市盈率与市净率（Priceearningsratioandnetprofitratio）

市盈率与市净率（Price earnings ratio and net profit ratio）
Many of the price level of stock valuation methods, some are complicated, some very fancy a little cool, but I love this one simple truth, love is not gorgeous boastful; for the stock is so, the valuation of the value of the investment is one of the central issues, price earnings ratio valuation method is the most primitive and the most simple although there are many limitations, but does not prevent it as a practical method of valuation, it should be said that the line with my motto: simple and practical is good.
When it comes to the limitation of earnings that is very much, such as assets and liabilities, cash, accounts receivable, all these trends are not considered, but we don't have repeatedly said in the hope that an indicator of all problems, a certain index can explain one aspect, like a person may not for each field in the same; for this to have a correct understanding of the price earnings ratio is an important indicator, but never hope to correct reaction of stock price, better asset quality not the company is good or bad reaction.
Of course, the ideal method of stock price earnings ratio is not valued, but in your own valuation method has not formed before the very useful. The price earnings ratio or earnings, is an important index to reflect the investment returns and risk one, the cumulative number of years reflect the enterprise according to the current level of profitability need considerable profit to the current stock price. For investors earnings multiples as small as possible, the general description of higher investment value; multiple general means of virtual high price, high investment risk; price earnings
multiples usually seen in 10-30 times is a reasonable interval, different industry prospect and trend of development of enterprise depends on; if the calculated in static earnings ratio greatly, beyond the scope of the general can be determined to overestimate or underestimate, but not too complicated calculation method.
The price earnings ratio (P/E) between the price and earnings per share of stock proportion, also can be the total market value and net profit ratio. The price earnings ratio is based on historical earnings as the basis, thus resulting in a sense of belonging is prospective; itself implies an assumption that the company historical record of profitability as a reference, this identity can be used to analyze the basis of future profitability.
Earnings can be divided into static and dynamic earnings ratio are the same with the current price of molecular or total market capitalization, the static and dynamic difference is that the denominator is different, the dynamic price earnings ratio in recent earnings for the divisor can generally have three different algorithms, one is the stock market software using the "current profit the current quarter / *4"; two is the most recent four quarter data add; three is the last year for performance. The static price earnings ratio to years of profit for the divisor can be three years, five years, eight years, it does not have a unified standard, did not say that a data is most correct, people think that three years is too short perhaps an economic cycle is not finished, the data can reflect the environment in a variety of the performance of eight or more years too long, those data have now not state enterprises,
proposed in the last 5 years profit for the calculation of the standard, it is also about a cycle time, profitability is more reasonable, the real reaction of the enterprise; my childhood is very love this 5 words. In the book of 5 representatives in the house, placed at the center of gossip, it is a symbol of moderation and harmony in China culture. Two earnings calculation methods are as follows:
Dynamic price earnings ratio = price per share this year, net profit per share = total market value / net profit this year
The static price earnings ratio = share price / five average annual net profit per share of the total market value of 83019 five = average annual net profit
We usually think of the static price earnings ratio may help explain a company's stock price level, especially for the cyclical industry especially, dynamic earnings can not explain the problem, when the profit of only a few good times, bad times in the profitability can have hundreds of times, as long as the years of the static price earnings ratio average profit after,
In order to compare the objective response periodic just real industry profitability. But there are also a problem, the static price earnings ratio was relatively slow, it is not good that moment environment and the changes in the past can not represent the future, there is now a situation that the business situation is deteriorating, the static earnings ratio is none of my business.
There is also a need to pay attention to, also cannot see static
earnings trends, such as the two companies, a year profit of 50 million, another nearly five years of earnings are: 10 million, 20 million, 30 million, 40 million, 50 million, the current market value is 500 million, the first in terms of dynamic and static the earnings are also 10 times, for second dynamic price earnings ratio is also 10 times the static price earnings ratio is 16.67 times, only from the static price earnings ratio of two per share price higher than the first expensive, but in fact in the perspective of development, second higher than the first value, because of its the development trend of many than the first strong, now the market value is equivalent, that is to say second to now cheaper than the first.
Example: "ZTE" (000063)
According to today's closing share price, stock quotes software shows ZTE dynamic price earnings ratio of 123.6 times, it ignored the fact that the company 08 years a quarter net profit accounted for 3.67% of the proportion of 09, net profit in the first quarter accounted for the proportion of 3.2%, 09 in the first quarter net profit of 7865.5 yuan, net profit in the first quarter of this year 10986.4 yuan, belong to the normal level of growth; that is to say, the first quarter of this year, not surprisingly, I'm afraid of total annual net profit ratio will be below 5%, with 5%*4 = 20% to 100% is obviously inappropriate, the middle has appeared more than 80% deviation, also appeared 123.6 times the dynamic price earnings ratio. In essence it has lost its should have the reference significance.
Now in 5 years according to the static price earnings ratio
calculation, ZTE 2009 -2005 net profit of 2458121000 yuan, 1660199000 yuan, 1252158000 yuan, 766972000 yuan, 1194343000 yuan, 5 years for a total of 7331793000 yuan, an average of 1466358600 yuan per year, which is approximately equal to 1 billion 466 million yuan; the company's total market capitalization of 44 billion 380 million yuan, 443.8 yuan
/14.66 yuan = 30.27 times the static price earnings ratio of 30 times between the dynamic earnings ratio of 123 times and the gap is more than 4 times. It makes the net profit in more and more growing by reason, dynamic earnings should continue to decline, but according to market software algorithm, but this is counterintuitive phenomenon. But also said in front of the static price earnings ratio itself has many defects, at least it is not an ideal method of valuation, but it can't deny the judgment for the stock price has the important reference significance.
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In an article on the price earnings ratio has been discussed is not repeated, now the city net rate introduce, and then discuss the relationship between earnings and book value, city net rate refers to the ratio of the price per share and net assets per share, with a total market capitalization ratio can also be the net assets of the city; the net rate of stock price can be used as a reference, in general, the net rate of stock investment value is more low.
The calculation method of net rate is: city net rate (P/B) = the market price per share, net assets per share; the main difference between earnings and book value measure of stock
price is the profit as a reference, the latter to net assets as a reference. As for the more important, more valuable? Such a comparison is not much practical significance, if you must decide that I think we should pay more attention to the relative earnings; between the front said countless times of each index are complementary rather than competitive relationship, because earnings is inadequate to reference city net rate.
Net assets per share book value of equity divided by total equity is obtained, the book value of assets to purchase cost, including fixed assets,
We have discussed that the net assets can not provide effective protection for investment security, that is to say PB is a subject of investment relative to the reference price, and can not be understood as the level of protection on investment; for example PB is equal to 2 times, that if the company now bankruptcy liquidation, the 10 yuan the investment can get 5 yuan, this understanding in practice is definitely wrong. Although PB does not represent the profitability, is not representative of the investment security level, but this does not prevent the reference index for investment.
The article said that the dynamic price earnings ratio is easy to fluctuate, because profit is very difficult to have the stable performance, especially for small and medium sized enterprises and the cyclical industry is even more so, it will appear as "ZTE" (000063) this phenomenon; net assets in addition to capital operation is generally not significantly changed suddenly, so city net rate was relatively stable; the main factors lead to short-term changes because the stock price
does not appear, such as profit for the period increased significantly while PE becomes very low or declining PE become very high phenomenon, so can better reflect the changes of low price.
Because the city net rate of only the net assets without considering the profitability of assets, if the long-term net rate is very low and the price earnings ratio is very high, this part of the assets can not reach the normal level of profitability, has basically lost the meaning of operation. The enterprise can barely operating in good times, if macroeconomic or industry once what companies such as wind sways grass, like chaff on the playground, do not know will be blown to the place. If the A shares is not a backdoor listing this, there will be a lot of company PB is less than 1, but now the prices of these companies who are expensive, not because of the outbreak of the growth performance, but because of the reorganization of assets such as expected, this phenomenon is not healthy, adverse long-term development of the market.
There is a subtle relationship between earnings and book value, we first consider such a question: in the same ratio under the condition of high net rates or low city net rate? Most people will answer certainly low city net rate, because the lower PB that shares cheaper, safer investment. Is it really true that it would start to analyze it.
Suppose that there are two companies, the price earnings ratio (PE) is 20 times, the first city net rate (PB) is 2 times, second city net rate (PB) was 4 times that of other security situation, including asset liability ratio, industry, location, brand
advantage and so on. Now the two companies look at the specific data, assuming that the two companies are the total market value of 200 million yuan, then the 20 times PE last year is 10 million yuan, the first PB is equal to 2 times net assets is 100 million yuan, second PB equals 4 times net assets is 50 million yuan. The general understanding of the people is to buy the net assets of 100 million with 200 million of the total 50 million strong than to buy it, but from the fact that second of the 50 million assets is two times the first 100 million profitability of assets, a clear understanding of the facts seem to be second companies than the first company more attractive.
Through the above analysis, it can draw the PB of a company as high as this conclusion, this is contrary to common sense, do not look at the issue of such absolute. Now Chinese most is not only the strength, but the way of thinking Chinese full to non pattern, black and white do not think the bad is good, one of the other party is wrong, drama must have a heinous villain, must not apply leather life and no room for improvement, such thinking is very superficial, strange is the "book of changes" of the "theory of relativity" is this nation forward, anyway, if you want to change to analyze the problem and non black and white in this mode of thinking can not be. If a company is PE 8 times, PB is 8 times, the serious doubt whether the profit level of sustainability, don't believe people can win days, the investment should depend on is common sense, it plays an irreplaceable role,
So to see that it is natural to think of the company have a lot of disposable income, and the current stock price has been far overestimated.
Of course, simple valuation by PE, the PB is not ideal, but their play is "common sense", many are not actually fooled common sense test, I have their own set of valuation methods in accordance with our investment ideas, but if there is a company that the valuation results with PE and PB I would be the first to be quite different in common sense, do not hesitate to choose and why I believe that knowledge, find the results of the valuation and common sense does not meet. After considering the dynamic and static price earnings ratio, and the city net rate to determine the stock price reaction can objectively is a serious bubble, but no way to obtain the specific valuation; Buffett said: "very few cases can clearly see the price too underestimate or overestimate, but 90% of the time I do not know." To see this situation, PE PB can do. Tall buildings from the ground up, perhaps you should go to the blind pursuit of Buffett such as the valuation of ability now, and start learning from simple and practical, and the use of PE PB, as to realize the level of investment in the future, in addition to the talent and vision, sometimes also by chance, you will not what good results. Above mentioned numerous times the value of the investment character, just as important as the character and vision, why sidesteps the importance of vision, because the character to some extent can be learned, but almost no way to look for learning, no way to change do not blow out the aspiring value investors fellow. It is not that there is no good eye became not only the last value investors, can reach the height of different.
Example: "Shahe shares" (000014), "Southern Airlines" (600029)
Shares in Shahe stock market software shows the current dynamic price earnings ratio of 7.7 times, only from the look on the words is undervalued shares should be the city net rate is 3.96 times that of the real estate industry also shows that the share price is not low, a closer look at the first quarter earnings last year, and before the year is still a loss last year. Net profit of only 80 million 226 thousand and 800 yuan, while the first quarter of this year net profit of 68 million 462 thousand, mainly due to real estate projects into the settlement period. That is to say, this performance is not sustainable, the dynamic price earnings ratio will mislead some people know the truth".
China Southern Airlines stock quotes software shows the current dynamic price earnings ratio of 8.7 times, only from the words on the stock price has also been underestimated, the city net rate of up to 4.18 times more matched with Shahe shares, a quarter year-on-year growth of 424%, mainly due to the sale of Zhuhai free trade zone motianyu aviation engine maintenance company limited 50% equity investment income 1 billion 100 million due to the total profit of 1 billion 419 million yuan, net profit, that is to say, in addition to 1 billion 100 million yuan of investment income is 3.19 yuan, this performance is also not sustainable, city net rate here can remind investors to uncover the secret behind the profit.。