微观经济学行为制度和演化
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Walrasian paradigm in economics (Prologue, 1)
• Economic man and social preferences: experiments, new preference functions, and mechanism design (3, JPubE)
• Is the Walrasian (neoclassical) paradigm adequate to this task?
Walrasian (neoclassical) economics
• A paradigm (school) is characterized by what it teaches its students and th assumptions that are necessary and sufficient for its main results. The Walrasian paradigm is characterized by
• I would be happy to amend this programme
Related papers at: /~bowles
• "Walrasian Economics in Retrospect." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115:4, 2000 with H.Gintis
• Complete contracts: enforceable at low cost by Leon Walras third parties
• Absence (or nearly so) of economies of scale • Economic man: exogenous, self regarding
$5,000
50%
40%
30%
$4,000
20%
10%
0%
$3,000
1000 1061 1122 1181 1242 1303 1365 1426 1487 1547 1608 1669 1731 1792 1853 1912 1973
Two Millennia of World GDP Per Capita
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
From Bowles, Edwards and Roosevelt, Understanding Capitalism: Competition, Command, and Change, Oxford U Press, 2019
Real Wage Index
1.0%
6000
0.5%
5000
0.0%
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
4000
3000
2000 First Development Of Agriculture
1000
Advent of Capitalism
0 BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- 450 950 1450 1950 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 4550 4050 3550 3050 2550 2050 1550 1050 550 50
160000
100 140000 90
80 70 120000 60 50
campfire: 1
Improvements in Lighting technology from 25000 BCE
Early Lighting Technology
Paraffin Candles :80
Animal Fat Lamps: 20
• What should microeconomic theory be a theory of ?
• Most of the people in the world are poor, so if we knew the economics of being poor we would know much of the economics that really matters.
Capitalism and the Population Explosion
10000
The Demographic Transition
9000
3.0%
Spread of Modern Medicine
2.5%
8000
2.0%
Projected 2050: 9 Biห้องสมุดไป่ตู้lion
7000
1.5% Industrial Revolution
1998 Value: $5,709
Asia The West
Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe
1990 international dollars
$2,000
$1,000
$444
$435
$565
$667
$0 1
153 306 457 610 763 913 1066 1217 1370 1522 1675 1828 1979
Year A.D.
From Bowles, Edwards and Roosevelt, Understanding Capitalism: Competition, Command, and Change, Oxford U Press, 2019
Millions Average Annual Growth Rate
From Bowles, Edwards and Roosevelt, Understanding Capitalism: Competition, Command, and Change, Oxford U Press, 2019
• “Persistent Parochialism: the Dynamics of Trust and Exclusion in Networks,” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 55, 2019, with Gintis
• “Social preferences and public economics: mechanism design when preferneces depend on incentives,” Journal of Public Economics, 2019, forthcoming (with S-H Hwang)
Lorenzetti, Aspects of Good Government, 14 th century Siena
Lectures at Fudan University on The Economics of Behavior, Institutions, and Evolution • The dynamics of capitalism and the emergence of a post
Lectures at Fudan University on The Economics of Behavior, Institutions, and Evolution
Samuel Bowles, /~bowles University of Siena/ Santa Fe Institute
Electric Carbon Lamp:3200
Early Fluorescent Lamp: 20000
20000
Paraffin Candles:80
Whale Oil Lamps: 160
Kerosene Lamps: 200
0 1725
1750
1775
1800
1825
1850
1875
Year
• “Policies designed for self interested citizens may undermine the ‘moral sentiments’” Science, 2019 forthcoming.
• "Group competition, reproductive leveling and the evolution of human altruism." Science, 314, 2019.
• The co-evolution of preferences and institutions: agentbased modeling of group selection (13)
• Parochial altruism and war (and summing up) (Science 07)
Sesame Oil Lamps:40
Modern Fluorescent Lamp: 143000
100000 40 30
20 80000 10
60000 40000
0
-25050 -22825 -20600 -18375 -16150 -13925 -11700 -9475 -7250 -5025 -2800 -575 1650
Schultz, T.W. (1980), “Nobel Lecture: The Economics of Being Poor,” Journal of Political Economy 88,4:639651.
• The primary task to economic theory (in my view) is to understand (really existing) capitalism and its evolution (not economic systems generically, not abstract principles of optimal use of resources)
preferences • What are the ‘big facts’ about capitalist
dynamics that this theory should explain?
Ratio of light/ unit energy compared to llight/unit energy of campfires
• “In Search of Homo economicus: Behavioral Experiments in 15 Simple Societies” American Economic Review. 91,2(2019 )(with R. Boyd, C. Camerer, E. Fehr, H. Gintis, et al.).
• nstitutional dynamics: the emergence of private propety (within- and between-group selection dynamics) (2,11)
• Institutional persistence and innovation: stochastic evolutionary game theory (application of Young’) (12)
Capitalism and Wages 1264-1999
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
0 1264 1299 1334 1369 1404 1439 1474 1509 1544 1579 1614 1649 1684 1719 1754 1789 1824 1859 1894 1929 1964 1999
• “The co-evolution of parochial altruism and war,” Science, 319 (2019) with Jung-Kyoo Choi.
• My email: samuel.bowlesgmail
Capitalism and economic theory
From Bowles, Edwards and Roosevelt, Understanding Capitalism: Competition, Command, and Change, Oxford U Press, 2019
$6,000
80%
70%
Share of World GDP
60%
• Economic man and social preferences: experiments, new preference functions, and mechanism design (3, JPubE)
• Is the Walrasian (neoclassical) paradigm adequate to this task?
Walrasian (neoclassical) economics
• A paradigm (school) is characterized by what it teaches its students and th assumptions that are necessary and sufficient for its main results. The Walrasian paradigm is characterized by
• I would be happy to amend this programme
Related papers at: /~bowles
• "Walrasian Economics in Retrospect." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115:4, 2000 with H.Gintis
• Complete contracts: enforceable at low cost by Leon Walras third parties
• Absence (or nearly so) of economies of scale • Economic man: exogenous, self regarding
$5,000
50%
40%
30%
$4,000
20%
10%
0%
$3,000
1000 1061 1122 1181 1242 1303 1365 1426 1487 1547 1608 1669 1731 1792 1853 1912 1973
Two Millennia of World GDP Per Capita
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
From Bowles, Edwards and Roosevelt, Understanding Capitalism: Competition, Command, and Change, Oxford U Press, 2019
Real Wage Index
1.0%
6000
0.5%
5000
0.0%
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
4000
3000
2000 First Development Of Agriculture
1000
Advent of Capitalism
0 BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- BC- 450 950 1450 1950 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 4550 4050 3550 3050 2550 2050 1550 1050 550 50
160000
100 140000 90
80 70 120000 60 50
campfire: 1
Improvements in Lighting technology from 25000 BCE
Early Lighting Technology
Paraffin Candles :80
Animal Fat Lamps: 20
• What should microeconomic theory be a theory of ?
• Most of the people in the world are poor, so if we knew the economics of being poor we would know much of the economics that really matters.
Capitalism and the Population Explosion
10000
The Demographic Transition
9000
3.0%
Spread of Modern Medicine
2.5%
8000
2.0%
Projected 2050: 9 Biห้องสมุดไป่ตู้lion
7000
1.5% Industrial Revolution
1998 Value: $5,709
Asia The West
Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe
1990 international dollars
$2,000
$1,000
$444
$435
$565
$667
$0 1
153 306 457 610 763 913 1066 1217 1370 1522 1675 1828 1979
Year A.D.
From Bowles, Edwards and Roosevelt, Understanding Capitalism: Competition, Command, and Change, Oxford U Press, 2019
Millions Average Annual Growth Rate
From Bowles, Edwards and Roosevelt, Understanding Capitalism: Competition, Command, and Change, Oxford U Press, 2019
• “Persistent Parochialism: the Dynamics of Trust and Exclusion in Networks,” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 55, 2019, with Gintis
• “Social preferences and public economics: mechanism design when preferneces depend on incentives,” Journal of Public Economics, 2019, forthcoming (with S-H Hwang)
Lorenzetti, Aspects of Good Government, 14 th century Siena
Lectures at Fudan University on The Economics of Behavior, Institutions, and Evolution • The dynamics of capitalism and the emergence of a post
Lectures at Fudan University on The Economics of Behavior, Institutions, and Evolution
Samuel Bowles, /~bowles University of Siena/ Santa Fe Institute
Electric Carbon Lamp:3200
Early Fluorescent Lamp: 20000
20000
Paraffin Candles:80
Whale Oil Lamps: 160
Kerosene Lamps: 200
0 1725
1750
1775
1800
1825
1850
1875
Year
• “Policies designed for self interested citizens may undermine the ‘moral sentiments’” Science, 2019 forthcoming.
• "Group competition, reproductive leveling and the evolution of human altruism." Science, 314, 2019.
• The co-evolution of preferences and institutions: agentbased modeling of group selection (13)
• Parochial altruism and war (and summing up) (Science 07)
Sesame Oil Lamps:40
Modern Fluorescent Lamp: 143000
100000 40 30
20 80000 10
60000 40000
0
-25050 -22825 -20600 -18375 -16150 -13925 -11700 -9475 -7250 -5025 -2800 -575 1650
Schultz, T.W. (1980), “Nobel Lecture: The Economics of Being Poor,” Journal of Political Economy 88,4:639651.
• The primary task to economic theory (in my view) is to understand (really existing) capitalism and its evolution (not economic systems generically, not abstract principles of optimal use of resources)
preferences • What are the ‘big facts’ about capitalist
dynamics that this theory should explain?
Ratio of light/ unit energy compared to llight/unit energy of campfires
• “In Search of Homo economicus: Behavioral Experiments in 15 Simple Societies” American Economic Review. 91,2(2019 )(with R. Boyd, C. Camerer, E. Fehr, H. Gintis, et al.).
• nstitutional dynamics: the emergence of private propety (within- and between-group selection dynamics) (2,11)
• Institutional persistence and innovation: stochastic evolutionary game theory (application of Young’) (12)
Capitalism and Wages 1264-1999
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
0 1264 1299 1334 1369 1404 1439 1474 1509 1544 1579 1614 1649 1684 1719 1754 1789 1824 1859 1894 1929 1964 1999
• “The co-evolution of parochial altruism and war,” Science, 319 (2019) with Jung-Kyoo Choi.
• My email: samuel.bowlesgmail
Capitalism and economic theory
From Bowles, Edwards and Roosevelt, Understanding Capitalism: Competition, Command, and Change, Oxford U Press, 2019
$6,000
80%
70%
Share of World GDP
60%