供应链管理作业 第七章答案
供应链管理第6版习题与案例集第7章--供应链管理环境下的采购管理
第7章供应链管理环境下的采购管理思考与练习1.如何界定采购的定义？举例描述采购的过程。
2.传统采购模式的主要特征是什么？3.比较分析供应链环境下的采购管理模式与传统采购管理模式之间的特点。
4.简述战略采购对供应链协调运作的意义和价值。
5.如何理解不同的供应商管理的原则？6.讨论供应商管理中的竞争关系模式和双赢关系模式之间的异同。
7.供应商的选择受哪些因素的影响？试建立相应的评价指标体系。
8.供应商选择的一般步骤包括哪几个阶段？9.实地调研一家企业，分析其在供应商关系管理方面的经验及问题。
10.准时采购的意义和特点是什么？准时采购应该遵循什么原则？讨论案例 L公司的零星采购问题L公司是国内一家有名的民营汽车制造企业。
为了改善公司各职能部门和车间的工作流程，进一步提升公司内部管理，公司在每年的年终都会举行一次为期4天的公司级沟通交流会。
参会人员为公司总经理、职能部门全部工作人员以及车间班组长以上人员（包括班组长）。
这不，在今年的年终沟通交流会上，涂装车间（以下简称“涂装”）的班组长们正在向总经理抱怨着他们的服务部门——零星采购部（以下简称“零采”）给他们的工作带来的种种不便。
涂装A：现在零采的喷枪到货时间越来越长了，误了不少事儿，有时采购回来的东西还不是我们要的。
涂装B：并且采购回来的工作服、手套，还有防毒面具质量越来越差了，工作服一穿上就起毛球。
涂装C：是呀，客户对汽车的表面质量是很看重的，它就好比人的一张脸，所以在涂装车间里，对工作环境洁净度要求很高，工作服表面的毛球对车身表面质量影响很不好，会引起颗粒，还得我们返工，很麻烦，并且导致我们的一次下线通过率很低。
涂装B：其实，我们有时觉得某一批工作服的质量还可以，可下一次零采给我们送的工作服牌子又换了，工作服的牌子和供应商变了很多个，所以质量也很不稳定。
总经理：你们可以跟零采的工作人员说呀，让他们采购你们以前用过的质量较好的工作服。
涂装C：这些都不知道跟他们说了多少次了，可每次零采的人都说现在给你们采购回来工作服已经不错了，还挑三拣四的，这样我们也不知道给线上的员工怎么交代，只好让他们每天到公司先把工作服洗了，用风机吹干。
《供应链管理》思考题答案要点
《供应链管理》部分复习思考题答案要点第1章导言1. 供应链和供应链管理的基本涵义是什么？供应链就是围绕核心企业，通过信息流、物流、资金流，从采购原材料开始，到制成中间产品以及最终产品，最后由销售网络把产品送到消费者手中的、将供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商、直到最终用户连成一个整体的功能网链,它是在多个存在关联交易的企业基础上形成的范围更广的企业结构模式.它不仅是联接供应商到用户的物流链、信息链、资金链,而且是一种增值链。
供应链管理就是利用计算机网络技术,对供应链中的商流、物流、信息流、资金流等进行组织、协调与控制，在节点企业之间建立战略伙伴关系，最大限度地减少内耗和浪费,提高各节点企业的运营绩效，实现供应链整体效率最优化.第2章供应链的构建1. 举例说明供应链设计应主要包括哪些内容.(1)供应链成员及合作伙伴选择（2）网络结构设计（3）组织机制和管理程序（4）供应链运行基本规则2。
以某一企业为例，说明供应链设计的步骤.（1）分析企业所处的市场竞争环境（2)分析企业的现状（3）提出供应链设计项目（4）明确供应链设计的目标（5）分析组成供应链的各类资源要素（6）提出组成供应链的基本框架（7）分析和评价供应链设计的技术可能性（8)设计供应链（9）检验已产生的供应链第3章供应链管理方法1．QR战略的优点是什么？实施QR战略有哪几个步骤？对供应商来说，成功实施快速反应战略可以获得如下优势：（1）增加市场份额。
(2）降低库存。
（3）降低管理费用。
（4）更好的生产计划。
对于零售商来说，成功实施快速反应战略可以达到如下效果：（1）提高服务质量。
(2）减少了削价的损失.(3）降低了流通费用.(4)加快了库存周转速度.（5）降低了管理成本。
快速反应的实施步骤(1）运用条形码和EDI技术（2）建立固定周期的自动补货系统（3）建立先进的预测、补货联盟(4)实施零售空间管理（5)联合开发商品（6)快速反应的集成2．通过服装业应用QR战略，你得到什么启示?(1）在市场竞争压力增大,为了降低成本、快速响应客户需求，增加销售额，选择和实施QR战略。
《供应链管理》习题答案
习题目录第1章绪论 (1)第2章供应链的设计和构建 (4)第3章供应链管理方法 (9)第4章供应链合作伙伴关系管理 (11)第5章供应链采购管理 (13)第6章供应链库存管理 (17)第7章供应链物流管理 (19)第8章供应链风险管理 (21)第9章供应链绩效管理 (23)第1章绪论【习题答案】1．选择题（1）B（2）D（3）B（4）A（5）B（6）C（7）D（8）A（9）C2．简答题（1）供应链的概念。
答：供应链是指围绕核心企业，通过对信息流、物流、资金流的控制，从采购原材料开始，制成中间产品以及最终产品，最后由销售网络把产品送到消费者手中的将供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商、直到最终用户连成一个整体的网链结构和模式。
（2）供应链包括哪4个流程？答：供应链一般包括物资流通、商业流通、信息流通、资金流通4个流程。
（3）简述推式供应链和拉式供应链的优缺点。
答：推式供应链的优点：能够稳定供应链的生产符合，提高机器设备利用率，缩短提前期，增加交货可能性。
缺点：需要有较多的原材料、在制品和制成品库存，库存占用的流动资金较大，当市场需求发生变化时，企业应变能力较弱。
拉式供应链的的优点：大大降低各类库存和流动资金占用，减少库存变质和失效的风险。
缺点：将面对能否及时获取资源和及时交货以满足市场需求的风险。
（4）供应链有哪些特征？答：供应链有4个主要特性：复杂性、动态性、用户需求驱动性及交叉性。
（5）陈述供应链管理的概念。
答：供应链由原材料零部件供应商、生产商、批发经销商、用户、运输商等一系列企业组成。
原材料零部件依次通过“链”中的每个企业，逐步变成产品，产品再通过一系列流通配送环节，最后交到最终用户手中，这一系列的活动就构成了一个完整供应链的全部活动。
（6）供应链管理的主要内容有哪几方面？答：供应链管理的主要内容有：物流网络职能管理、物流信息流管理、供应链流程管理以及供应链关系管理。
（7）简述推拉式供应链管理模式的内涵及其包含哪两种模式。
采购与供应链管理习题库07第七章 习题及参考答案
同步测试一、单项选择题1.( )是生产计划中一个重要变量，在MRPII系统中是一个重要设置参数。
DA.资源配置B.生产进度C.生产计划D.提前期2.主生产计划是对企业生产计划大纲的( )，用以协调生产需求与可用资源之间的差距。
AA.细化B.详细C.概括D.描述3.( )是计划系统中的关键环节。
BA.ERPB.MPSC.MROD.MRP4.主生产计划的计划对象主要是把生产规划中的产品系列具体化以后的出厂产品，通称( ).CA.初级项目B.期终项目C.最终项目D.最初项目5.下列哪种方法是将主生产计划中的具体产品需求转化为构成产品的零部件和原材料的需求（）BA、粗糙能力计划B、物料需求计划C、能力需求计划D、库存计划6.MRPII的核心部分是( )，也就是计算物料需求量和需求时间的部分。
CA.ERP系统B.MRC系统C.MRP系统D.BOM系统7.ERP的概念最先由（）提出。
CA.中国B.法国C.美国D.德国8.在制品控制主要是采用( )进行控制。
DA.在制品销售B.在制品质量C.在制品数量D.在制品定额9.企业实施ERP系统，根本的目的就是成本的降低、生产周期的缩短、响应客户需求的时间更快以及（）。
AA.为客户提供更好的服务B.节省时间C.快速生产产品D.减少员工10.物料需求计划的输入不包括（）。
DA. 主生产计划B. 物料清单C. 库存状态文件D. 源代码二、多项选择题1.有效的供应链计划系统集成企业所有的计划和决策业务,包括( )等。
ABCDEFGA.需求预测B.库存计划C.资源配置D.设备管理E.渠道优化F.生产作业计划G.物料需求与采购计划2.在制定生产计划的过程中主要面临( )的问题。
ABCA.柔性约束B.生产进度C.生产能力D.控制能力3.( )是集中体现供应链横向集成的环节。
ACA.外包决策B.企业管理决策C.外包生产进度分析D.企业战略4.供应链环境下的生产控制包括（）。
ABCDA.提前期管理B.生产进度控制C.库存控制和在制品管理D.供应链的生产节奏控制5.供应链管理环境下的生产计划信息组织与决策过程具有如下( )特征。
供应链管理作业 第七章答案
1.供应链管理环境下的同步生产的特点是什么？同步生产应遵循什么原则？特点:1)决策信息来源是多源信息.多源信息化是供应链管理环境下的主要特征.多源信息是供应链环境下生产计划的特点.供应链环境下资源信息不仅仅来自企业内部,还来自供应商,分销商和用户.2)决策模式是群体性,分布性.个节点企业拥有暂时性的监视权和决策权,每个节点企业的生产计划决策都受到其他企业生产计划的决策的影响,需要一种协调机制和冲突解决机制.3)信息反馈机制采用递阶、链式反馈与并行、网络反馈.以团队工作为特征的多代理组织模式使供应链具有网络化结构特征,生产计划信息是沿着供应链不同的节点方向传递,信息传递频率大.4)计划运行环境不确定性、动态性.供应链管理的目的是使企业能够适应剧烈多变的市场环境需要.遵循原则:1为了使供应链上各成员企业实现同步生产的目的（与订单相吻合），制造商适时制定生产计划，并随着客户需求的改变及时作出调整，这些计划应能实时传给供应链上各供应商，以便使供应商制定的生产计划与该计划相协调。
2必须建立起代理之间透明的合作机制.供应链企业之间的合作方式主要由同时同地\同时异地\异时同地和异时异地四种情况.因此供应链企业的合作模式为四种:同步模式,异步模式,分布式同步模式,分布式异步模式.基于多代理的供应链组织管理模式,实现了由传统的递阶控制组织模式向扁平化网络组织过渡,实现网络化管理.2.企业要实现同步化计划要解决哪些问题？(1)同步化供应（是服务和成本控制的一个重要目标）影响同步化供应的几个因素：1大批量订货。
2生产上维持高效率，而不是满足客户需求。
3缺少同步，使得库存水平高，和变化频繁的库存水平。
(2)可靠的、灵活的运作（是同步化的关键）可靠、灵活的运作应该主要集中于生产、物流管理、库存控制、分销。
销售与市场的角色是揭开需求。
(3)与供应商集成（是同步化运作的保障）大部分生产商经营的失败，除了内部的不稳定性因素外，就是供应的不稳定性。
供应链管理(第5版)课后习题答案
供应链管理课后习题答案第一章、供应链管理导论1.供应链的结构特征是什么？将供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商、直到最终用户连成一个整体的功能网链结构。
2.何谓供应链管理？简述供应链管理与传统企业管理的区别和联系。
供应链管理就是使以核心企业为中心的供应链运作达到最优化，以最低的成本，另供应链从采购开始，到满足最终用户的所有过程，包括工作流、实物流、信息流、资金流等均高效率运作，把合适的产品，以合理的价格，及时准确的送到消费者手中。
区别：①传统企业的运营思想是生产是为了销售，而供应链企业运营的思想是按订单准时生产、快速响应客户需求②传统企业的管理手段是控制库存、降低库存成本，而供应链管理的手段是供应链企业协同创新、共创价值③传统企业提高生产效率的主要方法是扩大批量、增加规模效应，而供应链企业提高效率的主要方法是提升企业的柔性和敏捷性联系：供应链管理主要是以物流运行作为流程的，是开放性的，传统企业只是供应链管理中的一个环节，是闭环的。
3.供应链管理的关键在于实现企业内部及企业之间资源的集成。
从这个角度，分析互联网在供应链管理中的重要地位。
从管理难度的角度：现在的客户关系管理、企业资源计划等系统使得管理更加容易，尤其是对于一些全球性企业和跨区域企业从效率的角度：通过IT系统，从客户需求到计划、采购、生产、运输等供应链的整个过程更加迅速、高效。
当然也包括上下游企业和核心企业之间的沟通。
从成本的角度：管理难度下降，效率提升，这实际上降低了企业的成本4.电子商务将成为21世纪最主要的商业模式之一，它将对企业传统的业务流程带来巨大变革。
请阐述供应链管理对我国企业成功实施电子商务的重要意义。
基于电子商务的供应链的管理的主要内容涉及订单处理、生产组织、采购管理、运输与配送管理、库存管理、客户服务、支付管理等，供应链管理可促进电子商务的发展，使资源在供应链网络中合理流动，来缩短交货周期、降低库存，并且通过提供自助交易的自助式服务以降低成本，提高速度和精确性，增强企业竞争力。
《供应链管理》第二版参考答案[20页]
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《供应链管理》各章思考题参考答案第一章思考题：1．什么是供应链？怎么样理解我国对供应链的定义？答：供应链是围绕核心企业，通过对信息流、物流、资金流的控制，从采购原材料开始，制成中间产品以及最终产品，最后由销售网络把产品送到消费者手中的将供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商、直到最终用户连成一个整体的网链结构和模式。
关于这个定义的含义，我们可以从以下几个方面来理解：（1）它是一个范围更广的企业结构模式。
供应链包含所有加盟的节点企业，从原材料的供应开始，经过网链中不同企业的制造加工、组装、分销等过程直到最终用户。
它把整个供应链看成是一个不可分割的整体，是一个更广泛的企业结构模式。
（2）这个概念强调了供应链的战略伙伴关系。
（3）供应链的网链结构中究竟包括哪些企业，这些企业应该各自出现在供应链的什么位置，相互之间的关系应该怎样，则取决于诸多因素。
（4）供应链的网链结构主要包括：供应链的长度(即所包含的层面数)、各层面供应商或客户的数量、各层面之间的联系方式。
2．供应链有什么样的特点？答：现代意义上的供应链与传统意义上的供应链或单个企业来说，具有以下的特点：（1）．复杂性（2）．动态性（3）．服务性（4）．交叉性（5）．波动性、放大性和延迟性3．供应链的发展经历了哪几个阶段？答：无论是国内还是国外，对供应链的认识和研究的过程都是一个从简单到复杂、从内部到外部，从理论到实践的过程。
（1）内部流程阶段（2）外部合作阶段（3）供应链整合阶段供应链认识的演化过程4．消费品供应链与生产品供应链有什么不同点？答：消费品应链和生产物品供应链的特征差异，至少表现在供应链的主要流转物品、消费特征、需求变化、供应链运营形式和增值效应等5个方面，参见下表。
第二章思考题：1．供应链管理是如何产生的？答：供应链管理的产生和发展主要基于以下几个重要原因：（1）．企业面临新的竞争环境（2）．降低库存及提高顾客服务的需要（3）.传统管理模式无能为力2．什么是供应链管理？其内涵是什么？答：供应链管理，是连结企业内、外部结盟的企业伙伴，为满足市场的最终消费者需求，整合商流、物流、资金流、信息流之所有营运活动，创造出整体供应链的最佳化（最高效率及最小成本），以达成具高度竞争力的供应系统。
供应链管理课后习题答案
供应链管理课后习题答案第一章课后习题答案一、判断题题号 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10√× √×√√√√√××√页码P4 P5 P7 P9 P9 P11 P20 P8 P23 P25 二、名词解释SCP:分别指市场结构(Structure )，市场行为(Conduct)，市场绩效(Performance)。
哈佛学派认为. 市场结构(Structure )，市场行为(Conduct)，市场绩效(Performance)之间存在着必然的联系.並建立了SCP分析框架來分析行业与企业的发展情況P5三、简答题1答：分析汽车供应链结构简图：（1）汽车行业全球供应链的形成与发展在激烈的市场竞争中，汽车制造业是一个复杂程度和集成度非常高的行业，汽车制造业需要懂得合作与共享，并且在不同的环节有着不同的侧重点，满足不同客户需求，不断完善汽车产业全球价值链的分工体系，才能在激烈的市场中成为佼佼者。
（2）汽车供应链的利益分配及影响因素“微笑曲线”价值分布汽车供应链中有不同的侧重点，对于整车装配、非关键零部件的生产加工、流通环节等均为低附加值环节；对于产品设计与研发、品牌推广和关键零部件的生产和采购等则划分为高附加值环节，汽车企业应重视“微笑曲线”所带来的价值，针对不同的区域有不同的侧重点，有利于节省成本，提高质量。
特征：多种生产策略组合；典型的生产滚动计划；整车厂的生产计划实施，驱动整个供应链；普遍注重精益的物流运作；物流业务外包成主流；严格的零部件供应商准入机制与供应商分级管理；基于框架协议下的全球化采购；汽车售后供应链体系备受关注。
汽车产业发展新趋势汽车产业发展呈现规模化、集群化发展趋势，产业集群化使产业链纵向延伸发展，同时提高了与相关产业进行横向竞争与合作的效率2、答：分析服装供应链结构简图：先分析服装供应链的工艺流程，再分析服装供应链的类型。
服装供应链有四种主要类型的企业：（1）单纯的生产加工企业（2）自有品牌的“虚拟企业”（3）供、产、销一体化的企业（4）服装贸易公司特征：（1）服装产品的生命周期短(2)服装消费需求变动性大(3)服装消费需求的可预测性低(4)服装购买的冲动性高(5)服装产品被模仿的情况严重P14-15发展趋势：（1）产品个性化需求增大消费能力、消费心理与社会的进步三个因素，共同催生了个性化定制这个基于人自身表达诉求的概念。
供应链管理智慧树知到答案章节测试2023年武汉工商学院
第一章测试1.下列情况说明的是供应链中的复杂性特征的是：（）A:供应链的形成、存在、重构都是基于一定的市场需求所致。
B:节点企业可以是这个供应链的成员，也可以另一个供应链的成员。
C:供应链中的节点企业需要动态的更新。
D:供应链往往由多个、从类型甚至多国企业构成。
答案:D2.下列情况说明的供应链的动态性特征的是：（）A:供应链中的节点企业需要动态的更新。
B:供应链往往由多个、从类型甚至多国企业构成。
C:节点企业可以是这个供应链的成员，也可以另一个供应链的成员。
D:供应链的形成、存在、重构都是基于一定的市场需求所致。
答案:A3.下列情况哪个说明的是供应链的面向用户需求的特征：（）A:节点企业可以是这个供应链的成员，也可以另一个供应链的成员。
B:供应链的形成、存在、重构都是基于一定的市场需求所致。
C:供应链中的节点企业需要动态的更新。
D:供应链往往由多个、从类型甚至多国企业构成。
答案:B4.供应链的特征有哪些？（）。
A:交叉性B:复杂性C:动态性D:面向用户需求答案:ABCD5.建立供应链管理战略系统的主要内容包括以下哪些方面（）A:经营思想战略B:共享信息战略C:供应库战略D:组织战略答案:ABCD第二章测试1.供应链管理领域的十大主要问题：需求与供应计划管理，供应链库存管理，供应链网络设计，供应链合作伙伴关系管理，物流管理，供应链资金流管理，供应链信息流管理，供应链企业组织结构，供应链绩效评价与激励机制，供应链风险管理。
（）A:错B:对答案:B2.响应型供应链，主要体现供应链对市场需求的响应功能，也就是把产品分配到满足用户需求的市场，对未预知的需求做出快速反应等。
（）A:错B:对答案:B3.集成化的供应链管理主要是围绕哪几个回路展开。
（）A:运作回路B:性能评价C:策略回路D:系统回路答案:ABC4.供应链管理的运营机制。
（）A:激励机制B:决策机制C:自律机制D:合作机制答案:ABCD5.供应链管理与传统管理模式的区别下列说法正确的是（）A:供应链管理是把各个节点企业的资源简单地连接起来B:供应链管理把供应链中所有节点企业看成一个整体C:供应链管理强调和依赖战略管理D:供应链管理强调企业间建立合伙伙伴关系答案:BCD第三章测试1.供应管理组织架构阶段具体工作包括：主客体分析、组织设计、绩效评价与激励机制。
《供应链库存管理与控制》习题答案
第1章2．简答题（1）供应链的基本概念是围绕核心企业，通过对信息流、物流、资金流的控制，从采购原材料开始，制成中间产品以及最终产品，最后由销售网络把产品送到消费者手中的将供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商、直到最终用户连成一个整体的功能网链结构模式。
其特点有：①复杂性；②增值性；③需求性；④交叉性；⑤动态性；○6风险性7集成性（2）简述反应性供应链与有效性供应链的区别和联系根据供应链的功能模式（物理功能、市场中介功能和客户需求功能）可以把供应链划分为两种：有效性供应链和反应性供应链。
有效性供应链以实现供应链的物理性能为主要目标，即以最低的成本将原材料转化为零部件、在制品和产品，并最终运送到消费者手中。
有效性供应链面对稳定的市场需求，提供的产品和相关技术具有相对稳定性。
反应性供应链以实现供应链的市场功能为主要目标，即对市场需求变化做出快速反应。
这类供应链所提供的产品具有以下特点：其市场需求有很多不确定性；产品本身发展很快；产品说明周期较短；产品价格随着季节的不同而有很大变化。
因此，反应性供应链需要保持较高的市场应变能力和实现柔性生产，从而降低产品过时和失效的风险。
（3）供应链管理的基本思想：1.“横向一体化”的管理思想。
2.非核心业务一般应采取外包的方式分散给业务伙伴，并与业务伙伴结成战略联盟关系。
3.供应链企业间形成的是一种合作性竞争。
4.以顾客满意度作为目标的服务化管理。
5.供应链管理追求物流、信息流、资金流、工作流和组织流的集成。
6.借助信息技术实现目标管理，这是信息流管理的先决条件。
7.更加关注物流企业的参与。
（5）简述供应链管理涉及的主要问题1.随机性问题，包括供应商可靠性运输渠道可靠性需求的不确定性价格不确定性汇率变动影响随机固定成本提前期的确定顾客满意度的确定等研究2供应链供应性问题，包括规模经济性选址决策生产技术选择产品决策联盟网络等研究3供应链全球化问题，包括贸易壁垒税收政治环境产品各国差异性4协调机制问题，供应—生产协调，生产—销售协调，库存—销售协调思考题在实际库存管理中，企业应如何避免不确定性对库存的影响第2章2．简答题（1）零库存概念包含两层含义：其一，库存对象物的数量趋于零或等于零（即近乎无库存物资）；其二，库存设施、设备的数量及库存劳动耗费同时趋于零或等于零（即不存在库存活动）。
乔普拉《供应链管理(第7版)》每章讨论题及答案CH7
CHAPTER SEVENDiscussion Questions1.What role does forecasting play in the supply chain of a build-to-order servermanufacturer such as Dell?Although Dell builds to order, they obtain server components and plan capacity in anticipation of customer orders and therefore they rely on forecasting for these activities. This forecast is used to predict future demand, which determines the quantity of each component needed to assemble a server and the plant capacity required to perform the assembly.2.How could Apple use collaborative forecasting with its suppliers to improve itssupply chain?Collaborative forecasting requires all supply chain partners to share information regarding parameters that might affect demand, such as the timing and magnitude of promotions. Apple could share promotion information with their component suppliers. For example, any holiday promotions, back-to-school, and so on that they have planned should be shared with suppliers. These suppliers could, in turn, notify their suppliers of discrete components that a spike in demand is anticipated.These demand forecasts for end items determine the demand for components and coupled with knowledge of fabrication times, allows all members of the supply chain to provide the right quantity at the right time to their customers. Once the promotion period arrives, Apple can share demand information up the supplychain to ensure that supply at retail stores matches the anticipated demand.3.What role does forecasting play in the supply chain of a mail order firm such asLL Bean?LL Bean has historically operated almost exclusively in a make-to-stock mode and with very few exceptions, stocked products that did not go out of style asrapidly as many other clothing and accessory lines. A pre-internet existencewould have relied on communication with manufacturers about what products might be featured on the front of their catalog. Given the long lead times involved in printing and distributing the catalog and producing the product line, L. L. Bean had to come up with a forecast for the quantity that each supplier was to produce.A quick visit to the web site demonstrates that the situation has become morechallenging; the featured products on the web site can be changed daily orprogrammed to rotate each time the web page is refreshed. LL Bean and their supply chain, including the logistics component, are well aware of the demand forecast and can all receive sales data as orders are placed. LL Bean probably has an extranet to communicate sales data with suppliers and allows customers to create accounts to manage purchases, wish lists, and track orders.4.What systematic and random components would you expect in demand forchocolates?Systematic components are level, the current deseasonalized demand; trend, the rate of growth or decline in demand for the next period; and seasonality, thepredictable seasonal fluctuations in demand. The demand for chocolates isprobably highly seasonal, one would expect demand to spike for certain holidays such as Valentine’s Day, Halloween, and Christmas.5.Why should a manager be suspicious if a forecaster claims to forecast historicaldemand without any forecast error?The primary difficulty with such a claim is that forecasts are always wrong, hence, an estimate of error should be provided with the forecast. Given a set of data, it is possible to create a forecasting model that is 100% accurate on historical data.Such a model, however, would work only on that data but would be very poor at predicting the future. In fact, a forecast that is perfect on historical data has simply included the underlying uncertainty into the systematic component. This results in the predicted systematic component being highly unreliable.6.Give examples of products that display seasonality of demand.Products that display seasonality include, heating oil, electricity, natural gas,wrapping paper, school supplies, sporting goods (summer, winter, etc.), facialtissues, beverages (coffee, beer, iced tea, etc.), ice cream, pizza delivery, and tax preparation services. All products display some form of seasonality if you look at them in a global perspective.7.What is the problem if a manager uses last year’s sales data instead of last year’sdemand to forecast demand for the coming year?Last year’s sales data is fine as long as there were no stock outs. If an item is not on the shelf or is explicitly indicated as being sold out, the manager may beblissfully unaware of customer demand that existed but was not expressed. Inaddition, if there were special promotions last year that are not planned for the following year, the data must be adjusted to accommodate this factor.8.How do static and adaptive forecasting methods differ?Static methods assume that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed. Once these parameters are estimated, there is no need to adjust them and they can be used for all future forecasts. In adaptive forecasting, the estimates of level, trend, andseasonality are updated after each demand observation, that is, as data arecollected, they are incorporated into the forecasting process. Adaptive methods allow a forecaster to react (or overreact) to recent developments. Should adisruptive technology affect demand, the adaptive forecast will respondimmediately, albeit dragging several historical data points along for the ride. The static approach would not take this new data into account and presumably theforecasts would suffer. We would like to think that a forecaster using an invalid static method would recognize its futility in light of a paradigm shift, but painful personal experience suggests otherwise.9.What information do the MSE, MAD, and MAPE provide to a manager? How canthe manager use this information?A measure of forecast accuracy is the mean absolute deviation (MAD). Tocompute the MAD, the forecaster sums the absolute value of the forecast errors (FE) and then divides by the number of forecasts (∑ |FE| ÷ N). By taking theabsolute value of the forecast errors, the offsetting of positive and negative values is avoided. This means that both an over forecast of 50 and an under forecast of50 are off by 50. When compared to the result of other alphas, the forecaster willknow that the alpha with the lowest MAD is yielding the most accurate forecast.Mean square error (MSE) can also be utilized in the same fashion. MSE is the sum of the forecast errors squared divided by (N−1) [(∑(FE)) ÷ (N−1)]. Squaring the forecast errors eliminates the possibility of offsetting negative numbers, since none of the results can be negative. As with MAD, the forecaster may compare the MSE of forecasts derived using various values of alpha and assume the alpha with the lowest MSE is yielding the most accurate forecast.The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is the average absolute percent error. To arrive at the MAPE, one must take the sum of the ratios between forecast error and actual demand times 100 (to get the percentage) and divide by N [(∑ | Actual demand − forecast |÷ Actual demand) × 100 ÷ N]. As with MAD and MSE, the lower the relative error is, the more accurate the forecast will be.It should be noted that in some cases the ability of the forecast to change quickly to respond to changes in data patterns is considered to be more important than accuracy. Therefore, one’s choice of forecasting method should reflect the relative balance of importance between accuracy and responsiveness, as determined by the forecaster.10.What information do the bias and TS provide to a manager? How can themanager use this information?Bias is the sum of the forecast errors [∑(FE)]. If one assumes that a low biasindicates an overall low forecast error, one could compute the bias for a number of potential values of alpha and assume that the one with the lowest bias would be the most accurate. However, caution must be observed in that wildly inaccurate forecasts may yield a low bias if they tend to be both over forecast and underforecast (negative and positive). For example, over three periods a firm may use aparticular value of alpha to over forecast by 75,000 units (−75,000), under forecast by 100,000 units (+100,000), and then over forecast by 25,000 units (−25,000), yielding a bias of zero (−75,000 + 100,000 − 25,000 = 0). By comparison, another alpha yielding over forecasts of 2,000 units, 1,000 units, and 3,000 units would result in a bias of 5,000 units. If normal demand was 100,000 units per period, the first alpha would yield forecasts that were off by as much as 100 percent while the second alpha would be off by a maximum of only 3 percent, even though the bias in the first forecast was zero.The tracking signal (TS) is the ratio of the bias and the MAD. If the TS at any period is outside the range, this is a signal that the forecast is biased and is either under forecasting or over forecasting. This may happen because the forecasting method is flawed or the underlying demand pattern has shifted. When demand has a growth trend and the manager is using a forecasting method such as moving average the TS will result in a large negative. Because trend is not included, the average of historical demand is always lower than future demand. The negative TS detects that the forecasting method consistently underestimates demand and alerts the manager.。
《物流与供应链管理》第7章 仓储管理
作为物流仓储管理的基础设施，仓库可以分为不同的类型。
（1）按仓库功能不同可以分为：
• 储存型仓库 主要对货物进行保管，解决生产和消费的不均衡。
物流大厅的员工们也很高兴，因为piLIFT SMART升降机产生的噪音只有57 db(A)，远远低于物 流中心由自动拣选设备发出的噪音水平。“由于在物资入库区和新建的库区中使用了ParceLifts升 降设备，因此大大减轻了物流员工腰背的疲劳程度、放松了椎间盘，减少了膝盖半月板的磨损。在 装卸桥上装卸集装箱和载重卡车时，任何缓解劳动强度的措施都是非常受欢迎的。”Simon Poek 先生总结道。
“另外，我们还发现通过Piab公司出售的Vaculex系列产品在技术上的应用也是非常出色的， 对我们很有帮助，我们以最快的速度联系到了当地的负责人。在Piab公司员工来我们这里现场视察、 了解情况时，很快做出判断在我们的物流现场不能安装桥式起重机，因为安装桥式起重机之后会阻 碍叉车和其他运输车辆地自由行驶。Piab公司的研发团队专门为我们设计了一套悬吊在天花板上的 导轨系统。这一解决方案使用起来非常灵活、方便。例如物流大厅不同的区域位置处的货运托盘都 可以用这套导轨式真空起吊设备来装卸货物。”Simon Poe期、缺货 缺货 生产
（1）运输整合功能
企业有时会面临原材料和产成品的零 担运输问题，而长距离零担运输货物的费 用比整车运输要高得多。通过将零担货物 运送到附近的仓库，再从仓库运出，仓储 活动就能够使企业将少量运输合并成大量 运输，从而有效地减少运输费用。
如图所示，对于进货物流系统，仓库 能将不同供应商的零担运输结合起来形成 整车运输运送到企业的工厂。对于出货物 流系统，仓库则可以整合来自不同工厂的 货物运输，然后再分解成零担运输运送到 不同的市场。
供应链管理-第三版-Unit7-习题与答案
Chapter 7Demand Forecasting in a Supply ChainTrue/False1. The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supplychain.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate2. Throughout the supply chain, all pull processes are performed in anticipation of customerdemand, whereas all push processes are performed in response to customer demand.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy3. For pull processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to planthe level of available capacity and inventory.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate4. For push processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to planthe level of available capacity and inventory.Answer: FalseDifficulty: HardThe resulting forecast accuracy enables supply chains to be both more responsive and more efficient in serving their customers.5. The result when each stage in the supply chain makes its own separate forecast is often amatch between supply and demand, because these forecasts are often very different.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate6. When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to be much moreaccurate.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy7. Leaders in many supply chains have started moving toward collaborative forecasting toimprove their ability to match supply and demand.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate8. Mature products with stable demand are usually the most difficult to forecast.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate9. Forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions are extremely difficult when eitherthe supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy10. Forecasts are always right.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy11. Forecasts should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecasterror.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate12. Long-term forecasts are usually more accurate than short-term forecasts.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate13. Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts, as they tend tohave a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate14. In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from theconsumer), the smaller the distortion of information they receive.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy15. Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further upthe supply chain reduce forecast error.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate16. Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when there is good historical dataavailable or when experts do not have market intelligence that is critical in making theforecast.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate17. Time series forecasting methods are based on the assumption that past demand history is agood indicator of future demand.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy18. Time series forecasting methods are the most difficult methods to implement.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate19. Causal forecasting methods find a correlation between demand and environmental factorsand use estimates of what environmental factors will be to forecast future demand.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate20. Simulation forecasting methods imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand toarrive at a forecast.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate21. The objective of forecasting is to filter out the random component (noise) and estimate thesystematic component.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate22. The forecast error measures the difference between the forecast and the estimate.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy23. The goal of any forecasting method is to predict the systematic component of demand andestimate the random component.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate24. A static method of forecasting assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonalitywithin the systematic component vary as new demand is observed.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy25. In adaptive forecasting, the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after eachdemand observation.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate26. The moving average forecast method is used when demand has an observable trend orseasonality.Answer: FalseDifficulty: ModerateMultiple Choice1. The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes froma. the forecast of demand.b. sales targets.c. profitability projections.d. production efficiency goals.e. all of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy2. For push processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order toa. plan the service level.b. plan the level of available capacity and inventory.c. plan the level of productivity.d. plan the level of production.e. none of the aboveAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate3. For pull processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order toa. plan the service level.b. plan the level of available capacity and inventory.c. plan the level of productivity.d. plan the level of production.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate4. The result of each stage in the supply chain making its own separate forecast isa. an accurate forecast.b. a more accurate forecast.c. a match between supply and demand.d. a mismatch between supply and demand.e. none of the aboveAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate5. When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to bea. much more detailed.b. much more complex.c. much more accurate.d. much more flexible.e. all of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate6. The resulting accuracy of a collaborative forecast enables supply chains to bea. more responsive but less efficient in serving their customers.b. both more responsive and more efficient in serving their customers.c. less responsive but less efficient in serving their customers.d. both less responsive and less efficient in serving their customers.e. None of the above are true.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate7. Leaders in many supply chains have started movinga. toward independent forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.b. toward consecutive forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.c. toward sequential forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.d. toward collaborative forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.e. None of the above are true.Answer: dDifficulty: Moderate8. Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerninga. scheduling.b. sales-force allocation.c. promotions.d. new product introduction.e. budgetary planning.Answer: aDifficulty: Moderate9. Marketing can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerninga. scheduling.b. promotions.c. inventory control.d. aggregate planning.e. purchasing.Answer: bDifficulty: easy10. Finance can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerninga. scheduling.b. promotions.c. plant/equipment investment.d. aggregate planning.e. purchasing.Answer: aDifficulty: Moderate11. Personnel can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerninga. scheduling.b. promotions.c. plant/equipment investment.d. workforce planning.e. purchasing.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate12. Mature products with stable demanda. are usually easiest to forecast.b. are usually hardest to forecast.c. cannot be forecast.d. do not need to be forecast.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy13. When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highlyvariable, forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisionsa. are extremely simple.b. are relatively straightforward.c. are extremely difficult.d. should not be attempted.e. none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Easy14. One of the characteristics of forecasts isa. forecasts are always right.b. forecasts are always wrong.c. short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts.d. long-term forecasts are usually more accurate than short-term forecasts.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate15. One of the characteristics of forecasts isa. aggregate forecasts are usually less accurate than disaggregate forecasts.b. disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts.c. short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts.d. long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts.e. none of the aboveAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate16. One of the characteristics of forecasts isa. aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts.b. disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts.c. short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts.d. long-term forecasts are usually more accurate than short-term forecasts.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Moderate17. Forecasts are always wrong and thereforea. should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecasterror.b. should not include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecasterror.c. should only be used when there are no accurate estimates.d. should be missing the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy18. Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts becausea. short-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the meanthan long-term forecasts.b. short-term forecasts have more standard deviation of error relative to the mean thanlong-term forecasts.c. long-term forecasts have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the meanthan short-term forecasts.d. long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean thanshort-term forecasts.e. none of the aboveAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate19. Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts becausea. aggregate forecasts tend to have a larger standard deviation of error relative to themean.b. aggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to themean.c. disaggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative tothe mean.d. disaggregate forecasts tend to have less standard deviation of error relative to themean.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Easy20. In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from theconsumer),a. the greater the distortion of information they receive.b. the smaller the distortion of information they receive.c. the information they receive is more accurate.d. the information they receive is more useful.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Moderate21. Which of the following is not a forecasting method?a. qualitativeb. time seriesc. causald. simulatione. All of the above are forecasting methods.Answer: eDifficulty: Moderate22. Forecasting methods that are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment are known asa. qualitative forecasting methods.b. time series forecasting methods.c. causal forecasting methods.d. simulation forecasting methods.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Moderate23. Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known asa. qualitative forecasting methods.b. time series forecasting methods.c. causal forecasting methods.d. simulation forecasting methods.e. none of the above.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate24. Forecasting methods that assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certainfactors in the environment (e.g., the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.) to make aforecast are known asa. qualitative forecasting methods.b. time series forecasting methods.c. causal forecasting methods.d. simulation forecasting methods.e. none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate25. Forecasting methods that imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at aforecast are known asa. qualitative forecasting methods.b. time series forecasting methods.c. causal forecasting methods.d. simulation forecasting methods.e. none of the aboveAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate26. Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate whena. there is good historical data available.b. there is little historical data available.c. experts do not have critical market intelligence.d. forecasting demand into the near future.e. trying to achieve a high level of detail.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate27. Time series forecasting methods are most appropriate whena. there is little historical data available.b. the basic demand pattern varies significantly from one year to the next.c. the basic demand pattern does not vary significantly from one year to the next.d. experts have critical market intelligence.e. forecasting demand several years into the future.Answer: cDifficulty: Hard28. Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good startingpoint for a demand forecast?a. qualitative forecasting methodsb. time series forecasting methodsc. causal forecasting methodsd. simulation forecasting methodse. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate29. Which of the following is correct?a. Observed demand (O) = Level component (L) + Random component (R)b. Observed demand (O) = Seasonal component (S) + Random component (R)c. Observed demand (O) = Systematic component (S) + Trend component (T)d. Observed demand (O) = Systematic component (S) + Random component (R)e. Observed demand (O) = Trend component (T) + Random component (R)Answer: dDifficulty: Easy30. Which of the following is not a step to help an organization perform effective forecasting?a. Understand the objective of forecasting.b. Integrate demand planning and forecasting throughout the supply chain.c. Understand and identify customer segments.d. Identify and understand supplier requirements.e. Determine the appropriate forecasting technique.Answer: dDifficulty: Moderate31. The goal of any forecasting method is toa. predict the random component of demand and estimate the systematic component.b. predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component.c. predict the seasonal component of demand and estimate the random component.d. predict the random component of demand and estimate the seasonal component.e. predict the trend component of demand and estimate the random component.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate32. The multiplicative form of the systematic component of demand is shown asa. level × trend × seasonal factor.b. level + trend + seasonal factor.c. (level + trend) × seasonal factor.d. level × (trend + seasonal factor).e. (level × trend) + seasonal factor.Answer: aDifficulty: Easy33. The additive form of the systematic component of demand is shown asa. level × trend × seasonal factor.b. level + trend + seasonal factor.c. (level + trend) × seasonal factor.d. level × (trend + seasonal factor).e. (level × trend) + seasonal factor.Answer: bDifficulty: Easy34. The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown asa. level × trend × seasonal factor.b. level + trend + seasonal factor.c. (level + trend) × seasonal factor.d. level × (trend + seasonal factor).e. (level × trend) + seasonal factor.Answer: cDifficulty: Hard35. Which of the following is not a necessary step to estimate the three parameters—level, trend,and seasonal factors of the systematic component of demand?a. Deseasonalize demand and run linear regression to estimate level and trend.b. Estimate seasonal factors.c. Remove the trend factor of demand and run linear regression to estimate seasonalfactors.d. All of the above are steps.e. None of the above are steps.Answer: cDifficulty: Moderate36. A static method of forecastinga. assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematiccomponent do not vary as new demand is observed.b. assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematiccomponent vary as new demand is observed.c. the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demandobservation.d. All of the above are true.e. None of the above are true.Answer: aDifficulty: Easy37. In adaptive forecastinga. there is an assumption that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within thesystematic component do not vary as new demand is observed.b. the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component are notadjusted as new demand is observed.c. the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.d. All of the above are true.e. None of the above are true.Answer: cDifficulty: Easy38. The moving average forecast method is used whena. demand has observable trend or seasonality.b. demand has no observable trend or seasonality.c. demand has observable trend and seasonality.d. demand has no observable level or seasonality.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate39. The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate whena. demand has observable trend or seasonality.b. demand has no observable trend or seasonality.c. demand has observable trend and seasonality.d. demand has no observable level or seasonality.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate40. The trend corrected exponential smoothing (Holt’s Model) forecast method is app ropriatewhena. demand has observable trend or seasonality.b. demand has no observable trend or seasonality.c. demand has observable trend but no seasonality.d. demand has no observable level or seasonality.e. none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate41. The tr end and seasonality corrected exponential smoothing (Winter’s Model)forecast methodis appropriate whena. demand has observable trend, level, and seasonality.b. demand has no observable trend or seasonality.c. demand has observable trend but no seasonality.d. demand has no observable level or seasonality.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Moderate42. Managers perform a thorough error analysis on a forecast for which of the following keyreasons?a. To establish a closely linked systematic forecasting method to accurately predict thelevel season component of demand.b. To determine whether the current forecasting method is accurately predicting thesystematic component of demand.c. In order to develop contingency plans that account for forecast error.d. all of the abovee. b and c onlyAnswer: eDifficulty: Moderate43. The measure of forecast error where the amount of error of each forecast is squared andthen an average is calculated isa. mean squared error (MSE).b. mean absolute deviation (MAD).c. mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).d. bias.e. the tracking signal.Answer: aDifficulty: Moderate44. The measure of forecast error where the absolute amount of error of each forecast isaveraged isa. mean squared error (MSE).b. mean absolute deviation (MAD).c. mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).d. bias.e. the tracking signal.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate45. The measure of forecast error where the average absolute error of each forecast is shown asa percentage of demand isa. mean squared error (MSE).b. mean absolute deviation (MAD).c. mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).d. bias.e. the tracking signal.Answer: cDifficulty: Hard46. The measure of whether a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand isa. mean squared error (MSE).b. mean absolute deviation (MAD).c. mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).d. bias.e. the tracking signal.Answer: dDifficulty: Moderate47. The measure of how significantly a forecast method consistently over- or underestimatesdemand isa. mean squared error (MSE).b. mean absolute deviation (MAD).c. mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).d. bias.e. the tracking signal.Answer: eDifficulty: HardEssay/Problems1. Explain the role of forecasting in a supply chain.Answer: The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain. Throughout the supply chain, all push processes are performed in anticipation of customer demand, whereas all pull processes are performed in response to customerdemand. For push processes, a manager must plan the level of production. For pullprocesses, a manager must plan the level of available capacity and inventory. In bothinstances, the first step a manager must take is to forecast what customer demand will be.When each stage in the supply chain makes its own separate forecast, these forecasts are often very different. The result is a mismatch between supply and demand. When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to be much more accurate. Theresulting forecast accuracy enables supply chains to be both more responsive and moreefficient in serving their customers. Leaders in many supply chains, from PC manufacturers to packaged goods retailers, have started moving toward collaborative forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.Difficulty: Moderate2. Describe the basic characteristics of forecasts that managers should be aware of.Answer: Companies and supply chain managers should be aware of the followingcharacteristics of forecasts:1. Forecasts are always wrong and should thus include both the expected value of theforecast and a measure of forecast error. Thus, the forecast error (or demand uncertainty)must be a key input into most supply chain decisions. An estimation of demand uncertainty is unfortunately often missing from forecasts, resulting in estimates that vary widely amongdifferent stages of a supply chain that is not forecasting collaboratively.2. Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts; that is, long-termforecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-termforecasts.3. Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts, as they tendto have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean. The greater the degree of aggregation, the more accurate the forecast.4. In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from theconsumer), the greater the distortion of information they receive. One classic example of this is the bullwhip effect, where order variation is amplified as orders move further from the end customer. As a result, the further up the supply chain an enterprise exists, the higher theforecast error. Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can helpenterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.Difficulty: Moderate3. Explain the four types of forecasting methods.Answer: Forecasting methods are classified according to the following four types:1. Qualitative: Qualitative forecasting methods are primarily subjective and rely on humanjudgment. They are most appropriate when there is little historical data available or whenexperts have market intelligence that is critical in making the forecast. Such methods may be necessary to forecast demand several years into the future in a new industry.2. Time series: Time series forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.They are based on the assumption that past demand history is a good indicator of futuredemand. These methods are most appropriate when the basic demand pattern does not vary significantly from one year to the next. These are the simplest methods to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast.3. Causal: Causal forecasting methods assume that the demand forecast is highly correlatedwith certain factors in the environment (e.g., the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.).Causal forecasting methods find this correlation between demand and environmental factors and use estimates of what environmental factors will be to forecast future demand.4. Simulation: Simulation forecasting methods imitate the consumer choices that give rise todemand to arrive at a forecast. Using simulation, a firm can combine time series and causal methods to answer such questions as: What will the impact of a price promotion be? Whatwill the impact be of a competitor opening a store nearby?Difficulty: Moderate4. Explain the basic, six-step approach to help an organization perform effective forecasting.Answer: The following basic, six-step approach helps an organization perform effectiveforecasting:1. Understand the objective of forecasting. The objective of every forecast is to supportdecisions that are based on the forecast, so an important first step is to clearly identify these decisions. Examples of such decisions include how much of a particular product to make,how much to inventory, and how much to order. All parties affected by a supply chaindecision should be aware of the link between the decision and the forecast. Failure to make these decisions jointly may result in either too much or too little product in various stages of the supply chain.2. Integrate demand planning and forecasting throughout the supply chain. A companyshould link its forecast to all planning activities throughout the supply chain. These includecapacity planning, production planning, promotion planning, and purchasing, among others.This link should exist at both the information system and the human resource management level. As a variety of functions are affected by the outcomes of the planning process, it isimportant that all of them are integrated into the forecasting process. To accomplish thisintegration, it is a good idea for a firm to have a cross-functional team, with members fromeach affected function responsible for forecasting demand—and an even better idea to have members of different companies in the supply chain working together to create a forecast.3. Understand and identify customer segments. Here a firm must identify the customersegments the supply chain serves. Customers may be grouped by similarities in servicerequirements, demand volumes, order frequency, demand volatility, seasonality, and so forth.In general, companies may use different forecasting methods for different segments. A clear understanding of the customer segments facilitates an accurate and simplified approach toforecasting.4. Identify the major factors that influence the demand forecast. A proper analysis of thesefactors is central to developing an appropriate forecasting technique. The main factors。
现代物流学第七章课后习题答案
第七章供应链管理课后习题参考答案思考题1.请谈谈对供应链概念的认识。
它是一个范围更广的企业结构模式，它包含所有加盟的节点企业，从原材料的供应开始，经过链中不同企业的制造加工、组装、分销等过程直到最终用户；它不仅是一条连接供应商到用户的物料链、信息链、资金链，而且是一条增值链，物料在供应链上因加工、包装、运输等过程而增加其价值，给相关企业都带来收益；在这个网络中，每个贸易伙伴既是其客户的供应商，又是其供应商的客户，他们既向上游的贸易伙伴订购产品，又向下游的贸易伙伴供应产品。
2.供应链管理的特点是什么?（1）供应链管理是一种集成化管理模式；（2）供应链管理是全过程的战略管理；（3）供应链管理提出了全新的库存观；（4）供应链管理以最终用户为中心。
3.供应链管理的原则包括哪些？（1）以客户需求为中心；（2）相关企业间共享利益、共担风险；（3）应用信息技术、实现管理目标；（4）信息共享。
供应链管理的关键是信息共享。
4.如何实施有效的供应链管理？（1）制订供应链战略实施计划；（2）构建供应链；（3）改造供应链流程；（4）评估供应链管理绩效。
5.如何用环节法和推/拉法分析供应链流程？（1）供应链流程的环节法分析。
环节法是将供应链流程分解为一系列的环节，每一个环节用来连接供应链中两个相继出现的阶段。
供应链流程环节法分析对提高决策的可操作性很有帮助，因为它清楚地界定了供应链中每个成员的角色和责任。
假定供应链由5个阶段组成，如图7-19所示。
图7-19 供应链阶段图所有的供应链流程都可以分解成4个环节，如图7-20所示。
环节阶段顾客零售商分销商制造商供应商图7-20 供应链环节图（2）供应链流程的推/拉法分析。
推/拉法是根据其运营是响应一个顾客订购还是预期多个顾客订购，将供应链流程分为两个大类：拉动流程和推动流程。
拉动流程是由一个顾客订购启动的，而推动流程则由对多个顾客订购预期引发并运行的。
在拉动流程执行过程中，需求是已知的、确定的；而在推动流程执行过程中，需求是未知的，因此必须进行预测。
供应链管理 第七章练习与答案
一、单选题问题 1 供应链企业计划工作需要考虑的几个方面问题不包括下面哪一个？（）正确答案：供应链企业计划的方法与工具问题 2 根据供应链企业计划的决策空间，供应链企业计划的三个层次不包括（）正确答案：供应链企业部门计划问题 3 供应链企业的同步化计划要实现供应链的同步化计划，必须建立起代理之间的（）正确答案：透明的合作机制问题 4 传统的企业生产计划是以某个企业的（）需求为中心展开的，缺乏和供应商的协调正确答案：物料问题 5 传统的生产计划决策模式是一种集中式决策，而供应链管理环境下的决策模式是（）的群体决策过程正确答案：集成式问题 6 （）协调主要指完善供应链运作的实物供需条件，采用JIT生产与采购、运输调度等正确答案：非信息问题7 （）协调主要通过企业之间的生产进度的跟踪与反馈来协调各个企业的生产进度，保证按时完成用户的订单，及时交货。
正确答案：信息二、判断题问题8 一个企业的生产计划与库存优化控制只需要考虑企业内部的业务流程就可以了。
正确答案：错问题9 当一个企业的生产计划发生改变时，需要其他企业的计划也作出相应的改变，这样供应链才能获得同步的响应。
正确答案：对问题10 供应链管理环境下企业信息的传递模式是一种链式反馈机制。
正确答案：对问题11 供应链管理环境下的生产计划是在稳定的运行环境下进行的，因此要求生产计划与控制具有更高的柔性和敏捷性。
正确答案：错问题12 在供应链管理环境下，企业的生产计划编制过程具有纵向和横向的信息集成过程的特点。
正确答案：对三、名词解释问题13 ERP正确答案：RP是针对物资资源管理（物流）、人力资源管理（人流）、财务资源管理（财流）、信息资源管理（信息流）集成一体化的企业管理软件。
问题14 生产进度控制正确答案：生产进度控制，又称生产作业控制，是在生产计划执行过程中，对有关产品生产的数量和期限的控制。
其主要目的是保证完成生产作业计划所规定的产品产量和交货期限指标。
供应链管理课后习题答案
供应链（SC）第一章1、供应链：生产及流通过程中，设计将产品或服务提供给最终用户的上游和下游企业所形成的网链结构2、供应链特征：复杂性动态性交叉性面向客户需求3 、供应链类型：1）稳定SC的和动态的SC 2）平衡SC的和倾斜的 SC3）有效性SC和反应性SC4、使用环节法分析供应链流程:1)顾客订购环节（顾客抵达，顾客订单递交，顾客订货接收，顾客订单完成） 2）补充库存环节（零售订货的发起，零售订单的递交，零售订单的完成，零售订货的接收）3）生产环节（订单到达，生产安排，生产和运输，订货5、接收）4）原料获取环节5、推拉法分析供应链流程：依据相对于顾客需求的执行顺序，供应链上的所有流程可以分为两类：推动流程和拉动流程。
对顾客订单的反应启动拉动流程；对顾客订购预期的反应启动推动流程。
在拉动流程执行过程中，需求是已知的、确定的；而在推动流程执行过程中，需求是未知的，因此必须进行预测。
由于拉动流程是对顾客需求的反应，因而也可以被视为反应性流程；相应地，推动流程可以被视为推测性流程。
供应链上的推/拉边界将推动流程和拉动流程区别开来。
在戴尔公司，个人计算机组装线的起点就是推/拉边界。
个人计算机组装前的所有流程是推动流程，而所有组装过程中和此后的所有流程均是对顾客需求的反应，因而是拉动流程。
6 、供应链管理（SCM）：利用计算机网络技术全面规划供应链中的商流、物流、信息流，并进行组织、协调与控制。
7 、SCM内涵：1）信息管理 2）客户管理 3）库存管理 4)关系管理 5)风险管理8、 SCM特点：（一）与传统管理方法相比较的特点： 1）以客户为中心2)跨企业的贸易伙伴之间密切合作、共享利益和共担风险 3）集成化管理4)供应链管理是对物流的一体化管理（二）与物流管理相比较的特点1）供应链管理的互动特性2）供应链管理成为物流的高级形态 3 ）供应链管理决策的发展 4）供应链管理的协商机制 5）供应链管理强调组织外部一体化6)供应链管理对共同价值的依赖性7)供应链管理是“外源”整合组织 8）供应链管理是一个动态的响应系统9 、SCM的目标： 1）总成本最低化 2）客户服务最优化 3)总库存成本最小化4)总周期最短化5)物流质量最优化第二章1 、建树价值链的九种价值活动分为哪两类，分别包含哪些内容一）基本活动：内部物流生产作业外部物流市场和销售服务二）辅助活动：采购技术开发人力资源管理企业基础设施2 、价值分析的主要内容：1）识别价值活动 2）确定活动类型每种基本和辅助活动由三种类型：直接活动简介活动质量保证3、核心竞争力形成过程：1）锁定目标。
《全球采购与供应链管理》第七章思考题
第七章采购运作管理【本章思考题】参考答案1.在MTO、MTA和MTS三种生产模式下，企业销售人员对客户承诺的成品交货时间，哪个会最短？为什么？答：备库生产MTS最短，因为成品已经在仓库，销售人员对客户承诺的成品交货时间仅仅为出货的物流时间。
订单生产MTO最长，因为此模式下需要销售人员接单后，才能拉动生产，销售人员对客户承诺的成品交货时间包含了出货的物流时间、生产的时间和供应商备货的时间。
2.为什么跨国公司一般都采用战略采购团队和采购运作团队两个平行组织来管理供应商？答：全球采购包括了前期的战略采购（Strategic Sourcing）以及签订采购合同后的采购运作（Procurement）二大部分，因此对于供应商的管理，也被分解为了供应商发展管理和供应商日常管理二大部分。
供应商发展管理包括了供应商寻找、选择、评审、商务与合同谈判以及从战略采购层面开展的供应商发展和淘汰职责,由战略采购团队负责；而供应商日常管理的内容主要聚焦在既定采购合同条件下每笔订单的交期管理和质量管理上，由采购运作团队负责，采购方对供应商每笔交易评价的积累，将构成供应商的年度绩效以及采购方对供应商进行年度评价的依据。
这样既能发挥各个团队的专业性，又能进行流程化管理；当然，战略采购团队和采购运作团队两个平行组织来管理供应商实质上是一种分权，可以加大程度上避免采购人员过于集权和由此可能产生的不合规行为。
3. 在ERP系统中，哪些变量构成物料需求计划的需求，哪些变量构成物料需求计划的资源？答：下列变量构成物料需求计划的需求：（1）由年度销售合同（Sales Contract/Agreement）分解的月度销售额，会触发采购需求；（2）来自客户的随机采购订单(Sales Order)，会形成采购需求；（3）由生产企业根据销售市场的波动情况制定的销售预测（Sales Forecast），会形成采购需求；（4）为备库生产（MTS）准备的采购物料，会触发采购需求；（5）延迟装配生产（MTA）准备的采购物料，会触发采购需求；（6）为采购物料设置的安全库存（SS），会触发采购需求；（7）一些有效期的产品由于过期，导致需要重新采购。
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1.供应链管理环境下的同步生产的特点是什么？同步生产应遵循什么原则？
特点:1)决策信息来源是多源信息.多源信息化是供应链管理环境下的主要特征.多源信息是供应链环境下生产计划的特点.供应链环境下资源信息不仅仅来自企业内部,还来自供应商,分销商和用户.2)决策模式是群体性,分布性.个节点企业拥有暂时性的监视权和决策权,每个节点企业的生产计划决策都受到其他企业生产计划的决策的影响,需要一种协调机制和冲突解决机制.3)信息反馈机制采用递阶、链式反馈与并行、网络反馈.以团队工作为特征的多代理组织模式使供应链具有网络化结构特征,生产计划信息是沿着供应链不同的节点方向传递,信息传递频率大.4)计划运行环境不确定性、动态性.供应链管理的目的是使企业能够适应剧烈多变的市场环境需要.
遵循原则:1为了使供应链上各成员企业实现同步生产的目的（与订单相吻合），制造商适时制定生产计划，并随着客户需求的改变及时作出调整，这些计划应能实时传给供应链上各供应商，以便使供应商制定的生产计划与该计划相协调。
2必须建立起代理之间透明的合作机制.供应链企业之间的合作方式主要由同时同地\同时异地\异时同地和异时异地四种情况.因此供应链企业的合作模式为四种:同步模式,异步模式,分布式同步模式,分布式异步模式.基于多代理的供应链组织管理模式,实现了由传统的递阶控制组织模式向扁平化网络组织过渡,实现网络化管理.
2.企业要实现同步化计划要解决哪些问题？
(1)同步化供应（是服务和成本控制的一个重要目标）影响同步化供应的几个因素：1大批量订货。
2生产上维持高效率，而不是满足客户需求。
3缺少同步，使得库存水平高，和变化频繁的库存水平。
(2)可靠的、灵活的运作（是同步化的关键）可靠、灵活的运作应该主要集中于生产、物流管理、库存控制、分销。
销售与市场的角色是揭开需求。
(3)与供应商集成（是同步化运作的保障）大部分生产商经营的失败，除了内部的不稳定性因素外，就是供应的不稳定性。
应鼓励供应商去寻求减少供应链总成本的方法，和供应商共享利益。
3.SCM下生产计划有什么特点？
在供应链管理下，企业的生产计划的制定增添了新的特点：1）具有纵向和横向的信息集成过程。
纵向：上下游企业。
横向：生产类似产品的企业2）丰富了能力平衡在计划中的作用。
能力平衡：指生产能力与订单任务之间的差距。
合作企业、外包企业的生产能力都应考虑到企业的生产能力中去。
3）计划的循环过程突破了企业的限制.在企业独立运行生产计划系统时,一般有三个信息流的闭环,而且都在企业内部在供应链管理下生产计划的信息流跨越了企业,从而增添新内容.
4、资源需求计划:在闭环MRP中，把关键工作中心的负荷平衡称为资源需求计划，或称粗能力平衡，主要面向主生产计划。
能力需求计划:把全部工作中心的负荷平衡称为能力需求计划，或称细能力平衡，主要对象是相关需求件。
独立需求：指需求量和需求时间由企业外部的需求来决定。
（如：客户订购的产品。
）
相关需求：根据物料之间的结构组成关系由独立需求的物料所产生的需求。
（如：半成品、零部件、原材料等。
）。