基于供求模型的国际油价走势研究

摘要
世界原油价格大幅波动，使得油价问题成为全球关注的焦点。

本文回顾了研
究油价波动的相关文献，发现学术界对于原油价格波动的研究各有侧重，但缺乏对石油价格形成机制比较全面的探讨。

因此，本文利用脉冲响应函数，格兰杰因果检验等计量方法对该议题开展了较为全面的研究，主要获得了以下结论：投机因素仅仅是油价波动的跟随者，投机冲击等非基本面因素从短期来说对油价造成了一定影响，但对油价的长期走势影响有限；供给方面，OPEC组织受到了多种因素的限制，并非一个有效的卡特尔组织；需求方面，原油需求与经济发展之间有着非常密切的关系。

在上述分析结论的基础上，本文进一步构建宏观模型对油价波动进行综合考察，并利用该模型分析了世界经济活动水平（GDP）、原油库存、原油的供给价格弹性以及需求价格弹性等因素对国际原油价格的影响。

模型的实证研究结果表明由于当前原油特殊的供给和需求结构，使得原油供给和需求都缺乏价格弹性，容易因外部冲击而导致价格暴涨暴跌。

此外，原油需求对收入（GDP）冲击比较敏感，经济的增长或者衰退将是原油涨跌的主要推动力。

关键词: 原油需求;波动;弹性
II
Abstract
Nowadays, world crude oil price usually fluctuates frequently. The high oil
Price further makes it as a global concerned focus. By reviewing many literatures related to oil price fluctuation, this paper found that there were various comments of such field, while they just mainly concentrated on the research of oil supply, lacking of a comprehensive investigation on crude oil pricing mechanism . Therefore, this paper used methods of econometrical analysis and empirical study to perform a
thorough study on this topic. The conclusion of this work are as follows：First of all,
the impulse response equation, Granger causality testing and the regarding methods were employed in this article to analyze the influence of speculation in the crude oil futures market and other non-fundamental factors on the oil price. The result shows
that speculation is only a follower of oil price fluctuation. In the short-term, speculative activity really impacts oil price, but the influence on oil price’s
long-term trend is very small. In addition, qualitative analysis as well as the
co-integration test were adopted to indicate that there were various factors limiting OPEC . In terms of the oil demand structure, some simple charts and econometric analysis methods were used, which results also display a closed relationship between crude oil demand and economy development .Based on the above analysis, the paper set up a macro-equilibrium model to make a further comprehensive study on the crude oil price fluctuation . It also employed such model to analyze the influence of world GDP, inventory factor, price elasticity of crude oil supply and demand on the international oil price. The results show that crude oil price is vulnerable to up and down by the outside impact as it’s lacking of price elasticity between oil supply and demand due to its special structure. Further more, economic's growth or recession would be the main driving force for oil price fluctutation since GDP is more sensitive by the crude oil demand.
Key words: Oil demand; Fluctuation; Elasticity。