一封1901年的来信

一封1901年的来信
2013年9月，苹果已故创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯埋藏近30年的“时间胶囊（Time Capsule）”重见天日，虽比约定挖掘的时间晚了10年，但却如时空穿梭般让人见识了30年前的电子产品，也让时间胶囊走进更多人的视线，得到了更多人的关注和探寻。

2014年10月，人们在波士顿老州议会大厦的一尊狮像里发现了一个距今已有一百多年的时间胶囊，不过这颗时间胶囊里装的却是一些信件、报纸和照片等。

虽无电子产品，但通过先人留下的信件，我们亦可以“穿梭”回19世纪初，去看看那时的人们对20世纪都曾有过哪些期待。

It is much easier to say what has been than what will be. It is no evidence of special wisdom that we are able to utter this truism1），nevertheless the past is，in a measure2），an index of the future. If we know what the 19th century has accomplished for the world，we may fairly assume that the 20th century will not do less.
The seer3），looking out from his point of observation at the dawning of the 19th century，might have seen more remarkable changes in prospect4）than had ever been witnessed by the human race since the dawning of the Christian era5）. Then the necessities of man were supplied as the result of hand labor. Now the hand simply guides the machinery in almost every branch of human toil6）. We do not think by
machinery，but thought has produced the machinery that does for us almost everything，except thinking.
The farmer rides upon his steam plow；he sows his seed，he
hoes7）his corn，he cuts his grass，he gathers his crops，he threshes8）his grains，he fertilizes his fields，all by machinery. We cross the seas，we compass9）all lands，we annihilate10）distance，we girdle11）the earth，by steam and electricity. The wild flights of the imagination of Jules Verne12）have been surpassed by the reality of sub-marine navigation.
And now we look out upon this new century，and what wonders will it reveal？He would be a bold venturer who should dare to limit its possibilities. Long before it completes its cycle，steam will have given place to other motive power not yet discovered. Electricity will have revealed new worlds of scientific wonder. Air and water will have given up their secrets，and from one or the other，or both，we shall obtain our motive power，our heat，our light，our medicine，and all these without the intervention of any other medium. We shall speak around the world. We shall see the face of him with whom we talk. We shall navigate the depths of oceans for pleasure as well as for war-like and commercial purposes. We shall fly；not merely navigate the air with
cumbersome13）machinery sustained by bags of gas，but we shall step from our houses，and at our convenience or pleasure “mount up on
wings as eagles，run and not be weary，walk and not faint". Before the midway of the century shall have been reached distant worlds will be communicating with us，and we shall know the mysteries of the spheres. Let us hope，also，that the "lion and the lamb shall lie down together，and a little child shall lead them"，and that the "nations shall learn war no more".
George A. Litchfield
Business Manager，Boston Traveler
畅谈过去总比预言未来容易得多。

道理不言自明，不需要有过人的智慧就可以脱口而出。

然而，在一定程度上，过去却能指示未来。

若我们知道19世纪都取得了哪些成就，或许就不难推断，20世纪也会不相上下。

19世纪伊始，先知通过观察展望未来，他所看到的未来巨变可能比自公元纪年伊始以来历代人所目睹的巨变还要多。

过去，人类生活必需品的供应全都依赖手工劳作。

现在，人手的作用只是操纵几乎遍布各行各业的机械。

我们不靠机械思考，但思考却创造出几乎无所不能（思考除外）的机械。

农民驾着蒸汽犁垦田；播种、锄地、除草、收割、脱粒、施肥也全靠机械完成。

我们借助蒸汽和电力，越过海洋，跨过所有陆地，消除距离，畅行全球。

潜水艇已经实现海底航行（编注：儒勒.凡尔纳在《海底两万里》中就提到利用潜水艇周游海底），远远领先于儒勒.凡尔纳所设想的那些疯狂的飞行（编注：比如《从地球到月球》中提到的利用炮弹飞行等）。

现在，我们展望接下来的新世纪，它会展现什么样的奇迹呢？新世纪潜能无限，想要列数，实属妄举。

在蒸汽的生命还未走到尽头之前，蒸汽就会被我们目前尚未发现的其他动力所替代。

电力将会创造出一个科学奇迹无所不在的新世界。

人们将会揭开空气和水的奥秘，从两者之一或是两者中获得动力、热、光、药品，而所有这些东西都不再需要依赖任何其他媒介。

世界各地的人们将能通话联络，还能看到对方的样子。

人们将会出于玩乐而探索深海，亦如出于军事或商业目的那样。

人们将翱翔蓝天，但不再仅仅依靠通过气袋维持运作的笨重机器，而是从家门口就能按自己的心意方便地“如鹰展翅上腾，奔跑却不困倦，行走却不疲乏”（编注：源自《圣经》第23卷《以赛亚书》）。

下世纪中叶到来之前，人们将同遥远的地外星球取得联系，将会探知宇宙的奥秘。

我们也希望，到那时“狮子和羊羔同卧，小孩子要牵引它们”（编注：源自《以赛亚书》），也希望“各国不再习武练兵”（编注：源自《以赛亚书》）。