skortaiw南海问题研究

Heavy Chemical Industrialization
• HCI plan in 1970s • heavy and capital-intensive industries • strengthening of state intervention • foundation for the emergence of chaebol • combined net sales of the top 10 chaebol • 1974 15.1% of GNP • 1978 30.1% of GNP • 1981 55.7% of GNP
• Experience with Japan’s wartime economic management in Northeast China • Economic Planning Board • Ministry of Trade and Industry • Ministry of Finance • import substitution => export orientation • normalization with Japan • Vietnam War
South Korea and Taiwan
• development becomes state’s priority • commitment to private property & market • government’s strategic industrial policy • state agencies formulate and implement strategic policies (e.g. Japan’s MITI) • sound macroeconomic management • bureaucratic autonomy from interest groups
NIE development models
• Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea • export-oriented industrialization • state guidance • state involvement in economic development • high investment in human capital formation
South Korea and Taiwan
• Military strongman rule from 1960s to 1970s • South Korea • Park Chung Hee (1962-79) • Taiwan • Chiang Kai-Shek (1945-75)
Park Chung Hee
South Korea's GNP & Export Growth Rates (% ) 100
80
60
40
20
0
-20 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Financial sector
• Foreign Capital Inducement Law • control private sector’s access to foreign capital • business activities were directed by the state
NIE development model dead?
• South Korea in 1997 • negative growth for the 1st time in 2 decades • unemployment rate rose from 3% to 7% • per capita GNP almost shrank by half • Taiwan in 1997 • economic growth slowed down • still robust • Is the NIE development model in crisis?
Growth-first goal
• Low interest rate to induce firms to grow • favored large firms • firms compliant with state policies and plans • excessive demand for capital • inflation favored large debtors • inflation discouraged domestic savings • reliance on foreign debts • vulnerable to external shocks
Comparison
• Population
• South Korea:49 million
• Taiwan:
23 million
• land area
• South Korea:96,920 km2
• Taiwan:
32,260 km2
South Korea and Taiwan
• Purchasing power parity GDP of 2012
• South Korea: US$1.64 trillion (12th)
• Taiwan:
US$0.92 trillion (20th)
• GDP growth rate 2010-2012
• South Korea: 6.3%, 3.6%, 2%
• Taiwan: 10.8%, 4.1%, 1.3%
GNP源自文库Growth
Export Growth
Financial sector
• Government owned and controlled • all 5 commercial banks • including the central bank (Bank of Korea) • all 6 special banks • 2 of the 3 non-bank financial institutions