28-29-30 Ag, O, I, 中国经济发展与转型(英文版) 教学课件
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Two reforms Technological revolution (change in technology, remember Solow model) Administrative revolution (household responsibility system, price reform;
Chinese Modern Economic History
Agriculture: Output, Inputs, and Technology Naughton, Chapter 11
2020/10/28
Chinese Modern Economic History
From 1950 to 1978, food security was always a concern in China. After 1978, food security is no longer a concern. What happened?
2020/10/28
Chinese Modern Economic History
Improved irrigation …. - “hydrologic empire” - why was the Grand Canal so important? What was its
function?
- Why is the south-north water transfer project so important?
2020/10/28
Organic fertilizers are fine, but very labor intensive to use, unpleasant, and now, not good enough. Chemical fertilizers were able to satisfy demand from farmers, and help to increase yields
All three changes - seeds, irrigation, fertilizer- were not in place until mid to late 1980s. Emergent properties - the three changes worked together to substantially improve yields. No scientist could be working on all three at once. No one predicted the impact of the changes working together. Policy could not dictate the direction of research. This is the importance of experimentation.
2020/10/28
Traditional technology in a village in linhai, in taizhou -
2020/10/28
Intercropping in Shenyang, Liaoning Province. Starter apple trees and grapes in alternating rows.
you can think of this as a change in technology)
2020/10/28
Try using this on a hillside in Zhejiang …
2020/10/28
Chinese Modern Economic History
Text uses the words “tractorization” path and “chemicalization” path.
- Some simple technologies - terracing; irrigation; multicropping (rotation, intercropping, relay cropping); price reform; household responsibility system
Intensive applications of fertilizers creates a lot of agricultural fertilizer run off- creates rivers and lakes with too many nutrients, and lowered quality of water. Think of taihu.
2020/10/28
New variety apple tree in shenyang. Tree is short- no need for a truck to pick apples; density of trees, and apples, is high; taste is good; variety of tree matures 2-3 weeks earlier than other apples,
makes this apple available for October 1
2020/10/28
Chinese Modern Economic History
Once all three sets of changes were in place, yields could increase faster. You can see the concept of latent technological gains, or emergent phenomena changes that were not obvious when researchers were working on any one technology - seeds, or fertilizers - but together, created effects larger than expected.
Try eating your tractor, when it gets old.
2020/10/28
Chinese Modern Economic History
Now, intensive agricultural technologies create some of their own problems-
Historically, China has had very good agricultural technology. Experiments with seeds, intensive use of fertilizer, and very high labor content produced high yields for crops. Research shows that east and south coastal China was as productive, GDP per person was similar, to that of southern England around 1750. Different technologies, but similar total factor productivity.
China now feeds the population of China, and exports some crops. There may not be much ability to increase yields using current technologies, but if the population is expected to level off in twenty years, the inability to increase yields or total production may not be much of a problem.
- ”hydrologic empire”
- See page 257 - “divink of von Thunen. Why do you think wheat is grown more than rice in the northeast? Some economic historians- Fernand Braudel, for one- see important historical and economic effects in what can be grown where.
This suggests the difficulty of forecasting technological change. Sometimes, the total is greater than the sum of individual parts.
But - see page 263. Use of the ox or cow to pull the plow and do hauling has some other technological advantages - provides fertilizer, does not require expensive maintenance, does not require expensive fuel, or fuel that can run out, can help provide additional oxen, can be used for personal transportation, and provide some food security.
2020/10/28
Improved seeds …
Chinese Modern Economic History
Designed to work with increased levels of fertilizers, and wheat designed not to fall over with weight of bigger seed heads (dwarf varieties) (see Norman Borlaug). Chinese researchers developed their own varieties.
Chemicals and fertilizers …. Fertilizer plants and steel plants are two favorite big scale projects in many “Big Push”
development programs - an indication of the importance of agricultural technological change
Chinese Modern Economic History
Agriculture: Output, Inputs, and Technology Naughton, Chapter 11
2020/10/28
Chinese Modern Economic History
From 1950 to 1978, food security was always a concern in China. After 1978, food security is no longer a concern. What happened?
2020/10/28
Chinese Modern Economic History
Improved irrigation …. - “hydrologic empire” - why was the Grand Canal so important? What was its
function?
- Why is the south-north water transfer project so important?
2020/10/28
Organic fertilizers are fine, but very labor intensive to use, unpleasant, and now, not good enough. Chemical fertilizers were able to satisfy demand from farmers, and help to increase yields
All three changes - seeds, irrigation, fertilizer- were not in place until mid to late 1980s. Emergent properties - the three changes worked together to substantially improve yields. No scientist could be working on all three at once. No one predicted the impact of the changes working together. Policy could not dictate the direction of research. This is the importance of experimentation.
2020/10/28
Traditional technology in a village in linhai, in taizhou -
2020/10/28
Intercropping in Shenyang, Liaoning Province. Starter apple trees and grapes in alternating rows.
you can think of this as a change in technology)
2020/10/28
Try using this on a hillside in Zhejiang …
2020/10/28
Chinese Modern Economic History
Text uses the words “tractorization” path and “chemicalization” path.
- Some simple technologies - terracing; irrigation; multicropping (rotation, intercropping, relay cropping); price reform; household responsibility system
Intensive applications of fertilizers creates a lot of agricultural fertilizer run off- creates rivers and lakes with too many nutrients, and lowered quality of water. Think of taihu.
2020/10/28
New variety apple tree in shenyang. Tree is short- no need for a truck to pick apples; density of trees, and apples, is high; taste is good; variety of tree matures 2-3 weeks earlier than other apples,
makes this apple available for October 1
2020/10/28
Chinese Modern Economic History
Once all three sets of changes were in place, yields could increase faster. You can see the concept of latent technological gains, or emergent phenomena changes that were not obvious when researchers were working on any one technology - seeds, or fertilizers - but together, created effects larger than expected.
Try eating your tractor, when it gets old.
2020/10/28
Chinese Modern Economic History
Now, intensive agricultural technologies create some of their own problems-
Historically, China has had very good agricultural technology. Experiments with seeds, intensive use of fertilizer, and very high labor content produced high yields for crops. Research shows that east and south coastal China was as productive, GDP per person was similar, to that of southern England around 1750. Different technologies, but similar total factor productivity.
China now feeds the population of China, and exports some crops. There may not be much ability to increase yields using current technologies, but if the population is expected to level off in twenty years, the inability to increase yields or total production may not be much of a problem.
- ”hydrologic empire”
- See page 257 - “divink of von Thunen. Why do you think wheat is grown more than rice in the northeast? Some economic historians- Fernand Braudel, for one- see important historical and economic effects in what can be grown where.
This suggests the difficulty of forecasting technological change. Sometimes, the total is greater than the sum of individual parts.
But - see page 263. Use of the ox or cow to pull the plow and do hauling has some other technological advantages - provides fertilizer, does not require expensive maintenance, does not require expensive fuel, or fuel that can run out, can help provide additional oxen, can be used for personal transportation, and provide some food security.
2020/10/28
Improved seeds …
Chinese Modern Economic History
Designed to work with increased levels of fertilizers, and wheat designed not to fall over with weight of bigger seed heads (dwarf varieties) (see Norman Borlaug). Chinese researchers developed their own varieties.
Chemicals and fertilizers …. Fertilizer plants and steel plants are two favorite big scale projects in many “Big Push”
development programs - an indication of the importance of agricultural technological change