金立群接受BBC采访英文字幕
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金立群接受BBC 采访字幕
Welcome to Hard Talk from Beijing, I’m Stephen Sackur. Since the financial meltdown of 2008, China has been the key driver of global economical growth. And here in Beijing, it’s easy to see how China’s grand command of capitalism has transformed the infrastructure, generated unprecedented wealth.
Visit any Beijing shopping mall and you’ll see China is fast becoming a consumer society. This is where those with cash to splash conduct their love affair with luxury.
Correspondent: “How do yo u feel about the Chinese economy right now?”
Citizen: “I think that China grows very fast and it’s very good. because, I now, already go to 45 years old. When I was young, Beijing was not like this. Beijing was really very quiet; it’s like a traditional place, very small house, small street. For me on one side I’m very happy because it becomes very modern, you can get everything what you can (want) if you have money, but one the other side, I’m a little sad because it (has) lost some cultures. ”
Corresp ondent: “Yes, do you fell confident that this growth in Beijing and China can continue? “
Citizen: “Yes. I’m very confident about that. ”
The gap between the rich and the poor in this country is wider than ever before. And no doubt the biggest winners in this society profit
from their access to power. Cronyism and corruption threaten to have a corrosive impact on public perceptions of China’s rulers.
Citizen: “If you wanna have a good job or like you have a better life, you have to know people, that’s my perspective. You have to know people to help you to get way up, or you work really really really hard like you have no life for yourself and then maybe you can get a better position if you’re lucky. So, you definitely have to have connection, it’s a ne twork, you know human net work here. It all depends on who you know. ”
Correspondent: “And apparently a lot bit is to do with the Party and also people around the party who have the money.”
Citizen: “Yes, absolutely, it’s all about the game of power an d the money. so, you know, if you have money you can have some power, if you have power you can have a lot f money.”
Ultimately, China’s stability and the supremacy of Communist Party depend on, well, the soundness of the economic foundations here and
right now, confidence is giving way to insecurity.And the heart of it is a fear of a debt-driven property bubble. If that debt turns toxic, then the whole world economy will feel the impact. I guess today is leading Chinese rancher Jin Liqun. How worried, should we all be, about Chinese economy?
From his 38 floor, executive’s wit, Mr Jin has a bird’s eye view of Beijing’s unstoppable growth. “30 years ago, it’s(was) an suburban area…which (was) virtually nothing. ”
If he is worried, he highestly will.
Jin Liqun, welcome to Hard Talk.
Thank you.
China is in a transitional phase, no longer the economy committed
to breakneck, double DG growth, looking for path to sustainability. But that is not an easy transition to make, isn’t it?.
Of course, I would rather say the transition would be tough, formidable, daunting. You can have different kind of adjectives to describe this. It’s really tough after almost two decades of fast growth. We really need do some restructuring in a very serious way.
Gorge Solons, one of the most important global investors, has lost faith in China. He says that Chinese growth model has—to use his
phrase —run out of steam.
Well, first of all, I would say China is a country which defies prediction. I remember many years ago, right after the outbreak of Asian financial crisis, the Economist has (have) a cover——photo or it’s a picture ——with a big boat about to sink, and that’s China--didn’t happen. And also after the outbreak of this financial crisis, some people predicted that Chinese economy would be losing steam and we would be suffering major setbacks in our growth--it didn’t happen. You know why? Because the Chinese growth pattern is not something static, it’s dynamic. We change, we adapt.
Well you have to change and adapt (be)cause you have some very obvious problems. Right now, I think many people in this city, Beijing, are particularly focused one problem which comes out of the old economic model and that is massive industrious pollution which produces the smog that overha ngs the city right now. It’s a product of economic growth which has been dirty. How do you change it?
This could be resolved. As you know, the Chinese government has declared war on pollution as it declared war on poverty 20 years ago. And if you looked at the history of the western countries, this smog,
this kind of thing was pretty common, and London was actually a case in point. But this kind of problems will (be) resolved in the course of economic and social development and we are very much confident we can handle that.
Well, why you are so confident when the Chinese government set out rules, for example, rules about closing certain sectors of industry, shutting off traffic and closing schools if pollutions reach certain levels. And when pollution reached certain levels just weeks ago, those rules were ignored and the public was infuriated.
In some cases, yes. That is why it’s very tough to keep environmental standard intact when we move forward in … continuing the growth…in… I would say pushing for ward the transmission of the economy. But let me tell you this. You know, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect every locality, every local government, and every institution to come up to standard at the same time. Violations of the rules would happen, but I am sure we would toughen up our stunts on this issue.
Perhaps a less visible way in which there is deep concern about
this status quo with economy is--moving away from pollution-- is an invisible problem, and that is of a rotten core to the system of finance that is, a massive problem of debt in the shadow banking system, as it
is called, which again threatens to undermine Chinese economic stability. Is there a danger of a toxic debt crisis in China today?
I don’t think so. I think the debt level is a big issue. We need
to deal with the debt
problems in a very serious manner. But I don’t think there is an impending debt crisis in China. Let me give you the reasons why this is not going to happen. First of all, it’s wrong to talk categorically about the debt. Most of the debt incurred by the local government during this period happened in the coastal areas. And those governments are pretty good in dealing with this kind of issues because, first of all, these are fast growing area, and the government coffer is pretty pretty strong, so they can handle that. But if you go down to the very low
levels of the government, if you go to the western part of the country, which is not as that advanced, I think debt burden could be a big issue. Now, how can we han dle that? First of all, it’s very important to curb the new debt. We shall not allow it to blow up. But we have to differentiate between the different kind of investments on the basis of this debt crisis. If the project financed by the debt is a good one, allow it to be completed. If there are some projects which are really bad, you can shut it down. Now, if you look at the central government, our budget deficit is very very low, 2.1%. xxx(09:44) even though we are not part of it. And economy would be going forward; we would be generating new resources to deal with this. So, if you notice this kind
of factors that the government would keep the economy going and we would curtail the continued growth of the debt, and we’ll take a step-by- step approach to deal with that, the crisis would (be) not happen. If it’s not handled well, (it) could be a real crisis.
Is it time for a state in this country to radically disengage from the economy, from all of the key economic lives including the financial system, manufacturing, production because right now, the state is in the thick of everything.
The word “radically” may not be the right word. But I would say steady progress towards the redefinition of the role of the government and the role of business. Ok, I can not predict what’s going to happen—20, 30 years down the road—but I’m pretty sure, as you can see from the decision making of the central government, the third pattern’s decision the government would keep an arm’s length with these business operations. The government role would be redefined and the market would play a decisive role—all this indicates that government would keep its hands off the operations of the business.
Well, accept, you know, people have talked about this sort of change for a long time now in China, and yet the latest Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom Report has China in 137th place. They talk of a continued overreliance on public investment, they talk of the Party’s dominance within the economic systems, which they say undermines the rule of the law, leaves the judicial system highly vulnerable to political influence and corruption. I mean that is the reality today.
You know, 30 years ago, if anybody tells you what’s going to happen in China, what would have been done given a particular timeframe. Probably, a lot of people would not believe it. If you look at China today, and compare to China 30 years ago. It was such a drastic change. Now, after 30 years of reform, we certainly have accumulated a lot of problems which you’ve referred to: corruption’s a big issue.
How big in your view?
I think it’s very hard to quantify. But I would like to say, the government is very, very serious cracking down on corruption. As you can see, the new leadership takes it
very seriously. An d now I’m very much, you know, confident we can deal with this problem
But the problem is that the leadership itself is a part of the problem. I mean the Financial Times just last year ran this fascinating analysis of the legislatures in China—the Nation al People’s Congress, the Consultative Committees. And there are more billionaires at the top of Chinese political fields than any other countries in the world and this is supposedly a Communist system, what you have here is power and money married together.
You know, I would like to say you have to differentiate between leadership and individual members in the leadership. You have to differentiate the Chinese Communist Party, the Chinese government from individuals who serve in this Party, in this government. Now, you can say, I agree with you that the corruption is a serious issue, that some of the problems have to be done very seriously. But you see, in the
course of development we have shifted it from this commanding economy 30 years ago under that kin d of system, there was nothing …virtually nothing for people to lay their hands on and the new system based on market economy, I think it’s not a surprise but you have to look at the decisiveness and determination of the new leadership in cracking down corruption.
Well, we’ll judge them on results, won’t we? cause they have said a thing. President Xi Jinping developed this phrase. He said, you know, “we are going after the tigers as well as the flies within the system.” Well, you know, there are, I think, tens of thousands of officials who’ve been disciplined for graft, there are ten thousand apparently who’ve been fired form their jobs but these are mostly flies Ok, not necessarily flies. I think the ministers, governors are pretty senior officials.
Here is a serious point. One activist campaigner called for every senior member of Communist Party to be fully transparent about their own personal assets. And you know what happened to him? He got locked up.
I’m not very clear about this. But let me ask yo u one question. How many governments in this world who could be so decisive in ending corruption? How many countries in this world could tell the rest of the world we have put so many people in prison because of corruption? This happens only in China. And if you look at a number of developed countries in early stage of industrialization, corruption was rampant. But if you could do this, why not China? And I firmly believe that this new leadership is really really serious about that. Ok. You can not have a whole bunch of innocents called, you know, tigers. Tigers are more or
less limited. But you can also say that senior leaders, both in the government and party, are also a big problem for us to deal with.
But in the end it seems the Party will tell the people it is going to clean out the stable. It’s gonna tackle corruption just as it’s tackling, as we discussed, the pollution issue. But what it will not allow and will never allow is a challenge to its own supremacy. And surely as China develops and transit ions, that has to come too. doesn’t it?
Probably I think the outside world may not understand fully the operations of the
Chinese system. First of all, at this stage, most of the Chinese people acknowledge the Communist Party should be the leading party, because most of the talents are in this party. I’m very much proud to be associated with this party—I’m one of the member(s), ok I’ve been devoting my life……
Wait, you’ve been, If may say so, you’ve been a huge beneficial, you’ve been a winner from th e system. I understand why you feel a debt of gratitude and loyalty to the party. And I guess there are some in China who don’t feel that way about the party. The point is, they are not able, they are not allowed to express an alterative view, a view which says we no longer want one party system, we want a multi-party system, we want to vote for people who want kick the communists out. They are not allowed to do that. Well, there is another developing country, a comparable maybe--India . They almost certainly are allowed to kick out the powers if they feel they haven’t done their job.
I’m not surprised if you tell me there are some Chinese who want
to kick out the Communist Party. But I can tell you the Communist Party enjoys the broadest support of the people, otherwise I would not have harmony and peace in this country, otherwise we are not able to implement all these policies. But we have to define democracy in different way. Democracy is not something for the people to enjoy, simply going to the ballot box. Beyond the ballot box, you have nothing to do. In China, we may not, at this moment, have everybody going to the ballot box. But beyond the ballot box, the decision making is not simply the privilege of the top leadership. Look at the twin conferences. I do wish you could understand Chinese. If you read all these bloggers or the newspapers or something, all those predictions and critical comments are really very very sharp. Can you imagine that in a country which is supposed not to be democratic, which are certainly with dispute (in)
this concept, how can, in a non-democracy, the people can raise so many sharp questions, critical comments, criticize government from down to top?
They can do that as long as they don’t cross the line and as long as they cross that line and seen to be challenging the party itself, their access to the internet, and indeed their access to freedom, is cut off.
Now I would say I’m not defending this. But I’m going to tell you one very important point. In a country at particular stage, people would not really enjoy very good life, would not really enjoy peace, prospect if the country is thrown into chaos. The Communist Party of China made mistakes in the history particularly in the late 50s, 60s, during the Cultural Revolution, but the Communist Party had the guts to acknowledge
we did something wrong and we wanted to correct all those problems. This is what Party did over the last three decades. So, it’s really true the Communist Party enjoys broad support of the people, otherwise we can not have this kind of thing, we can not have this kind of talk in my office.
I had a very interesting discussion on similar themes in the office of Indian finance minister only a couple of weeks ago. As I said to him: “Look, you know, you fai led on all sorts of counts compared with China. China’s infrastructure, China’s nature of urbanization, China’s
lifting of people out of poverty—So much more successful than yours in India. ”And you know what he said to me? He said:
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