武大博士期末文章分析练习

Passage 1 Kyoto Protocol: The Unfinished Agenda

1. Most mainstream scientists agree that the burning of fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and petroleum that is known as oil or crude oil) and other industrial activities have led to a buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. They also agr ee that the earth‘s surface has warmed during the last century and that further warming of several degrees Celsius is likely in the next century. This broad scientific consensus has played an important role in convincing many national governments that immediate action is necessary to limit global greenhouse gas emissions.

2. Developing countries, however, have portrayed themselves as victimized by the wealthier industrialized nations. On one hand, these countries believe they have the most to lose from continued global warming. Because much of the developing world occupies warmer regions, where many species of crops and domesticated animals live at the upper limit of their natural temperature tolerance, higher temperatures could lead to widespread livestock declines and crop failures. Moreover, unlike the industrialized world, most developing nations lack the capital and infrastructure to develop new varieties of heat-tolerant crops and animals, build flood control systems, and deploy disaster relief when needed.

3. On the other hand, global emission reduction targets also hurt developing countries because such reduction interferes with their plans for economic development through inexpensive, carbon-based energy sources. Indeed, many representatives of developing countries see global warming advocates as part of a conspiracy to maintain the economic advantage of industrialized nations at the expense of poorer nations. Thus, developing countries have argued that they be exempt from emission reduction until their economies approached the strength of those in developed nation.

4. Carbon-cycle calculations, however, suggest that allowing developing countries to delay by decades their participation in emission reduction agreements would commit the world to very large increases in levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The carbon cycle refers to the natural process through which carbon dioxide injected into the atmosphere is slowly removed by photosynthesis in plants and absorption in the oceans. These processes take about a century to complete. Various carbon-cycle models have shown that if fossil fuels are used to power industrial growth in developing countries, then their carbon dioxide emissions will soon outpace even those of the currently industrialized countries. These computer models strongly suggest that emission reductions must be achieved everywhere, presumably through a Kyoto or post-Kyoto negotiated protocol.

5. Global environmental collapse is not inevitable. But the developed world must work with the

d eveloping world to ensur

e that new industrialized economies do not add to the world‘s environmental problems. Politicians must think o

f sustainable development rather than economic expansion. Conservation strategies have to become more widely accepted, and people must learn that energy use can be dramatically diminished without sacrificin

g comfort. In short, wit

h the technology that currently exists, the years of global environmental mistreatment can begin to be reversed. (476 words)