former Soviet Union
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Five years ago in the former Soviet Union, governments loyal to 忠于Moscow were falling roughly every six months. Those were the glory days of the "color revolutions" that brought new leaders to Georgia格鲁吉亚, Ukraine乌克兰and Kyrgyzstan吉尔吉斯斯坦(in quick succession)紧接着between 2003 and 2005, all with the backing of the United States. The region's political center of gravity重心was tilting倾斜sharply toward the West. But now that trend has been reversed翻到. In the past three months, two of those governments have been ousted推翻. Leaders far friendlier to Russia have again taken power in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, displacing置放the Orange and Tulip郁金香revolutions respectively分别地,各自的. (Indeed, Kiev just agreed to extend Moscow's naval海军的lease on the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in exchange for cheaper gas; the previous Ukrainian regime政体had opposed the move.) The region's last standing leader of a color revolution (the Rose), Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, is feeling lonelier than ever, and he has a warning for the Obama administration管理行政: Don't give Russia a free hand in the former Soviet bloc团体.
In an interview with TIME at his glass-domed半球形的presidential palace, Saakashvili laid out责骂how he sees the situation: President Barack Obama has been put in an awkward尴尬的spot by his drive to invigorate鼓舞ties with the Kremlin, having to deal with the legacy遗赠of George W. Bush, who had infuriated激怒的Moscow by supporting the color revolutions and building close ties with the governments they brought to power. Now Obama is being urged by the Russians to back away from those relationships. "It's not just about abandoning your ally同盟国Georgia. No, Russia is asking the U.S. to give back the Soviet(sphere of influence)影响范围," Saakashvili says. (See pictures of the Russia-Georgia war.)
(In practical terms)实际上在实践中, this seems to require three things of the United States and its European allies同盟国: do not push for any more ex-Soviet countries to join NATO; do not openly support any opposition movements that seek to oust 剥夺取
代pro-Russian governments; and more generally, make sure to consult参阅参考Moscow before going ahead with any big initiatives主动权in Russia's backyard, especially military军事的ones. Under the Bush administration, all three were ignored忽略, and relations with Russia became nastier 安脏的龌龊的than they had been since the
Cold War. Obama, on the other hand, has been far more obliging约束, and his Administration believes Moscow is reciprocating互给的,报答— much to Saakashvili's chagrin懊恼气愤.
Nowhere has this been more clear than in NATO's changing attitudes. In a statement on April 14, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged NATO countries to integrate使完整Russia into their security保证的strategy instead of seeing Russia as a potential可能的潜在的threat. "The United States and Russia now clearly see eye to eye on a range of security issues. And we should use this new momentum动力to take further steps to enhance增强提高our common security," Rasmussen said. Earlier plans to put Ukraine and Georgia on the fast track to NATO membership成员资格have been put aside, and as a result, Russia is helping NATO get its supplies into Afghanistan阿富汗斯坦. The American approach to missile 导弹的defense防卫in Eastern Europe has also changed. Whereas鉴于反之然而Bush plowed ahead with his plan despite Moscow's fierce凶猛的objections反对意见, Obama has invited the Kremlin to take part in a dialogue对话over the issue. (See pictures of Obama in Russia.)
The Russians are taking notice. "It's been very encouraging that the U.S. has refused to interfere干涉in Ukraine's domestic policy in the way it was doing during the Orange Revolution [in 2004]. Americans have also sharply cut their support to Georgia. At least they are not giving one dollar of military assistance援助, as far as I know, to Saakashvili," says Sergei Markov, a long-time Kremlin (spin doctor)起主导作用者and a parliamentary国会的deputy代理人for the United Russia party led by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
Officially官方地正式地, of course, the Obama team insists it has not turned away from U.S. allies(for the sake of)为了、、利益better ties with Moscow, and Saakashvili says he has "no reason to complain about day-to-day relations." The U.S. has also continued to criticize Russia for occupying about a fifth of Georgia's territory after the two countries fought a war in 2008. But that war still marked a turning point for America's broader广大的strategy. It showed that Russia was willing to use force to defend its interests in the region, while the United States could (be dragged into)使卷入a war if it continued to oppose those interests to the end. Even the Bush administration was not prepared to take