关于（模糊）断点回归设计的100篇精选Articles专辑！！！

关于（模糊）断点回归设计的100篇精选Articles专辑
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所有计量经济圈方法论丛的code程序, 宏微观数据库和各种软件都放在社群里.欢迎到计量经济圈社群交流访问.
上图为“coronavirus”在世界范围内谷歌搜索趋势.
前些日，咱们圈子引荐了①“实证研究中用到的200篇文章, 社科学者常备toolkit”、②实证文章写作常用到的50篇名家经验帖, 学者必读系列、③过去10年AER上关于中国主题的Articles专辑、④AEA 公布2017-19年度最受关注的十大研究话题, 给你的选题方向，受到各位学者欢迎和热议，很多博士生导师纷纷推荐给指导的学生参阅。

继上次，腾讯公司相关部门与因果推断研究小组开展了还算友好的交流后（“BATJ巨头急需大批经济学博士, 望奔走相告”），最近，阿里巴巴相关部门人员也希望在因果推断研究小组交流访问（因果推断研究小组惊动了阿里巴巴！）。

经济学博士在BATJ公司有啥用呢? 难不成比IT程序员还有能耐，正如上文所讲，因果推断在将来很长一段时间里都是科技公司和社科学者使用的主流方法。

我们会一如既往地在小组和社群探讨主流的因果推断方法，同时也欢迎大型科技公司与咱们学者保持更紧密的互动。

之前，咱们小组引荐了1.断点回归设计RDD分类与操作案例，2.RDD断点回归, Stata程序百科全书式的宝典，3.断点回归设计的前沿研究现状, RDD，4.断点回归设计什么鬼？且听哈佛客解析，5.断点
回归和读者的提问解答，6.断点回归设计RDD全面讲解, 教育领域用者众多，7.没有工具变量、断点和随机冲击，也可以推断归因，8.找不到IV, RD和DID该怎么办? 这有一种备选方法，9.2卷RDD断点回归使用手册, 含Stata和R软件操作流程，10.DID, 合成控制, 匹配, RDD 四种方法比较, 适用范围和特征，11.安神+克拉克奖得主的RDD论文, 断点回归设计，12.伊斯兰政府到底对妇女友不友好？RDD经典文献，13.PSM,RDD,Heckman,Panel模型的操作程序，14.RDD经典文献, RDD模型有效性稳健性检验，15.2019年发表在JDE上的有趣文章, 计量方法最新趋势
与合成控制法（关于合成控制法SCM的33篇精选Articles专辑！）和双重差分法一样（关于双重差分法DID的32篇精选Articles 专辑！），断点回归设计RDD也是当下非常流行的因果推断方法，在英文和中文顶刊中频繁出现。

基于此，咱们小组引荐100篇使用断点回归设计RDD做实证研究的社科文章，感兴趣的学者可以在社群下载交流和讨论。

下面每一篇文章都值得年轻学者在新型肺炎期间认真研习，毕竟每个个体在特殊时期都有自己的角色和相应责任。

若实在想要关注新型肺炎，作为一个专业型学者可以看以下四篇文章：1.关于2019-nCoV, 各中外新闻机构的第一篇报道及时间线，2.关于2019-nCoV, 中国学者已发表了高达50篇期刊文章！，3.关于武汉冠状病毒, 最新中英文期刊上的文章都在这里，4.SARS病毒在中国媒体, 经济, 社会等领域留下的遗产专辑！5.2019年国内和国际重要(学术)事件分类, 学者不可不知。

Ahn, T. (2014). "A regression discontinuity analysis of graduation standards and their impact on students’ academic trajectories." Economics of Education Review 38: 64-75.In 2006, North Carolina put in place high school exit standards requiring students to pass a series of high-stakes exams across several years. I use a regression discontinuity (RD) approach to analyze whether passing or failing one of these exams (Algebra I) impacts a student's decision between choosing a more rigorous college-preparatory math curriculum and an easier ‘career’
track math curriculum. I find a 5 percentage point gap in the probability of selecting the rigorous curriculum between 9th grade students who just passed and those who just failed the exam. RD results across two years (one year in which the graduation standards were not in place) suggest that the discontinuity arose due to fewer students opting into the college track as a result of the exam results. Ahn, T. (2018). "Assessing the effects of reemployment bonuses on job search: A regression discontinuity approach." Journal of Public Economics 165: 82-100.This study examines the impacts of reemployment bonuses, that is, the incentive payments to unemployment insurance (UI) recipients who find a job within a specified period, using Korean data. A sharp discontinuity in treatment assignment at age 55 identifies the effect of increased reemployment bonuses on unemployment duration and on subsequent job duration. The results indicate that increases in the reemployment bonus boost the job-finding hazards of UI claimants early in their unemployment spells during the bonus qualification period and significantly shorten the duration of UI spells by 0.16 to 0.42 months (0.68 to 1.82 weeks). In addition, employment stability is not significantly affected by an increased bonus, which implies no negative influence of the bonus on subsequent job match quality. The simulated estimates show that the increase in tax revenue and the decrease in UI benefit payment caused by the behavioral response of UI recipients are large enough to offset the increased cost of the reemployment bonus. Almeida, H., et al. (2016). "The real effects of share repurchases." Journal of Financial Economics 119(1): 168-185.We employ a regression discontinuity design to identify the real effects of share repurchases on other firm outcomes. The probability of share
repurchases that increase earnings per share (EPS) is sharply higher for firms that would have just missed the EPS forecast in the absence of the repurchase, when compared with firms that “just beat” the EPS forecast. We use this discontinuity to show that EPS-motivated repurchases are associated with reductions in employment and investment, and a decrease in cash holdings. Our evidence suggests that managers are willing to trade off investments and employment for stock repurchases that allow them to meet analyst EPS forecasts. Babu, S. C., et al. (2017). Chapter 13 - Economics of School Nutrition: An Application of Regression Discontinuity. Nutrition Economics. S. C. Babu, S. N. Gajanan and J. A. Hallam. San Diego, Academic Press: 257-277.This chapter explores another set of nutritional interventions through school feeding programs. School feeding programs help not only to reduce hunger among school children, but also to increase enrollment and educational outcomes. Such multi-objective programs require bringing nutrition and education communities together to develop and implement the nutrition interventions. Balthrop, A. T. and K. E. Schnier (2016). "A regression discontinuity approach to measuring the effectiveness of oil and natural gas regulation to address the common-pool externality." Resource and Energy Economics 44: 118-138.Oil and natural gas reservoirs typically span multiple productive leases so that no owner has rights to the entire stock of resource, resulting in production externalities. Previous literature has examined the effectiveness of government regulation in Texas and Oklahoma in abating these externalities, finding Oklahoma to be more successful in unifying common pools and securing property rights. Using regression discontinuity design, we quantify the impact of regulatory difference between the two states. We find
that Oklahoma produces an average of 3361 more barrels of oil over the life of a well, relative to Texas. Given the maturity of the fields in question, the result underscores the continuing importance of addressing common pool externalities even after the primary phase of recovery has largely been completed. Baltrunaite, A., et al. (2019). "Let the voters choose women." Journal of Public Economics 180: 104085.We study the effectiveness of a novel measure to reduce gender gaps in political empowerment: double preference voting conditioned on gender, coupled with gender quotas on candidate lists. This policy was introduced in 2012 in Italian municipal elections. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that the share of female councilors rises by 18 percentage points. The result is mainly driven by an increase in preference votes cast for female candidates, suggesting a salient role of double preference voting. We also detect changes in voters' behavior in casting preferences in higher level elections, suggesting the presence of spill-over effects of the double preference voting policy. Bargain, O. and K. Doorley (2011). "Caught in the trap? Welfare's disincentive and the labor supply of single men." Journal of Public Economics 95(9): 1096-1110.Youth unemployment is particularly large in many industrialized countries and has dramatic consequences in both the short and long-term. While there is abundant evidence about the labor supply of married women and single mothers, little is known about how young (childless) singles react to financial incentives. The French minimum income (Revenu Minimum d'Insertion, RMI), often accused of generating strong disincentives to work, offers a natural setting to study this question since childless single individuals, primarily males, constitute the core group of recipients. Exploiting the fact that
childless adults under age 25 are not eligible for this program, we conduct a regression discontinuity analysis using French Census data. We find that the RMI reduces the participation of uneducated single men by 7–10% at age 25. We conduct an extensive robustness check and discuss the implications of our results for youth unemployment and current policy developments. Barrera-Osorio, F. and H. Bayona-Rodríguez (2019). "Signaling or better human capital: Evidence from Colombia." Economics of Education Review 70: 20-34.We use data from the admissions process from a highly selective private university in Colombia to analyze the impact of prestigious university attendance on the education trajectory and labor market outcomes of individuals. The university´s selection process allows the use of a regression discontinuity design. We estimate both intent-to-treatment (offer admissions) and treatment-on-the-treated (enrollment) effects. The results show positive effects of offering admission to the prestigious university on the probability of enrollment, 13.8 percentage point (pp), 1.3 pp increase in academic credits a student need to repeat, and increment in 7 pp in probability of graduation. Despite no significant effects on the standardized university exit exam, we found positive effects on the probability of employment and earnings, 7.4 and 4.6 pp respectively. These results suggest that prestigious universities are more effective source of signaling in the labor market, but they are not more effective than other universities in developing human capital. Barrera-Osorio, F., et al. (2018). "Concentrating efforts on low-performing schools: Impact estimates from a quasi-experimental design." Economics of Education Review 66: 73-91.This paper presents the impact evaluation results of the Colombian program Todos a Aprender
(Everyone Learning Program, ELP), a multi-level intervention targeting low-performing schools. The main objective of the program was to increase math and language test scores of these schools through on-site teacher training, principal training and textbooks for students. Using census data from public schools containing detailed longitudinal information since 2010, the starting year of the program, and taking advantage of targeting rules based on dropout and grade repetition rates we fit a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to estimate program impacts. We also fit a difference-in-difference matching model as well as blocking with regressions to estimate the ATT impact of the program, based on observed characteristics used in the targeting process. Overall results indicate no significant impact of the program on test scores, grade repetition nor dropout rates. Additional analyses from a representative sample of 400 schools collected in the field suggest that deficiencies in the program's design and implementation could explain the lack of significant program impacts. Beatty, T. K. M., et al. (2014). "Cash by any other name? Evidence on labeling from the UK Winter Fuel Payment." Journal of Public Economics 118: ernment transfers to individuals are often given labels indicating that they are designed to support the consumption of particular goods. Standard economic theory implies that the labeling of cash transfers or cash-equivalents should have no effect on spending patterns. We study the UK Winter Fuel Payment, a cash transfer to older households. Our empirical strategy nests a regression discontinuity design within an Engel curve framework. We find robust evidence of a behavioral effect of labeling. On average households spend 47% of the WFP on fuel. If the payment were treated as cash, we would expect households to spend 3% of the
payment on fuel. Berger, M., et al. (2016). "Higher taxes, more evasion? Evidence from border differentials in TV license fees." Journal of Public Economics 135: 74-86.This paper studies the evasion of TV license fees in Austria. We exploit border differentials to identify the effect of fees on evasion. Comparing municipalities at the low- and high-fee side of state borders reveals that higher fees trigger significantly more evasion. Our preferred estimator indicates that a one percent increase in fees raises the evasion rate by 0.3 percentage points. The positive effect of fees on evasion is confirmed in different parametric and non-parametric approaches and survives several robustness checks. Bergman, P. and M. J. Hill (2018). "The effects of making performance information public: Regression discontinuity evidence from Los Angeles teachers." Economics of Education Review 66: 104-113.This paper uses school-district data and a regression discontinuity design to study the effects of making teachers’ value-added ratings available to the public and searchable by name. We find that classroom compositions change as a result of this new information. In particular, high-scoring students sort into the classrooms of published, high-value added teachers. This sorting occurs when there is within school-grade variation in teachers’ value added. Bernal, N., et al. (2017). "The effects of access to health insurance: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Peru." Journal of Public Economics 154: 122-136.In many countries large parts of the population do not have access to health insurance. Peru has made an effort to change this in the early 2000s. The institutional setup gives rise to the rare opportunity to study the effects of health insurance coverage exploiting a sharp regression discontinuity design. We find large effects on utilization that are
most pronounced for the provision of curative care. Individuals seeing a doctor leads to increased awareness about health problems and generates a potentially desirable form of supplier-induced demand: they decide to pay themselves for services that are in short supply. Boomhower, J. and L. W. Davis (2014). "A credible approach for measuring inframarginal participation in energy efficiency programs." Journal of Public Economics 113: 67-79.Economists have long argued that many recipients of energy-efficiency subsidies may be “non-additional,” getting paid to do what they would have done anyway. Demonstrating this empirically has been difficult, however, because of endogeneity concerns and other challenges. In this paper we use a regression discontinuity analysis to examine participation in a large-scale residential energy-efficiency program. Comparing behavior just on either side of several eligibility thresholds, we find that program participation increases with larger subsidy amounts, but that most households would have participated even with much lower subsidy amounts. The large fraction of inframarginal participants means that the larger subsidy amounts are almost certainly not cost-effective. Moreover, the results imply that about half of all participants would have adopted the energy-efficient technology even with no subsidy whatsoever. Bosch, M. and N. Schady (2019). "The effect of welfare payments on work: Regression discontinuity evidence from Ecuador." Journal of Development Economics 139: 17-27.We study the impact of welfare payments in Ecuador on the probability that adults work, and on whether they are employed in the formal or informal sectors. Our identification strategy exploits the fact that welfare was limited to individuals below a cutoff value on a household “poverty score”. We find no
evidence that transfers discouraged work. However, among women, welfare payments led to reductions in social security contributions (which are mandated for salaried workers), although the magnitude of these effects is small. Bracco, E., et al. (2018). "The effect of far right parties on the location choice of immigrants: Evidence from Lega Nord Mayors." Journal of Public Economics 166: 12-26.Immigration has increasingly taken centre-stage in the political landscape. Part of this has been a rise in far-right, anti-immigration parties in a range of countries. Existing evidence suggests that the presence of immigrants generates an advantage for parties with anti-immigration or nationalist platforms. This paper explores a closely related but overlooked issue: how immigrant behaviour is influenced by these parties. We focus on immigrant location decisions in Northern Italy, an area that has seen the rise of the anti-immigration party Lega Nord. We construct a dataset of mayoral elections in Italy for the years 2002–2014 and estimate the effect of electing a mayor belonging to, or supported by, Lega Nord. Exploiting close elections in a regression discontinuity framework we demonstrate that the election of a Lega Nord mayor discourages immigrants from moving into the municipality. We also provide suggestive evidence that the effect is driven primarily by the anti-immigration politics of Lega Nord insofar as it is absent in the period before their adoption of an explicitly anti-immigration platform and is concentrated in smaller, less educated, municipalities. Brachert, M., et al. (2019). "The regional effects of a place-based policy – Causal evidence from Germany." Regional Science and Urban Economics 79: 103483.The German government provides discretionary investment grants to structurally weak regions in order to reduce regional inequality.
We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits an exogenous discrete jump in the probability of regional actors to receive investment grants to identify the causal effects of the policy. We find positive effects of the programme on district-level gross value-added and productivity growth, but no effects on employment and gross wage growth. Brasington, D. M. (2017). "School spending and new construction." Regional Science and Urban Economics 63: 76-84.School districts that vote in favor of property tax levies may signal that they are education-oriented. Through Tiebout sorting and housing developer activity, new residents might move to such communities. New retail development may occur near these new residents, and office firms that rely on high-skilled residents might be drawn too. Using regression discontinuity we find school districts that renew property tax levies have a higher value of new construction than districts that do not renew these school expenditures. School tax levy renewal is responsible for 14% of new residential construction and 25% of new commercial construction. Burgstahler, D. (2019). "Discussion of “Modeling the determinants of meet-or-just-beat behavior in distribution d iscontinuity tests”." Journal of Accounting and Economics 68(2): 101263.
Carlson, D. and S. Lavertu (2016). "Charter school closure and student achievement: Evidence from Ohio." Journal of Urban Economics 95: 31-48.The closure of low-performing schools is an essential feature of the charter school model. Our regression discontinuity analysis uses an exogenous source of variation in school closure—an Ohio law that requires charter schools to close if they fail to meet a specific performance standard—to estimate the causal effect of closure on student achievement. The
results indicate that closing low-performing charter schools eventually yields achievement gains of around 0.2–0.3 standard deviations in reading and math for students attending these schools at the time they were identified for closure. The study also employs mandatory closure as an instrument for estimating the impact of exiting low-quality charter schools, thus providing plausible lower-bound estimates of charter school effectiveness. These results complement the more common lottery-based estimates of charter school effects, which likely serve as upper-bound estimates due to their focus on oversubscribed schools often located in cities with high-performing charter sectors. We discuss the implications for research and policy. Carrell, S. E., et al. (2011). "Does drinking impair college performance? Evidence from a regression discontinuity approach." Journal of Public Economics 95(1): 54-62.This paper examines the effect of alcohol consumption on student achievement. To do so, we exploit the discontinuity in drinking at age 21 at a college in which the minimum legal drinking age is strictly enforced. We find that drinking causes significant reductions in academic performance, particularly for the highest-performing students. This suggests that the negative consequences of alcohol consumption extend beyond the narrow segment of the population at risk of more severe, low-frequency, outcomes. Carrillo, P. E., et al. (2018). "Pollution or crime: The effect of driving restrictions on criminal activity." Journal of Public Economics 164: 50-69.Driving restriction programs have been implemented in many cities around the world to alleviate pollution and congestion problems. Enforcement of such programs is costly and can potentially displace policing resources used for crime prevention and crime detection. Hence, driving restrictions may increase crime. To test
this hypothesis, we exploit both temporal and spatial variation in the implementation of Quito, Ecuador's Pico y Placa program, and evaluate its effect on crime. Both difference-in-differences and spatial regression discontinuity estimates provide credible evidence that driving restrictions have increased crime rates. Cerqua, A. and G. Pellegrini (2014). "Do subsidies to private capital boost firms' growth? A multiple regression discontinuity design approach." Journal of Public Economics 109: 114-126.There is still little consensus among economists on the effectiveness of business support policies. The evaluation of such policies requires a reliable identification procedure that is hardly achieved in empirical studies. We analyse the impact of a policy instrument – Law 488/92 (L488), the main Italian regional policy – that allocates subsidies to private firms by a multiple ranking system. Thanks to the peculiar L488 selection process that creates the conditions for a local random experiment, we are able to assess the effectiveness of these types of incentives for a relevant subgroup of firms. We propose a nonparametric multiple rankings regression discontinuity design that exploits the sharp discontinuities in the L488 rankings and extends the regression discontinuity design (RDD) approach to a context where the treatment is assigned by multiple rankings with different cut-off points. We find that the impact of the subsidies on employment, investment, and turnover is positive and statistically significant, while the effect on productivity is mostly negligible. The new subsidised capital is additional but non-complementary with the owner-financed investment. The results are robust to different specifications and not due to intertemporal substitution. Chen, S., et al. (2019). "How does quasi-indexer ownership affect corporate tax planning?" Journal of Accounting and
Economics 67(2): 278-296.We study whether, and more importantly, through what mechanisms, quasi-indexers affect portfolio firms’ tax planning by employing the discontinuity in quasi-indexer ownership around the Russell 1000/2000 index cutoff. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that higher quasi-indexer ownership leads to greater tax saving. With respect to the mechanisms, we find that the greater tax saving is a result of a focus on improved overall firm performance, not a specific focus on improved tax planning. We further find that the documented tax saving effect is partially due to quasi-indexers’ influences on executive equity incentives, corporate governance, and information environment. Chen, Y., et al. (2019). "Valuing the urban hukou in China: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design for housing prices." Journal of Development Economics 141: 102381.This paper explores the demand side of hukou (household registration) acquisition in China by estimating the market valuation of urban hukou. Based on Jinan City’s acquiring the hukous by purchasing houses policy, this paper uses houses with a floor area slightly larger and slightly smaller than the minimum required as the treatment and control groups, respectively, to implement a regression discontinuity design. The results show that residents’ willingness to pay for urban hukou in Jinan City was approximately 90,000–126,000 yuan in 2017. We also find great heterogeneity in different housing submarkets; the value of hukou is much higher in immigrant-dominated housing markets and top primary school districts. Our findings are robust to parametric and nonparametric estimates and different model specifications. We perform falsification tests by assuming a false policy introduction date and placebo tests based on rental data. Our analysis offers
insights for hukou system reform and public services provision. Chin, A., et al. (2013). "Impact of bilingual education programs on limited English proficient students and their peers: Regression discontinuity evidence from Texas." Journal of Public Economics 107: 63-78.Texas requires a school district to offer bilingual education when its enrollment of limited English proficient (LEP) students in a particular elementary grade and language is twenty or higher. Using school panel data, we find a significant increase in the probability that a district provides bilingual education above this 20-student cutoff. Using this discontinuity as an instrument for district bilingual education provision, we find that providing bilingual education programs (relative to providing only English as a Second Language programs) does not significantly impact the standardized test scores of students with Spanish as their home language (comprised primarily of ever-LEP students). However, we find significant positive impacts on non-LEP students' achievement, which indicates that education programs for LEP students have spillover effects to non-LEP students. Choi, J.-y. and M.-j. Lee (2018). "Relaxing conditions for local average treatment effect in fuzzy regression discontinuity." Economics Letters 173: 47-50.In fuzzy regression discontinuity with a running/forcing variable S and a cutoff c, the identified treatment effect is the ‘effect on compliers at S=c’. This well-known ‘local average treatment effect (LATE)’ interpretation requires (i) a monotonicity condition and (ii) the independence of the potential treatment and potential response variables from S. These assumptions can be violated, however, particularly (ii) when S affects potential variables, which can easily happen in practice. In this paper, we weaken both assumptions so that LATE in fuzzy regression
discontinuity has a better chance to hold in the real world, and practitioners can claim their findings in fuzzy regression discontinuity to be LATE. Christelis, D., et al. (2020). "The impact of health insurance on stockholding: A regression discontinuity approach." Journal of Health Economics 69: 102246.Economic theory predicts that a reduction in background risk should induce financial risk-taking, particularly for individuals with low stock market participation costs. Hence, health insurance coverage could affect financial risk-taking by offsetting health-related background risk. We use a regression discontinuity design to examine whether Medicare eligibility at age 65 increases stockholding in the US and find that it does so for those with college education, but not for their less-educated counterparts who face higher stock market participation costs. Our results are unlikely due to the reduction of medical expenses associated with Medicare coverage because the latter does not affect bondholding. Cockx, B. and M. Dejemeppe (2012). "Monitoring job search effort: An evaluation based on a regression discontinuity design." Labour Economics 19(5): 729-737.Since July 2004, the job search effort of long-term unemployed benefit claimants has been monitored in Belgium. We exploit the discontinuity in the treatment assignment at the age of 30 present in the first year of the reform to evaluate the effect of a notification sent at least eight months before job search is verified. Eight months after this notification and prior to the first monitoring interview, transitions to employment have increased by nearly nine percentage points compared to the counterfactual of no reform. Participation in training is raised, but not significantly, while withdrawals from the labor force are not affected. Coviello, D. and M. Mariniello (2014). "Publicity。