劳动力资源对进出口竞争的影响：以纺织业为例【外文翻译】

外文翻译
原文
LABOR MARKET EFFECTS OF IMPORT COMPETITON: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM THE TEXITILE AND APPAREL INDUSTRIES
Material Source: Atlantic Economic Journal
Author: BEN S. SHIPPEN
Abstract: Since the early 1980s, much attention has been given to the possibility of trade-related job losses and wage effects in the textile and apparel industries. This paper uses aggregate time series data from the Annual Survey of Manufacturers (Bartlesman and Gray, 1996) with import price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Alterman, 1991) for 1977-91 to test the effect of imports on employment and wages in textiles and apparel. Theoretical models suggest that import competition should be a factor in the determination of employment, and possibly wages, regardless of whether the country is represented as a price-setter or price-taker. The empirical analysis provides some support.
Key words: Labor market Import competition Wage Textile industry Introduction
There is widespread speculation that international trade has a large negative effect on employment and wages especially in low wage sectors where foreign labor costs are particularly low. Since the early 1980s, much attention has been given to the possibility of displaced domestic labor and wage losses in the textile and apparel industries.
Historically, textiles and apparel have been important industries in the U.S. economy, in terms of both output and employment. As recently as 1973, they employed 2.3 million workers or more than 11 percent of the total number of workers in manufacturing. By 1993 however, employment had declined to about 1.6 million workers and 8.3 percent of manufacturing--a decline of more than 30 percent. Real wages for both industries remain well below the manufacturing average. In 1993 the average apparel wage was 41percent less, and the average textile wage was 26 percent less than average wages in other manufacturing industries. A popular explanation for employment declines and low wages is the presence of import
competition. The purpose of this paper is to look at this popular notion by testing the effect of imports on employment and wages in textiles and apparel with aggregate time series data. Such an examination is absent in literature.
This paper is organized as follows. First, a theoretical model of textile and apparel supply and demand is presented to explain how import competition is expected to affect workers. In the world market, the U.S. is modeled as both a price-setter and a price-taker. The theoretical models suggest that import competition could be a factor in determining employment regardless of whether the U.S. is represented as a price-setter or price-taker. However, this would only be a determining factor of wages if the U.S. is a price-setter. Two empirical models are developed to test whether the U.S. textile and apparel market is a price-setter or price-taker. If the U.S. textile and apparel industries are price-takers, then a measure of import price should be sufficient to measure the effect of import competition on wages and employment. However, if the U.S. textile and apparel market is a price-setter, then endogeneity bias is a possibility in the import price variable and corrective steps must be taken to model the import effects. The analysis here suggests that the effect of import competition on employment and wages is small.
Theoretical Analysis
There are two limiting, theoretical possibilities regarding the way the U.S. production market affects the price in the world market:
1) Every domestic change in demand and supply causes a change in world prices.
2) Domestic changes in demand and supply have no affect on world prices.
The first possibility assumes that the U.S. is a large producer or consumer in the world market and is, thus, a price-setter. The second assumes that the U.S. is a small producer and a small consumer on the world market and is, thus, a price-taker. The distinction between these two possibilities is important because it determines whether import price is endogenous or exogenous to shocks in the domestic market.
Starting with the assumption that the U.S. is a price-setter in the world market, the import demand curve is a function of excess demand. The excess demand curve is negatively related to price and, as the domestic demand and supply curves shift, the intercept of the demand for imports changes. Assuming perfect substitutability between domestics and imports as demand for domestic production increases, then excess demand for import production will also increase. However, if domestic supply increases, then excess demand for imports will decrease.
The aggregate import supply curve represents the excess supply of goods in other countries. The supply schedule is positively related to price and reflects changes in foreign supply and demand. Foreign incomes and cost conditions abroad are inversely related to the supply schedule while technological changes positively affect supply.
The alternative model assumes that the U.S. is a price-taker. The excess demand curve in this model is the same as with the U.S. as a price-setter, with the intercept of the demand curve in the import market starting at the level of equilibrium of demand and supply in the U.S. domestic market. Changes in domestic conditions will change both the domestic equilibrium point and the excess demand in the import market. The supply curve in the import market is perfectly elastic, however, indicating that although changes in domestic demand and supply affect the quantity of imports purchased, they do not affect price.
Employment and Wage Models of Import Competition
Two models are used to calculate import competition effects on employment and wages in the textile and apparel industries, The first assumes that the U.S. market is a price-taker and, following the empirical framework of (Grossman ，1986), uses import price as the measure of international competition. The second model assumes that the U.S. is a price-setter and, in an approach similar to (Revenga ，1992), uses two-stage least squares (2SLS) with weighted exchange rates as an instrument for import price.
First, consider the structural labor demand schedule. Let it L be labor demand
in industry i and year t. Then dln it L =1θdln it W +d it Z Γ+it w 1(1) where: 1θ is the
employment elasticity with respect to the wage; it W is the average industry wage;
it Z is a vector of observable factors that shift the demand for labor in industry i and
year t; Γis a vector of employment elasticity that corresponds to it Z ; and it w 1 is
an error term that is designed to capture unobserved demand shocks.
The vector of variables that shifts labor demand includes the measures of aggregate demand in the economy and direct measures of labor demand. The vector of demand shifters include measures of import competition, real gross national product (GNP), domestic production, and an index of the cost of materials. Employment is expected to vary positively with GNP and the industry output. It could vary inversely or positively with the cost of materials depending on whether the output or substitution effect is dominant.
The measure of import competition is an index of import prices. Employment is
expected to vary positively with import price as an increase in the import price increases the production in the U.S.
Next, consider the labor supply to an industry: dln it L =c.dln it W +d
it H ψ+it w 2(2) where: it W is the industry wage at year t; c is the industry supply elasticity with respect to the wage; it H is a vector of observed factors that shift labor supply; ψ
is a vector of industry supply elasticity; and it w 2 represents unmeasured supply
shocks.
It is necessary to estimate the system in reduced form because wages and employment are simultaneously determined. The equations written in reduced form are: dln it L =1γd it Z +2γd it H +it v (3) and dln it W =1βd it Z +2βd it H +it v (4) where it v and it v are error terms that reflect unmeasured shocks to labor demand and supply.
For 2SLS estimation, a first-stage equation is required to estimate the endogenous import price variable used in the second-stage equation. The first-stage equation is: dln it P =1ξd it Z +2ξd it H +3ξd it I +it ∈(5) where it P represents the
average import price for industry i and year t, it I represents the weighted exchange
rate variable for industry i and year t, and it ∈ represents a random error term for
industry i and year t. Predicted values of dln it P are then used to estimate (3) and (4)
using 2SLS estimation.
Data
The data used are obtained from the National Bureau of Economic Research productivity and trade databases. These are compiled for the 1972 manufacturing industries at the standard industry code's four-digit level (450 total) for 1958-91. Other variables include value of shipments, cost of materials, production employment, production hours, and production payroll on an annual basis. These variables have been converted to the three-digit level to accommodate the index of import price data. Variables that are not included in the National Bureau of Economic Research databases but are used in these equations are GNP, an index of import prices, and a weighted exchange rate. Constant GNP is drawn from the Economic Report of the President [1993] for 1972-91 while the import price variable is international price indices taken from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Alterman ，1991) for selected three-digit manufacturing industries for 1977-91. The weighted exchange rate is from the Bureau of Census' International Trade Division(Alterman ，1991) for the top five exporting countries to the U.S. in textiles and apparel in 1991, and the total weighted index is from the Economic Report of the President. Finally, implicit price deflators for value of shipments and the index of
the cost of materials are also taken from the Economic Report of the President.
The Results of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and 2SLS Models
Table 1 presents the results of the import price specification. The employment elasticity of domestic output with respect to hours and employment in the apparel industry is positive and significant. Also in apparel, the coefficient on the alternative real wage is estimated to be -1.558 in the employment equation, suggesting that a one percent increase in the alternative wage (which, in turn, increases own wage) would reduce employment by 1.59 percent in these industries. In the textile industry, the coefficient on the alternative wage in the employment equation is also significant. GNP and the index of the cost of materials in this model have no effect on employment or wages in either industry.
TABLE 1
The coefficient on import prices in the apparel industry is positive and significant for the hours and employment equations, indicating that an increase in
import price has a positive effect on hours worked and overall production employment. The coefficient on the import price variable is small and insignificant in the apparel wage equation. This result, however, is not unexpected if apparel workers are taken from a large labor market where apparel firms are wage-takers. On the other hand, the coefficient on import prices in the hours, employment, and wage equations in the textile industry is small and insignificant, suggesting that a change in the import price in this specification has little effect on hours worked, people employed, or average wages of production workers. In this model, only changes in domestic output and the alternative wage have significant effects on hours, employment, or wages in the textile industry.
Table 2 presents the results for the 2SLS model for the textile and apparel industries. This estimation assumes that the U.S. is a price-setter and is designed to correct for endogeneity bias in the import price variable by estimating import price as a function of weighted exchange rates. This corrected import price variable should not be correlated with the dependent variables or with industry-specific domestic shocks.
TABLE 2
Domestic output remains the most significant variable in the employment equations of both industries, with positive coefficients in the two-stage estimations. The alternative wage variable in the employment equation continues to be positive in the textile industry and negative in apparel. GNP and the index of the cost of materials are insignificant in all equations for both industries.
The coefficient on the import price variable in the 2SLS estimations increases from the previous OLS estimations for textiles and apparel. In the apparel industry, the coefficient in the hours and employment equations increased from 0.442 to 0.528 log points and from 0.359 to 0.541 log points, respectively. 4 Since using 2SLS models often results in a loss of efficiency compared to OLS estimates, it is not surprising that these results change from being significant to insignificant at standard levels. The estimation would benefit with increased observations to determine if the problem is associated with the small sample, or if import prices truly have no effect. The estimate of import price also appears larger in the 2SLS equations of the textile industry, compared to the results of the OLS estimation, although the coefficients are insignificant.
Conclusions
The results from the two models are mixed. The results of the OLS model with the U.S. as a price-taker suggest that foreign competition plays a significant role in determining employment and hours worked in the apparel industry. The textile industry, however, is not significantly affected by import prices in hours worked, employment, or wages. The results from the 2SLS model using weighted exchange rates to instrument the index of import price variable are more consistent with these results, although standard errors are large. Indeed, the coefficients of the import price variable with respect to employment and hours are larger in these estimations for both industries than in the OLS models but are not significant. The results of import competition on wages for the 2SLS models were small and insignificant.
Insofar as these models suggest that import competition is an important but not primary cause of employment loss for these industries over the period, the results of these models appear to be consistent with the results found elsewhere in literature. The estimated effects of import competition on wages are consistent with there being relatively competitive labor markets and with the U.S. textile and apparel industries as price-takers in the world product market.
译文
劳动力资源对进出口竞争的影响：以纺织业为例
资料来源：大西洋经济期刊作者：苯·希膨摘要：20世纪80年代以来，人们普遍关注失业和工资对国际贸易中纺织和服装业进出口的影响。

劳工统计局对1997-91年的纺织品年进口价格进行了统计整理，（阿尔特曼，1991）从而为这篇文章的调查分析奠定了数据基础。

（巴特斯曼和盖瑞，1996）文章主要以这些数据为依据来分析就业和工资对纺织品和服装进口的影响。

同时通过建立理论模型来说明不管一个国家是价格制定者的代表还是价格接受者的代表，影响进口竞争力的核心因素可能是就业也有可能是工资，而工资水平是由劳动的充裕程度来决定的。

另外文章也通过实证分析来提供一些相关的支持。

关键词：劳动力市场竞争工资纺织业
简介
人们普遍质疑，国际贸易对就业和工资的分配有一个负面影响，特别是在一些低薪的行业，国内劳动力相较于国外的劳动力成本相对更低。

早在20世纪80年代初，人们就开始注意由于国外劳动力成本会和国内劳动力成本的不同，劳动力成本占据优势的国外纺织品和服装行业就会对国内纺织业和服装行业造成重大的影响。

从历史上看，纺织品和服装是美国经济的重要产业，对产值和就业有重要作用。

比如在1973年，从事纺织和服装业的人数达230万人，占总制造业人数的11%。

到1993年，就业人数下降到了160万人，占总制造业人数的8.3%，下降幅度达30%。

对这个行业的实际工资仍低于制造业的平均工资。

1993年，服装业的工资比制造业的平均工资低41%，纺织业的低26%。

对就业下降和低薪最流行的解释就是进口竞争的存在。

这片文章的目的在于通过一系列的数据来检测进口对国内纺织和服装行业的就业和工资的影响从而来验证这个结束。

这种验证文献目前比较欠缺。

文章的结构安排如下，首先，对纺织和服装业的供求关系建立理论模型，从而结束进口竞争是如何影响当地工人的。

在世界市场上，美国被看作既是价格制定者又是价格接受者。

理论模型表明，进口产品的竞争对就业起到决定作用，无论美国是一个价格制定者还是价格接受者的代表。

如果美国是价格制定
者，那么决定因素就只有工资。

文章建立两个模型去检验美国纺织和服装市场究竟是价格制定者还是价格接受者。

如果美国纺织和服装市场是价格的接受者，那么进口品的价格竞争就足以影响国内行业的就业和工资。

如果美国是价格的制定者，那进口价格就会有一个内生性的偏差，对模型就要作一些必要地修正。

文章分析显示这部分的影响很小。

理论分析
美国对世界市场价格的影响有两种假设形式：
1、国内供求关系的变化会影响世界市场价格的变化。

2、国内供求关系的变化不会影响世界市场价格的变化。

第一种情况假设美国是一个世界商场上的大的生产商或大的消费者的，这样它就是价格主导者。

即价格制定者。

第二种情况假设美国是世界市场上的一个小的生产商和一个小的消费者，那么他就是价格接受者。

两种可能性之间的区别是重要的，因为它决定着进口价格对国内市场的冲击是内源性的还是外源性的。

我们先假设美国是世界市场的价格制定者，进口需求曲线是一个超额需求曲线。

超额需求曲线与价格负相关，随着国内需求曲线的变化，对进口的需求也相应改变。

假设国内生产和进口可以完全替代，随着国内需求的增加，对进口产品的超额需求也会相应增加。

当然，如果国内供给减少，对进口的需求也会相应减少。

总供给曲线代表了在其他国家供过于求的情况。

供给曲线和价格是正相关的，而且反映了其他国家在供求方面的变化。

其他国家的收入和成本条件与供给计划呈负相关，然而技术改进与供给呈正相关。

也就是说技术改进对供给起到积极作用。

另一种理论模型是假设美国是一个价格的接受者。

在这个模型中，超额需求曲线与当美国是一个价格制定者的情况是一样的，在进口市场上的需求曲线开始趋向于一个平稳状态，即：美国国内市场的供求最终会趋向于平衡。

进口状况的变化不仅会改改国内市场的平衡点，而且也会改变进口市场中的超额需求。

在进口市场中，供给曲线是完全弹性的，然而，这表明尽管国内需求和供给改变影响了进口购买数量，但却没有影响到价格。

……
总结
从这两种模型显示的结果看，好坏参半。

普通最小二乘法模型显示的结果是美国作为一个价格接受者，暗示国外竞争者在服装业的就业和工作时间方面起到关键的决定作用。

然而，在纺织业中，国外竞争者的进口价格对纺织业的工作时间、就业情况或工资的影响就不是很重要。

从间接最小二乘法模型显示
的结果可以看出，它使用加权汇率的方法显示进口价格指数和显示结果都是比较一致的，但是标准差却很大。

事实上，在间接最小二乘法模型中，与就业和工作时间相关的进口价格系数的波动比普通最小二乘法模型中的价格系数的波动要大很多，但都不是最重要的。

在纺织和服装行业都是这样。

间接最小二乘法显示的结果是进口竞争对国内行业的工资情况的影响不但小而且不重要。

在这些模型范围内，我们可以看出进口竞争是一个重要的因素，但在一些行业中，如纺织和服装行业中，这些行业在过去的一段时间出现就业紧缺，进口竞争不是最主要的原因。

这些模型出现的结果在其他一些文献中所提及的情况相一致。

进口竞争对工资的影响在一定程度上与相关的竞争性劳动力市场是一致的，并与美国纺织和服装行业在世界生产市场上作为价格接受者是一致的。