Understanding the Principals and Factors that Affect Your 了解影响的原则与因素你
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“When to Buy? – When to Wait?”
2. Energy Cost
Natural Gas – “Volatile Pricing in a Volatile Market”
- EXAMPLE -
May 3, 2019 - Natural Gas Price --- $ 10.87 DT
Cost to run Smarr I for 10 Hours 100 MW’S/HR
$ 122,287.50
May 3, 2009 - Natural Gas Price --- $ 3.62 DT
Cost to run Smarr I for 10 Hours 100 MW’S/HR
$ 40,725.00
2. Energy Cost
HEAT RATE COMPARISON
Combustion Turbines
Doyle ……….. 11,750 BTU/kWh Smarr ……….. 11,450 BTU/kWh Sewell Creek .. 12,700 BTU/kWh Talbot ………. 12,450 BTU/kWh
Combined Cycle
Chattahoochee . 7,275 BTU/kWh
2. Energy CБайду номын сангаасst
EXAMPLE HEAT RATE COST COMPARISON
Fuel Cost ( $4.50 DT) - Run Time (1 Hr) – Output (1 MW)
COMBUSTION TURBINE
2. Energy Cost
FUEL – “The Stuff that makes the Engines Run”
2. Energy Cost
Types of Fuel Used: Nuclear ( Uranium ) Coal Natural Gas Fuel Oil Hydro
2. Energy Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
Understanding Power Cost
What is the single best thing you will see in this Presentation Today?
My New Granddaughter!!!
Understanding Power Cost
I. What are the Factors that Affect the Wholesale Cost of Electricity Today?
Doyle (Heat Rate) ------------------ 11,750 Btu/kWh
HR (/1000) x Fuel Cost x Output (/1000) x Runtime 1.1750 x $4.50 x 1kW x 1 Hr
5.29 ¢/ kWh
COMBINED CYCLE
Without Insurance (Hedges, Block Replacements, 3rd Party Deals) to cover the loss of a Major Unit
(Base Load or Intermediate) You are exposed to the MARKET.. and the MARKET can be BRUTAL!!! How many of you remember December of 2000? Who can tell me what the peak Market Price for
I. What are the Factors that Affect the
Wholesale Cost of Electricity Today?
1. Cost of Capacity 2. Cost of Energy 3. Cost of Other Services 4. Resource Reliability 5. 3rd Party Cost 6. Customer Load 7. Internal Cost
Types of Generation
2. INTERMEDIATE
✓Designed to run 50% to 75% of the year
✓Designed for highest efficiency for fuel source
✓Uses higher cost fuel ✓Medium size capacity ✓Less expensive to build than BASE ✓Medium life ✓Medium maintenance Cost
Fuel Cost - “A Constantly Moving Target”
2. Energy Cost
Fuel Cost - “A Constantly Moving Target”
Nuclear and Coal
Fairly Stable Pricing - Affected most by Coal Contracts and Coal Transportation Cost.
Rocky
- $ 51.88 / MW
Average Cost
- $ 36.76 / MW
1. Capacity Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
PEAKING
Smarr
- $ 122.23 / MW
Sewell Creek - $ 158.90 / MW
Talbot
- $ 159.16 / MW
1. Capacity Cost
• GENERATION – “The Engines that pulls the Load”
Types of Generation
1. BASE
✓Designed to run full-time
✓Uses low cost fuel ✓Large capacity ✓Longest life ✓Least cost to maintain
Fuel Oil
(Used only in Emergencies- Gas not Available)
2. Energy Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
2. Energy Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
Type MWH’S Generated Cost / kWh
Understanding the Principals and Factors
that Affect Your Members Rates Now and in the Future
Robert E. Rentfrow Vice-President of Power Supply
Walton EMC rrentfrowwaltonemc
2. Energy Cost
2. Energy Cost
Why the Big Difference in Price Between a
CT (Combustion Turbine)
and a
? CC (Combined Cycle) EFFICIENCY
also known as
HEAT RATE
Type MWH’S Generated Cost
Nuclear
9,766,807 $ 68,293,348
Coal
11,608,293 $362,024,677
Natural Gas 2,186,871 $141,119,650
Hydro
1,741,322 $ 40,654,111 *
(*Estimated -Depends on Fuel Used to Pump Water)
2. Energy Cost
HEAT RATE – def.
A number that tells how efficient a fuel– burning power plant is. The heat rate equals the Btu content of the fuel input divided by the kilowatt hours of power output.
Doyle
- $ 171.65 / MW
Hartwell
- $ 173.94 / MW
SEPA
- $ 41.11 / MW
Average Cost - $ 104.66 / MW
1. Capacity Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
1. Capacity Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
II. What are the Factors that Will Affect the Cost of Electricity in the Future?
III. Wholesale to Retail – What Price Signal Should We Be Sending our Customers?
Cost /kWh
1. OPC ………………….
1.81¢
(Export Transmission, Gas Storage, Cobb PPA, Gas Hedging,
Green Power)
2. Transmission(GTC) … .005 ¢
3. Control Area (GSOC).. .00025 ¢
The Generation Load Curve
300 MW’s PEAKING 15%
INTERMEDIATE
BASE
180 MW’s 220 MW’s
Hr - 1314
85% Hr - 7446
1. Capacity Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
BASE
Vogtle 1 & 2 - $ 42.66 / MW
Hatch
- $ 25.75 / MW
Scherer - $ 10.50 / MW
Wansley - $ 13.88 / MW
Average Cost - $ 22.62 / MW
1. Capacity Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
INTERMEDIATE
Chattahoochee - $ 26.03 / MW
4. Total Other Services ……. 1.81525 ¢
Total OPC/GTC/GSOC/SEPA Cost – (Estimated for 2019)
$1,621,921,694.85
Cost per kWh
6.58 ¢
4. Resource Reliability
“When the Units Don’t Run …. The Energy Still Has to Come From .. SOMEWHERE? How does this affect Energy Cost?
Nuclear
9,766,807
.699 ¢
Coal
11,608,293 3.119 ¢
Natural Gas 2,186,871 6.450 ¢
Hydro
1,741,322 2.344 ¢*
(*Estimated -Depends on Fuel Used to Pump Water)
2. Energy Cost
Hydro
Depends on Water at the Dam and the Cost to Pump up Rocky
Natural Gas
Price Moves Daily – Stabilized Somewhat thru Hedging and Gas Storage – But therein lies the Problem –
Chattahoochee (Heat Rate) ----7,275 Btu/kWh
HR (/1000) x Fuel Cost x Output (/1000) x Runtime .7275 x $4.50 x 1kW x 1 Hr
3.27 ¢/ kWh
3. Other Services
SERVICE
Types of Generation
3. PEAKING
✓Designed to run less than 25% of the year
✓Lowest efficiency for fuel source
✓Uses higher cost fuel. ✓Small size capacity ✓Least expensive to build ✓Medium life ✓Highest maintenance cost
2. Energy Cost
Natural Gas – “Volatile Pricing in a Volatile Market”
- EXAMPLE -
May 3, 2019 - Natural Gas Price --- $ 10.87 DT
Cost to run Smarr I for 10 Hours 100 MW’S/HR
$ 122,287.50
May 3, 2009 - Natural Gas Price --- $ 3.62 DT
Cost to run Smarr I for 10 Hours 100 MW’S/HR
$ 40,725.00
2. Energy Cost
HEAT RATE COMPARISON
Combustion Turbines
Doyle ……….. 11,750 BTU/kWh Smarr ……….. 11,450 BTU/kWh Sewell Creek .. 12,700 BTU/kWh Talbot ………. 12,450 BTU/kWh
Combined Cycle
Chattahoochee . 7,275 BTU/kWh
2. Energy CБайду номын сангаасst
EXAMPLE HEAT RATE COST COMPARISON
Fuel Cost ( $4.50 DT) - Run Time (1 Hr) – Output (1 MW)
COMBUSTION TURBINE
2. Energy Cost
FUEL – “The Stuff that makes the Engines Run”
2. Energy Cost
Types of Fuel Used: Nuclear ( Uranium ) Coal Natural Gas Fuel Oil Hydro
2. Energy Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
Understanding Power Cost
What is the single best thing you will see in this Presentation Today?
My New Granddaughter!!!
Understanding Power Cost
I. What are the Factors that Affect the Wholesale Cost of Electricity Today?
Doyle (Heat Rate) ------------------ 11,750 Btu/kWh
HR (/1000) x Fuel Cost x Output (/1000) x Runtime 1.1750 x $4.50 x 1kW x 1 Hr
5.29 ¢/ kWh
COMBINED CYCLE
Without Insurance (Hedges, Block Replacements, 3rd Party Deals) to cover the loss of a Major Unit
(Base Load or Intermediate) You are exposed to the MARKET.. and the MARKET can be BRUTAL!!! How many of you remember December of 2000? Who can tell me what the peak Market Price for
I. What are the Factors that Affect the
Wholesale Cost of Electricity Today?
1. Cost of Capacity 2. Cost of Energy 3. Cost of Other Services 4. Resource Reliability 5. 3rd Party Cost 6. Customer Load 7. Internal Cost
Types of Generation
2. INTERMEDIATE
✓Designed to run 50% to 75% of the year
✓Designed for highest efficiency for fuel source
✓Uses higher cost fuel ✓Medium size capacity ✓Less expensive to build than BASE ✓Medium life ✓Medium maintenance Cost
Fuel Cost - “A Constantly Moving Target”
2. Energy Cost
Fuel Cost - “A Constantly Moving Target”
Nuclear and Coal
Fairly Stable Pricing - Affected most by Coal Contracts and Coal Transportation Cost.
Rocky
- $ 51.88 / MW
Average Cost
- $ 36.76 / MW
1. Capacity Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
PEAKING
Smarr
- $ 122.23 / MW
Sewell Creek - $ 158.90 / MW
Talbot
- $ 159.16 / MW
1. Capacity Cost
• GENERATION – “The Engines that pulls the Load”
Types of Generation
1. BASE
✓Designed to run full-time
✓Uses low cost fuel ✓Large capacity ✓Longest life ✓Least cost to maintain
Fuel Oil
(Used only in Emergencies- Gas not Available)
2. Energy Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
2. Energy Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
Type MWH’S Generated Cost / kWh
Understanding the Principals and Factors
that Affect Your Members Rates Now and in the Future
Robert E. Rentfrow Vice-President of Power Supply
Walton EMC rrentfrowwaltonemc
2. Energy Cost
2. Energy Cost
Why the Big Difference in Price Between a
CT (Combustion Turbine)
and a
? CC (Combined Cycle) EFFICIENCY
also known as
HEAT RATE
Type MWH’S Generated Cost
Nuclear
9,766,807 $ 68,293,348
Coal
11,608,293 $362,024,677
Natural Gas 2,186,871 $141,119,650
Hydro
1,741,322 $ 40,654,111 *
(*Estimated -Depends on Fuel Used to Pump Water)
2. Energy Cost
HEAT RATE – def.
A number that tells how efficient a fuel– burning power plant is. The heat rate equals the Btu content of the fuel input divided by the kilowatt hours of power output.
Doyle
- $ 171.65 / MW
Hartwell
- $ 173.94 / MW
SEPA
- $ 41.11 / MW
Average Cost - $ 104.66 / MW
1. Capacity Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
1. Capacity Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
II. What are the Factors that Will Affect the Cost of Electricity in the Future?
III. Wholesale to Retail – What Price Signal Should We Be Sending our Customers?
Cost /kWh
1. OPC ………………….
1.81¢
(Export Transmission, Gas Storage, Cobb PPA, Gas Hedging,
Green Power)
2. Transmission(GTC) … .005 ¢
3. Control Area (GSOC).. .00025 ¢
The Generation Load Curve
300 MW’s PEAKING 15%
INTERMEDIATE
BASE
180 MW’s 220 MW’s
Hr - 1314
85% Hr - 7446
1. Capacity Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
BASE
Vogtle 1 & 2 - $ 42.66 / MW
Hatch
- $ 25.75 / MW
Scherer - $ 10.50 / MW
Wansley - $ 13.88 / MW
Average Cost - $ 22.62 / MW
1. Capacity Cost (OPC 2019 Forecast)
INTERMEDIATE
Chattahoochee - $ 26.03 / MW
4. Total Other Services ……. 1.81525 ¢
Total OPC/GTC/GSOC/SEPA Cost – (Estimated for 2019)
$1,621,921,694.85
Cost per kWh
6.58 ¢
4. Resource Reliability
“When the Units Don’t Run …. The Energy Still Has to Come From .. SOMEWHERE? How does this affect Energy Cost?
Nuclear
9,766,807
.699 ¢
Coal
11,608,293 3.119 ¢
Natural Gas 2,186,871 6.450 ¢
Hydro
1,741,322 2.344 ¢*
(*Estimated -Depends on Fuel Used to Pump Water)
2. Energy Cost
Hydro
Depends on Water at the Dam and the Cost to Pump up Rocky
Natural Gas
Price Moves Daily – Stabilized Somewhat thru Hedging and Gas Storage – But therein lies the Problem –
Chattahoochee (Heat Rate) ----7,275 Btu/kWh
HR (/1000) x Fuel Cost x Output (/1000) x Runtime .7275 x $4.50 x 1kW x 1 Hr
3.27 ¢/ kWh
3. Other Services
SERVICE
Types of Generation
3. PEAKING
✓Designed to run less than 25% of the year
✓Lowest efficiency for fuel source
✓Uses higher cost fuel. ✓Small size capacity ✓Least expensive to build ✓Medium life ✓Highest maintenance cost