commitment to education • the U.S. was the largest market in the world • the U.S. was extraordinarily rich in natural resources
Japan
Figure 5.4 - Industrialized Areas of the World, 1870
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
• Growth in the second half of the nineteenth century was faster than it had been in the first half
• Structural changes also occurred
• large drop in the proportion of the labor force working as farmers occurred
• new methods of travel were developed • large number of innovative technologies and business
• Up until 1500, there had been almost zero growth of output per worker
• After 1800, we see large sustained increases in worldwide standards of living
Figure 5.3 - Expected Population Growth Rates, 1997-2015
Premodern Economic “Growth”
• Thomas R. Malthus
• first academic professor of economics • introduced the idea that increases in technology inevitably
run into natural resource scarcity
The Demographic Transition
• As material standards of living rise far above subsistence, countries undergo a demographic transition
• birth rates rise • death rates fall • birth rates fall
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
• Growth slowed slightly during the Great Depression and World War II
• 1.4 percent per year from 1929 to 1950
• Growth accelerated from 1950 to 1973
CHAPTER 5
The Reality of Economic Growth: History and Prospect
Questions
• What is modern economic growth? • What was the post-1973 productivity slowdown?
• English became the world’s de facto second language
The Industrial Revolution
• The new technologies were not confined to Great Britain
• spread rapidly to western Europe and the United States • spread less rapidly to southern and eastern Europe and
• What policies can make economic growth faster? • What are the prospects for successful and rapid
economic development in tomorrow’s world?
Looking Back into Deep Time
• Over time, the rate of technological progress rose
• by 1500, it was sufficiently high so that natural resource scarcity could not surpass it
• sustained increases in the population and the productivity of labor followed
Figure 5.2 - Stylized Picture of the Demographic Transition
The Demographic Transition
• In the world today, not all countries have gone through their demographic transitions
Table 5.3 - The Magnitude of the Post-1973 Productivity Slowdown in the G-7 Economies
American Economic Growth Since 1973
• Suggested causes of the productivity slowdown include
Figure 5.6 - Measured Real Mean Household Income, by Quintile
American Economic Growth Since 1973
• Since 1995, productivity growth in the U.S. has accelerated to a pace of 2.1 percent per year
• Growth accelerated further in the early part of the twentieth century
• a second wave of industrialization occurred from new inventions and innovations
• population growth accelerated • output per capita grew
Table 5.1 - Economic Growth through Deep Time
Figure 5.1 - World Population Growth since 1000
• environmental protection measures • increased problems of economic measurement • the baby boom generation • the tripling of world oil prices in 1973
American Economic Growth Since 1973
• Between 1973 and 1995 measured output per worker grew at only 0.6 percent per year
• The other major industrial economies in western Europe, Japan and Canada also experienced a slowdown in productivity
• What were its causes? • Is the productivity slowdown now over?
• Why are some nations so (ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้elatively) rich and other nations so (relatively) poor?
Questions
• implies that increases in technology lead to an increase in the size of the population but not to an increase in the standard of living
The End of the Malthusian Age
• The actual cause of the productivity slowdown remains a mystery
American Economic Growth Since 1973
• Slower economic growth has made Americans feel much less well off than they had expected that they would be
• national income accountants have a hard time valuing the boost to productivity and standards of living generated by new inventions
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
practices were adopted
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
• The U.S. became the world’s leader (in terms of technology) during the twentieth century because
Figure 5.3 - Expected Population Growth Rates, 1997-2015
The Industrial Revolution
• The industrial revolution began the era of modern economic growth
• new technological leaps revolutionized industries and generated major improvements in living standards
• Great Britain was the center of the industrial revolution
Figure 5.5 - U.S. Measured Economic Growth: Real GDP per Worker 1995 Prices, 1890-1995
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
• Many economists believe that official estimates of output per worker overstate inflation and understate real economic growth by 1 percent per year
• for some workers, the post-1973 productivity slowdown has been accompanied by stagnant or declining real wages
• increased income inequality has also occurred
• the U.S. had an exceptional commitment to education • the U.S. was the largest market in the world • the U.S. was extraordinarily rich in natural resources
Japan
Figure 5.4 - Industrialized Areas of the World, 1870
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
• Growth in the second half of the nineteenth century was faster than it had been in the first half
• Structural changes also occurred
• large drop in the proportion of the labor force working as farmers occurred
• new methods of travel were developed • large number of innovative technologies and business
• Up until 1500, there had been almost zero growth of output per worker
• After 1800, we see large sustained increases in worldwide standards of living